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longtimefollower 42 posts  |  Last Activity: Feb 7, 2016 3:56 PM Member since: May 12, 2000
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  • longtimefollower by longtimefollower Jan 30, 2016 12:11 AM Flag

    Higher markdowns, and lower initial markups, is more of the same bs. The same store sales increases mean NOTHING, if gross margin dollars are down as much as they are. Operating expenses much higher. AZ distribution center delayed.

    I'm not convinced that Becker won't be changing his mind, and waiting for the low $4's before buying more. (One wonders if he regrets his purchases in the low $5's.) I suspect you will see MORE of the institutions that loved this as a "darling" growth stock throwing in the towel.

    I think it's "dead money" between $4 and 6, for the rest of this year. Possibly $5 and $6....but only if Becker continues to support it in the low $5's.

    There is a very real question, which becomes ever more larger, which each passing quarter, on whether there really is any NICHE left for this company. I believe it is marginal at best, and they are destined for low to mid single digit ROE going forward, which a continued slow erosion in their ability to earn even those kinds of returns.

    If Becker can find someone to buy it out at $7 or higher, I think he should take it.

    There are definitely better buys out there than this one.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    Could this quarter be a blowout positive ?

    by smaycs4 Jan 28, 2016 4:32 PM
    longtimefollower longtimefollower Jan 29, 2016 2:11 AM Flag

    I don't think so. I think Christmas was ho-hum. This is a great swing trade stock, and selling at $6.25-6.95, and buying at $5.75 and down seems like the right strategy for now.

  • longtimefollower by longtimefollower Nov 12, 2015 12:38 AM Flag

    "Our production and cost performance are sustainable." And "Claude is a sustainable 70k ounce a year producer."

    This is ALL you need to know to know that Claude remains dramatically undervalued, relative to its expected future free cash flows. The possibility of achieving a 20% increase in mill throughput with a mere $2-3 million in capex (as stated in the conf call), along with the fact that we can drill and explore SO cheaply with our in house drill program.....tells me that if this stock doesn't trade up closer to fair value soon (which is at least $1.25 Canadian in my book), I would put a greater than 50/50 likelihood that someone steps in to buy this company in the next 6 months.

    Do i regret selling, or having to sell, all the shares i did over the last couple years, after having once owned over 5.0% of this company? YES I DO. But i am happy that i still have 10% of my portfolio in it!

    This company's operational performance over the last year has been nothing short of astonishing....ESPECIALLY since the long term picture has gotten so dramatically better...and current production, and costs, are
    NOT a flash in the pan.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • longtimefollower by longtimefollower Dec 31, 2015 7:06 PM Flag

    This thing has fleas!

    Haven't had involvement in a good long while. Waiting for $8.50-8.75, and down, to enter. (It may or may not get that low.)

    I'm still not convinced that their going from 16 million shares out, to 38 million, over the last several years, did right by shareholders, considering how undervalued those shares have been, relative to asset value...

    ...But they never really primarily cared about creating shareholder value here. They have primarily cared about damning the torpedoes of their self respect as fiduciaries, and growing this thing "no matter what." And doing that for HPT. The master/slave relationship has really been quite transparent...which means sub-par returns on assets and equity will continue to be the order of the day here, as the management and other interlocks between TA and HPT continue to stink up the place. Which is why I require drastic undervaluation to again enter. I view this company is a "ward" of are its executives. And one must never forget that. About the only "nice" thing about being a ward of HPT was the willingness of "the master" to cut TA that rent deal, when it looked like the company would be in deep doo doo, back 5 or so years ago.

    But it can be a great trading vehicle, at the very least, and is likely to be "kept alive forever," to feed its host. But it always feels dirty to own this...

  • Reply to

    I got out today.

    by longtimefollower Jan 30, 2016 12:11 AM
    longtimefollower longtimefollower Jan 31, 2016 11:46 PM Flag

    I've been trading it, in and out a number of times over the last couple months. No loss here.

    I think the 8.4% means nothing, with gross margin dollars subtantially DOWN. They are not running the business right. Traffic is up, but average ticket is flat or down slightly. People are finding more "bargains," and coming back more often....but they are not buying ENOUGH MORE, to move the needle. Basically, the "broader and wider" strategy, with "better bargains right off the bat," has added to costs, and lowered initial markup. They are, simply put, running in place, or spinning their wheels. They have NOT found a successful merchandising strategy, and the fact that all the other things that Rouleau did to improve operations (which he deserves credit for) have NOT helped them enough to boost profits, shows that the business model continues to be a very challenging one. No, they are not going bankrupt, over night, and yes, they should be able to continue to achieve marginal profitability.....but every single effort to make this thing "work," many of them quite valiant and laudable, has effectively resulted in "pushing on a string."

    Your "he could sell it for $9-10" is pulling a number out of a hat. The fact that a premier guy like Rouleau failed, means that any other private equity guys who want to take a swing at the thing would want to pay, in my view, no more than $6-7 for it. Becker's massive buying in the low $5's is certainly interesting, but I'm going to trust myself here. I want to see if these bad results, and poor guidance for the near term, bring out significant sellers from the old "suckers," who are still around, that were lured in by Rouleau's outrageous, and totally misplaced, bombast.

    Fair value is $5-6.50. We are in the middle of that range. And near term, unless Becker supports it, it could drop to $4.00-4.50. I will continue to view this as a "swing trade" stock, on any material breaks below $5. Weak hold/mild sell.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • longtimefollower by longtimefollower Nov 13, 2015 1:53 PM Flag

    I'm buying.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    What happened?

    by longtimefollower Jan 8, 2016 12:30 AM
    longtimefollower longtimefollower Jan 8, 2016 12:30 AM Flag

    I bought more at $5.75 today, btw.

