Well, you make a fair point about growth over a 3-5 year time frame...but the notion that such growth is predictable here, or that it should take Rouleau a total of 5-7 years at the helm to right this ship fully, is part of the "make believe" reality. As it stands now, he has had over 2 years, has TOTALLY remerchandised the company...and is earning about a 6% ROE, having boosted overall eps from about 15 cents annually under Mason, to maybe 35 cents now. With the litany of DRAMATIC things he has done to "remake" this thing, why aren't we seeing more results....and more significantly, why is this FLIM FLAM ARTIST now suddenly talking about "low hanging fruit"? I say, with regard to TUES at least, that Rouleau is a fraud, at this point. But he is concerned about his past reputation, and doesn't want to go out with a DUD as his swan song. So he's "stalling for time." It's obvious.
"Much of the Street" is merely the "me too" mutual funds, and people that have "made money on Rouleau at Michael's" that have naively piled in here. "Just a year off" is a total rationalization. For you to ignore that he has had OVER 2 years to fix merchandising, and is basically PUSHING ON A STRING is, frankly, delusional. The improvement, to date, financially, has been NOMINAL, MODEST, and MEAGER.
Your looking at cost of capital is even more illogical. It's not about cost of capital in holding a stock. It is about OPPORTUNITY COST. Just because you are LAZY to find a better idea, or FEARFUL that after having your remaining money tied up here so long, you'd "hate to" pull out and "miss" something good....that is not a mark of a wise investor, to me. That is someone who is controlled by his emotions. A "negative" emotion.
$10 is not a bargain. $10 is more than fair valuation. 1 1/2x book, and 18x the 55-65 cents in EPS I expect them to earn NEXT year.
You should be paying attention to Becker Drapkin. They got out totally. And never got back in. They know that they were LUCKY.
Well, anything is POSSIBLE. The absurdity of Sterne Agee is that they would BELIEVE, when Rouleau has had over two years, and has BARELY moved the needle where it counts....and that is overall merchandise margin. The company should be back at 75 cents in EPS this fiscal year, minimum, to give Rouleau a BASE credibility. But we will probably be around half that.
The stock is worth $10. Tops.
Looks attractive. But I'm not in the name currently. A bit thin for me, these days. But great for smaller players.
I think what is going to make the difference here is q2 production. We've seen volatility the last couple quarters...disappointing q4..spectacular q1. Is q2 going to be 14,000 ounces....or 18,000 ounces? The difference between the two would allow the market to "decide" whether "something just over 65,000" is the number for this year on production....or whether management is "sandbagging," again, like last year, and they are going to beat the guidance on an "outsized" basis. Stay tuned.
This is also a great "head start" on the year, so I personally think that upping to 65,000-70,000 ounces for the year is reasonable.
The company should be ENORMOUSLY profitable in Q1. That is very likely to get us some additional attention, from those who are still not, quite, paying attention.
With gold back up to $1215, and the company's reserve grade up to over 7 g/t, I am increasingly comfortable that they will come in somewhere around my 10 cent EPS (Canadian) target for the year. Slap a 10-12 PE on that (probably conservative), and that gets you a $1.00-1.20 CAN stock, or roughly .80-1.00 U.S.
We may be digesting recent gains now....but I believe this equity has lots more to go. Best of all, it has the "Big Mo." YOU CAN'T ARGUE WITH GARGANTUAN FREE CASH FLOW.....and who ever heard of a gold miner selling at 6x current year earnings??
You lost a ton of money, and you're bitter. We GET it. But that has NOTHING to do with where the stock price of ANR goes from here. Silly.
Sterne Agee is delusional. How does the "focus on home products" help TUES. If Sterne Agee was paying any attention, they would realize that places like Home Goods have driven a stake through TUES's heart, on maintaining the profitability of its home goods lines. As has BBBY, ad nauseum.
$2.50 in five years is a nice concept, but you may as well draw a rabbit out of a hat. Agee should be paying more attention to Rouleau's FAILED PROMISES, and "pay no attention to the man behind the curtain" flim flam, in evaluating the likelihood of this thing earning $2.50 in EPS in 5 years. Such "predictions" are PURE speculation, and, in that sense, a TOTAL EMBARRASSMENT to that firm's name, imho. Who would want to BUY this stock on a prediction of what happens in 5 years such as this, when Rouleau has struggled MIGHTILY to get the gross margins going on the merchandising side. What POSSIBLE basis is there to project $2.50 in eps, 5 years out. Laughable.
Looking for an opportunity to reshort at $18-19.
