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CC MEDİA HOLDİNG CLA Message Board

longtimefollower 80 posts  |  Last Activity: 21 hours ago Member since: May 12, 2000
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  • Reply to

    I increased my position 25% today.

    by longtimefollower Apr 25, 2016 4:43 PM
    longtimefollower longtimefollower 21 hours ago Flag

    I think somebody wanted to get out on the earnings release.

    Stocks don't always go up or down on the "schedule" one expects. But one thing is for sure: the follow on newsprint price increase is better than a sharp stick in the eye.

    Question: If the company is pretty much doing similarly to how it was in the year ago quarter, and the stock was $18 then, and quarterly comparisons should start getting better, comparatively, especially starting in the back half...why is that not being factored into the stock price?

    The announcement of a second newsprint price increase, and closing of the Augusta mill, shows the industry is and will collectively do what it needs to, to maintain high capacity utilization, and make a return to the $580 to $600 per ton price range for newsprint, all the more likely.

  • On April 26, Resolute announced a $15/ton increase effective June1st, to be followed by another $15/ton increase on July 1st. Reported on various websites.

    Keep in mind that the strengthening CAN $ may be part of the spur for this, and all of the increase will not drop to the bottom line, for the company's Canadian mills, when factoring in the foreign exchange.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • longtimefollower by longtimefollower May 4, 2016 11:13 PM Flag

    At an average price of $6 or so. At that rate, they will buy back about 10% of the outstanding this year, and STILL have used up only 60% of the authorization.

    Even better, since Garrison and his affiliates own about 4.6 million shares, we are looking at about 15 million shares in the freely floating share base. And on THAT basis, at the current rate of buyback, they could buy in more like 13% of the "freely floating" shares this year.

    UPshot: If it drops to $6, consider it a gift, and a good place to again add....since, between an expectation of continued support from the buyback, as well as the continued turnaround potential, along with the continued net working capital BARGAIN this stock represents, should provide a huge measure of a MARGIN OF SAFETY.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Love the fact this message board is dead.

    by longtimefollower Mar 19, 2016 1:42 PM
    longtimefollower longtimefollower May 4, 2016 10:50 PM Flag

    Poor baby. They bought back 500k shares or so over the last 4 months. Better than a dividend....especially if they keep buying. And they bought shares SINCE quarter end...which means they are willing to PAY UP. That is BULLISH...because there are still a BOATLOAD of shares to be bought on the remaining buyback.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    KOPN Short Interest - 4/15/16

    by haschultz1 Apr 27, 2016 10:52 PM
    longtimefollower longtimefollower May 4, 2016 7:45 AM Flag

    GOod catch. The addl shorting has only added more pressure on the stock. I note, too, that State Street, in an early 13F filing, sold over 1 million shares in Q1.

    It seems to me there has been little new institutional interest in buying this stock, the last several months....and rumor has it that the T Rowe price fund manager that "liked" this stock left a while back, and the analyst for T Rowe price that followed the company is also gone....which may explain their indiscriminate dumping. Once they are "done," and I would think we wouldn't be too terribly far from that point, I think this stock could bounce back to $2.50-3.00......like almost every other stock that has bounced off its February lows, and is back to where it was late last year. The notion that KOPN should be one of the few exceptions is patently absurd...especially since their cash hoard and new product cycle should be more deterministic of the stock's price, versus the fact that the bottom line numbers were nasty in Q4 2015. (THe "sizzle" could easily return here...especially if they get a contract announcement or two.)

    In the meantime, as we wait, I would hardly be surprised to see this thing bought out at $3+.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • longtimefollower by longtimefollower May 3, 2016 12:39 AM Flag

    Sold for $1.9 B. Revenues of that division are $1.5 B annualized.

    If RFP's pulp division were simply valued at sales, the division would be worth $900 milion, or $9 per share. (Of course, this doesn't account for any company debt paydown.)

    I'm kind of surprised RFP didn't "pop" on the announcement. WY is the #1 market pulp player in North America. And RFP is #3. IP's buying WY's pulp operations consolidates the industry, and, all other things being equal, should marginally enhance pricing power for RFP in market pulp.

  • longtimefollower by longtimefollower May 2, 2016 11:49 PM Flag

    I'll buy if it drops back to $4.00-4.05. Maybe.

  • longtimefollower longtimefollower Apr 29, 2016 5:53 PM Flag

    Does anyone know if there is a reason to think Fan might be PRECLUDED from buying stock? Pending contracts, inside info, etc.? One would think if he liked it at $2.85 last August, he would love it a hell of a lot more at$1.65 now.

