NOTHING else matters....except MERCHANDISE and MERCHANDISING. He can brag about "rebuilding" a company, with all these vaunted initiatives....but is anyone convinced he's doing that much better than where Kathleen Mason would have the company right now, if she stayed on board? My guess: She'd be at break even.....and he's at EPS of 20-25 cents. Considering all of Rouleau's bluster and hot air, we should be at 60-75 cents in trailing EPS, at this point, MINIMUM.
THE EMPEROR HAS NO CLOTHES. Rouleau's swan song is that of a siren, a harpee, a banshee, or a succubus....very alluring....but intended to MANIPULATE, ENTHRALL, and BEGUILE. What a SHAMELESS and pathetic way to wind down a career.
I agree there is a good chance they reenter here. On the other hand, they have probably lost faith in the business model themselves....and Rouleau's ability to turn it around. That is, if they thing getting this thing over 40-50 cents in EPS, any time soon, is unlikely.....do they really want to reenter at $6?
My own reentry point here is $4.00-4.50. And waiting until tax loss selling in Nov/Dec. to see it "hit bottom." But I suspect I'll find more attractive bargains in Nov/Dec. than TUES.
The new merchandising strategy has FAILED. 1) traffic is higher with the increased variety of merchandise (wider and thinner) but basket size has NOT increased. 2) distributing costs are HIGHER because of the "wider and thinner" merchandising strategy.
Rouleau continues to FRAUDULENTLY play sleight of hand with the shareholder base, shamelessly talking about all of the "wonderful initiatives" they are working on, as if everything that has been happening, the last few years, since he came on board, is EXACTLY coming off as they intended. The plunge in the stock price is the WHITE ELEPHANT IN THE ROOM, they TOTALLY IGNORED in the conference call.
This thing is, and was, pie-in-the-sky at $18. Now, it is fairly valued, based on book value, the strong balance sheet, fact that the company is nominally profitable, etc. However, my own estimate of fair value is probably somewhere between $5-9, so it's not a stock I plan on entering, at current prices.
The company is SPINNNING ITS WHEELS, and Rouleau continues to look like a rah rah rah, sis boom bah nut case. As long as he is continuing to whistle Dixie, and purvey the snake oil, I wil remain convinced that he really has NO CLUE how to turn this company around. FACT: 80% of what this company needs to do, to make money again is in the MERCHANDISING end. Higher margins, and higher sales. And that CRITICAL strategy has FAILED. All the other "fluff" that this idiot talks about, including new cash registers (now long since forgotten) is just that.....FLUFF. The proof is in the pudding. And there IS NO pudding, as it stands now. The conclusion I have been making for a year or more now stands: Tuesday Morning doesn't have the business model it used to. It is an anachronism...the concept of the "high end discounter" with "sales events" is passe.....just like the K-Mart blue light special. People "see past" that kind of gimmickry today. TUES's "no frills" approach is actually a liability.
There is no return on the assets. They have lost money, essentially for a decade or more. The offer is hardly generous....but the premium to the trading price, and getting out from being "tethered" to a failed manager, justfies taking the money and running. With gratitude. And if not gratitude, at least relief.
I agree. I own 2.5% of the public float. The only question is what the special committee will recommend. And whether or not they allow Sham to just vote the deal through, or whether a "majority of the minority" shareholders has to vote it through.
I believe this is a great arbitrage at the current price. Buy for $5.50 now. Sell for $8.75 in a few months. We KNOW the cash is real...because they paid a special $1 dividend a few years ago....which is UNHEARD of for a Chinese company.
Sham knows the non affiliated holders of this company are TIRED of the losses, and the destruction of value. With the offer being nearly 3x the trading price prior, I intend to vote my shares in favor.
And banks have given additional waivers for the meeting to occur after August 30th. (See the recent 8-K filing.)
It looks like blue skies here....and the arbs should increasingly come in and drive this stock up into the 50's.
The deal is for real. And the recent plunge in the Chinese stock market couldn't kill it. With that market now stabilizing, and Total Merchant having a passionate strategic interest in entering the U.S. market for scrap, it's hard to see why this deal will not go through.
This still looks like a great arbitrage play to me.