  • longtimefollower by longtimefollower Jan 6, 2016 8:16 PM Flag

    Somebody knows something. Apparently, Becker and crew don't seem as averse to leaks as Rouleau did.

  • Reply to

    Winter Resupply Program Coming Soon

    by lookin_2_score Nov 11, 2015 2:38 PM
    longtimefollower longtimefollower Nov 12, 2015 12:26 AM Flag

    You POS.

  • And he almost sounds like he is in denial in the earnings conference call, with loads of MISPLACED BABBLING OPTIMISM about all of the "wonderful initiatives" PIR has been engaging in. (If I hear one more utterance about "omni-channel," I am just going to throw up.)

    No, Mr. Smith, it is about MERCHANDISING and BUYING, and you obviously took your eye off the ball. FIRE your head merchant, or get someone in there who can make PIR relevant again. Also criminal is that the Chinese currency has weakened by a high single digit percent, in the the last 18 months, which should have been a TAILWIND at the company's back. What happened there.

    I am considering entering this stock, but but what sickens me is the lack of any real EXPLANATION for what has happened here....and the propounding of a whole host of what sound like EXCUSES and DEFLECTIONS.

    Has Smith lost his moxie? Where is the insider open market buying, after the earnings release? Is the window currently closed? I want to see these guys get OFF THEIR BUTTS, and buy stock in the open market at $5.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • ....all the old $1.2 billion in unsecured debt eliminated, and $450 million in NEW secured money put in. Yet, even with the TOTAL RECAPITALIZATION of the company (including effectively converting $1.2 billion from debt to equity), the stock is trading for the same absolute price ($2.50) for what it was a year ago, before the "final swoon"? That seems absolutely insane. If there is $1.2 billion in "additional equity" now, and the current operation burn may only be $35 million a quarter (dropping to $25 million once the Highlander is operating), it hardly seems like a doomsday scenrio...and there seems a rather generous amount of time for turnaround.

    I love the "option" value here. The operating leverage is enormous. I also wonder what happens in January, when the debt holders that were converted to equity, and are taking tax losses now, stop selling.

    I'm delighted for a "2nd bite at the apple," at these prices. Astonished, really.

  • Reply to

    longtimefollower strikes again

    by keyes_fred Dec 7, 2015 10:29 AM
    longtimefollower longtimefollower Dec 13, 2015 12:55 AM Flag

    Thanks, Fred. I own 2.5% of the nonaffiliated sham shares.

    I felt confident in the arbitrage opportunity here. Finally something going my way again...along with htch.

  • Reply to

    Becker as CEO

    by smaycs4 Dec 14, 2015 11:13 AM
    longtimefollower longtimefollower Dec 14, 2015 3:35 PM Flag

    He needs a great merchandiser and buyer to get on board. That's their key problem. Rouleau cleaned up operations wonderfully, but there is simply nothing compelling to the shopping experience, from a merchandising perspective. That having been said, i like being vested with becker, snd bought more today.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Becker is back on the bandwagon

    by smaycs4 Jan 13, 2016 7:29 PM
    longtimefollower longtimefollower Jan 15, 2016 12:01 AM Flag

    Mind you, i look at Becker's buying as huge. He bought 2% of the outstanding over just a few trading days....or over $5 million worth of stock!

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Idiots! If they don't turn around the earnings in calendar 2016, the CEO should be FIRED for the insanity of buying back stock like there was no if that was the best use of capital?! And watch, because of the drastic decline in results, they will STOP buying back stock now, at $5...when they were buying it back at $15+ before a year or so ago. If that isn't committing hiri kiri, I don't know what is. Now these idiots raise the dividend a penny, when they should have REDUCED it to a penny a quarter, and pledged to put all of that money into an additional stock buyback. Capital allocation 101. Duh.

  • longtimefollower by longtimefollower Dec 25, 2015 4:45 AM Flag

    ....when it cast this garbage off, 20 or so years ago now.

    Goodbye Imation. You get the all-time "value trap" booby prize.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • longtimefollower by longtimefollower Dec 25, 2015 4:20 AM Flag

    What a sad way to go out. Massive dilution for the believers and loyalists. This wasn't what was intended at all. Astonished, and terribly disappointed, that Pappajohn himself wasn't willing to be a low rate "backstop" lender, to fund the purchase of the centers. It's not like it would break him.

  • Reply to

    Good news this morning ! $ipi

    by kathybowers1961 Jan 15, 2016 9:14 AM
    longtimefollower longtimefollower Jan 16, 2016 12:40 AM Flag

    I agree. I added some also. The risk here, with the credit modifications, is suddenly DRASTICALLY reduced. And that should be immediately priced in to the stock. But it wasn't, because the market was down so much. 2016 is a "transition" year. 2017 EBITDA will be significantly higher. This stock is pricing in enormous financial risk, that just doesn't exist. Insiders own like 25% of the company, and the founder bought a lot of stock in the open market, the last few months. My own expectation is this will be a $4-5 stock, in 2-6 months, and $6-10 in 12-18 months. Meanwhile, it could be an easy buyout candidate....if they can just show that they can maintain positive cash flows. This is one of my TOP FIVE stocks right now.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • longtimefollower by longtimefollower Jan 8, 2016 12:30 AM Flag

    I thought it was cheap enough at $6.75. The price, relative to net working capital, book value, historical prices, and historical earnings, is insane. Insiders are buying material amounts in the open market here.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • longtimefollower longtimefollower Dec 27, 2015 12:28 PM Flag

    The increase in op. inc. was because of gain on sale of equipment. They were DOWN without that.