  • Reply to

    Such an age-old game. Why on Earth would

    by uptabdowntab Apr 26, 2016 5:41 PM
    longtimefollower longtimefollower Apr 27, 2016 9:39 AM Flag

    I'm not sure that is what is going on. I think they actually believe this is such a "dog" now, such that the rally in the stock price from the $3.80 low, to the $6.80 high, warranted a downgrade. That's silly, because we are not even remotely close to fair value......but the analysts are also looking at a modestly disappointing U.S. Housing starts number....and fearful that means the rally in lumber prices this year will fail.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • longtimefollower by longtimefollower Apr 25, 2016 4:43 PM Flag

    From $5.52-5.70. I see this as a gift. I think $5.50 is likely to be a rock solid bottom....unless the market collapses, of course, in which $5'ish looks really good.

    I now have about 15% of my investible net worth in this one.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Doubling down?

    by keyes_fred Apr 25, 2016 9:46 AM
    longtimefollower longtimefollower Apr 25, 2016 4:41 PM Flag

    RBC and who else?

  • Reply to

    The race against time continues.

    by longtimefollower Apr 20, 2016 11:37 AM
    longtimefollower longtimefollower Apr 24, 2016 10:34 AM Flag

    Because it is carried at historical cost, right?

  • Reply to

    Norske Skog 1st quarter earnings release.

    by longtimefollower Apr 23, 2016 3:01 AM
    longtimefollower longtimefollower Apr 23, 2016 5:45 PM Flag

    I should have said they are "east of the pond." Not west.

  • ....for May 1st. This includes Resolutes Ponderay mill. Announced at the beginning of April.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • longtimefollower by longtimefollower Apr 23, 2016 3:01 AM Flag

    They are the 2nd largest global newsprint producer (after Resolute). Their operations are west of "the pond," primarily in Norway. Amazingly, they are saying that they were operating at 100% of capacity utilization on newsprint in Q1 2016! And that they estimate that Europe and North America combined were operating at 95% in Q1 2016.

    They, RFP, and others, are continuing to look to convert newsprint mills to consumer tissue, in order to continue to rein in the supply of newsprint. They expect a contination of capacity utilization of well above 90% through 2017, and a favorable pricing environment.

    A favorable environment for newsprint in Europe HAS to be positive for the environment in North America. The market is the most balanced it has been in several years.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • These rubes and "hayseeds" won't know what hit them.

  • Reply to

    spread of 42 cent right now

    by lm38mul Apr 22, 2016 11:05 AM
    longtimefollower longtimefollower Apr 22, 2016 11:09 AM Flag

    So play marketmaker and capture that spread for yourself.

  • longtimefollower by longtimefollower Apr 22, 2016 11:08 AM Flag

    Completely asinine. DElusional. GRandiose. WAste of money.

    THe only one that is going to make money on this deal is Nick Jonas.

    Apparently, Sharp is now taking management advice from his 16 year old daughter. Brilliant.

    It, along with his mealy mouthed babbling in the conference call, makes me not want to reenter, unless it drops in to the mid $10's or less.

    This management team is completely boneheaded, and the business has suffered from lousy returns forever. (WHy can they only earn $1 in EPS annually, with a $20 book value? Why is a 5% ROE acceptable??)

    This company needs to be taken out of its misery, and someone needs to swoop in and buy this thing out for $16.50. It needs to be part of a larger entity. Watching Sharp & Co. fiddle around with the thing, and think they are good enough for the shareholders, is Like being put in a straitjacket. And the Nick Jonas thing shows that the guy is now totally out in left field.

    FInally, WHAT is the exact excuse they didn't buy back stock over the prior months? Locked out? WHY??

  • longtimefollower by longtimefollower Apr 22, 2016 10:36 AM Flag

    Don't miss it. IMHO?

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • longtimefollower by longtimefollower Apr 20, 2016 11:37 AM Flag

    $56 million in trailing 12 month FCF. But $900 million in debt. And print revenue declines continue to KILL them.

    Question: Does anyone have ANY estimated range of what the non-newspaper digital (i.e. CareerBuilder) are worth? If they could get, say, $500 million for all of this stuff, and monetize another $100 million in real estate for the parent company, wouldn't that put the company in a much different place?

    Are there ANY private market value estimates for CareerBuilder?