If you own 500,000+ shares, give me a call at 219-363-7485. This is an outrageous breach of fiduciary duty on the part of ANR management, and a BETRAYAL of obligations to shareholders. The company has 1 billion in cash, and a $100 Million payment due on August 1st. To CHOOSE to "default", in order to restructure the balance sheet, is an OUTRAGEOUS miscarriage of justice and fair play. Fore Motor built up a ton of liquidity, and made it THROUGH the 2009 recession. Alpha could do the same thing....but instead, management is selling their souls and being BRIBED by debt holders, to give away the company, in exchange for keeping their jobs. This is PURE CORRUPTION. The equityholders need to FIGHT. This thing could go for another 2 years or so, before running out of cash, and it should be the equityholders' to control until then. Management "forcing" a bankruptcy for their own selfish interest is a sleazy self interested betrayal.
Comment #26 on Seeking Alpha in my article. (They would not let me post an entirely new article.)
In the update, I upped my production guidance range for the year to 65,000-68,000 ounces....and maintained an EPS estimate for Claude of "up to 10 cents," Canadian, for this year.
I believe the stock can trade to $1+ Canadian, in about 6 months. That would be a 50%+ gain from here.
I want to emphasize to everyone, again, that Santoy Gap is truly a GAME CHANGER for Claude.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
Just because you are thinking something...DOESN'T mean you should say it.
You are clogging up this message board with mostly garbage...and are eminently worthy of being ignored.
Deal likely to close in 2 months. Buy here and Capture 5 cents...which equates to a 50%+ annualized return. Everyone wants this deal to happen....company, creditors, and arbitrageurs....and a lot of stock is already in the hands of arbitrageurs.
People are assuming because the buyer is Chinese, that a "risk premium" needs to be priced in. But if you check the background of the buyer, you will see that this represents a high profile entry into the U.S. Marketplace. And the buyer is well heeled.
And as far as the lawyers go, good luck to them; This is clearly a fully shopped, full and fair auction, and any effort to hamstring the deal is totally foolhardy, in this shareholder's book. (I have "gone to appraisal" on other deals, where I felt I wasn't getting a fair price...but not this one.) I'm voting IN FAVOR.
Can anyone lay out your estimates of cash available ($171 million?), and how fast they will burn, going forward? And how much runway they theoretically have?
Also, can anyone discuss the range of penalties most likely on the FCPA thing?
Refi agreement looks good enough, all in all. Provides a decent amount of runway. Willing to roll the dice on the FCPA thing, since they intend to issue an internal report by end of June.
If FCPA is resolved, stock will probably go $3-4, but really have no idea how long the govt will take to do its thing on this.
Also, resolution of FCPA, in a favorable manner, probably turns KEG into an immediate buyout candidate.
Stick it ina drawer for a couple years, and you probably have a $6-10 stock.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
I agree. Smacys is very useful and in "the 2%." He is one of the better, or even best, microcap value investors I have known. His only weakness is holding onto stocks too long for (primarily) "sentimental" reasons (not wanting to "miss out" on more momentum-based gains).....and razzing people on message boards, sometimes, for reasons that, to me, seem to exclusively relate to a personal psychological need. But, you are right, all in all, he deserves his due. You just need to look past his occassional desire to "drag other people down," or expose them as "frauds" or "hypocrites" or "charlatans"....in order to pump himself up.
Fair disclosure: you are right....i only made "peanuts" on my longstanding rec to short TUES....because i was not short when the plunge happened, but covered, instead, for a quick gain at $17, on the small short position i had.
Rouleau is like a DEER IN HEADLIGHTS, at this point. Shameless huckster.....with "low hanging fruit" abounding....2 1/2 years after he came on board. PURE flim flam. Delighted to see the stock is rightly punishing his FAILURES.
Yes, but you also fail to mention that you got into this stock BECAUSE OF ME. And blamed me for "the other ones" that didn't go up, but took the credit for the ones that did.
....of what kind of effect a, say, 200 basis point increase in interest rates would have on their accumulated comprehensive other income (attributed to pensions)?
Global cyclical recovery continuing. With increased pricing power across most or all of their segments. I believe the increased buyback is a mark of management's confidence in the future...despite recent disappointments.
In addition, the potential gains from higher interest rates, vis a vis their pension plan, are SIZABLE.
Finally, the company is a candidate for a takeover or breakup.
Of course, I could be wrong, and margins could continue to disappoint, in their core (declining) newsprint business. But to me, this is a great "cigar butt" Graham & Dodd style play.
i'm not necessarily shooting for the fences. $16-18 in 6-12 months would be good enough. But it could be $20-30 in the next 1-2 years.
Sentiment: Strong Buy