Sentiment: Strong Sell
I already told you how ANR can further improve its financial position; it has roughly $300 million in addl priority lien debt it can issue to buy back more of the unsecureds.
I still yawn at #4, because i disagree with your "dr. Doom" view of the global economy. Steel demand will be UP this year, and met coal supplied will be flat to down, bringing that market into balance. The fact that the pricing index for the high end met coal ANR supplies has been in a range from $110 to $115, for the last year now, and that the oil price collapse and collapse in thermal coal prices couldn't cause a further downdraft in mey coal, shows we are likely AT the bottom...for Atlantic Basin met coal anyway.
Alpha is carrying like 80% net debt to equity now, vs like 200% at ACI, and 600% at WLT. I view ANR as much more reasonably leveraged, comparec to those two....and the LEAST LIKELY to have to undergo a major financial restructuring, where shareholders get their wings clipped.
I understand your #6 impacts the mood of the market...but that is exactly why i LOVE Alpha. I AM A CONTRARIAN!!
Sentiment: Strong Buy
That is false. Between continued capacity reductions, and modest global growth in steel output, met coal is expected, by many inside the industry, to come into balance sometime in the 2nd half of this year. And Glencore's cutting production of all coal (primarily thermal) 15% this year (keeping in mind they are the world's largest coal producer) is NOT to be sneezed at. I'm guessing anr is a $20 stock in 2 years.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
1. Supplies of natural gas, as a byproduct of fracking and shale plays, will be going down with crude prices. So natural gas supplies will be dropping. Plus, ANR is half met coal, and nat gas is IRRELEVANT to met coal demand.
2. Met coal supply and demand coming into balance in 2nd half of this year, especially for the Atlantic Basin. Pricing for high grade met coal has been essentially stable between $110 and $115 for the last year, and fixed price contracts are holding up much better than spot deals. Dumping will be addressed by tarriffs.
3. That's an exaggeration. But even if true, so what. Coal still 38% of u.s. Power production. Will be needed for a LONG time...and producers are not going to sell at a loss forever.
4. YAWN. Not true. Not relevant.
5. Again, producers not willing to run at losses forever....and met coal coming into balance by end of this year, with capacity reductions.
6. Way WAY overblown....and actually creates a DELICIOUS CONTRARIAN OPPORTUNITY in reasonably leveraged coal companies like ANR.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
Love the "accretive" to book value nature of the deal, and overall total leverage reduction. LOVE the fact that no equity or warrants WHATSOEVER were issued in these deals. To me, this shows they are FULLY in control of their own destiny, and FULLY intend on "defending" the value of their equity, for the shareholders...until they run out of cash. And with over $1 billion in a "cash firewall," and no significant debt maturities until Dec. 2017, my guess is we have a full TWO AND 1/2 YEARS OF RUNWAY...and that assumes NO improvement in met coal prices (which is absurd).
Meanwhile, we have another $300 or so million in additional "priority lien" debt they can issue....so we may very well be in a position to "soak up" ANOTHER $700-900 million in debt, if the deals are out there. And what I ESPECIALLY love about this situation is that any unsecured debt holders that remain out there now know that Alpha CAN AND WILL issue new secured debt, that ends up sticking the unsecured holders EVER FURTHER BACK IN LINE...behind the "new" secured debt holders. Sorry boys, but that's the way the cookie crumbles. To me, WISE unsecured debt holders, who are risk averse, should now be inclined to do their own private sales back to Alpha....lest they be placed in an even MORE PRECARIOUS "super subordinated" position.
In any case, my own belief is that the company "makes it," and that this is a $6-10 stock in 8-15 months. The more the company pays down debt this way, the more it can inherently "afford" the debt it carries....especially when the coal market turns around.
Will this result in an eventual $300 million extraordinary gain to the company, and concomitant increase in tangible equity? I believe so!
This stock is now a full 12% of my portfolio, and i'll take it much higher, on any follow on deal.
Financial flexibility is KING, and ANR's evidencing that, and being ignored by the street, is ABSURD. The stock should have popped to $1.50 on this news, in my book.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
Well, you'll end up never buying the stock, because it misses your buy price by PENNIES....and then we'll never hear from you when the stock is $6-10 in 6-12 months. If you have NO position here, that smacks to me of a rank amateur.
You won't be right, enough times, if you are naive and lucky. Sophisticated and principled will win out, over the long run.
Management history of dilutive share issuances, for one. Not too much else.
I own 8 million shares, or 3% of the company.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
A very nice birthday present. High of 61 cents on Canada (with very little size offered there when i checked, so probably no significant overhead resistance), and a high of 49 cents in the U.S. Total volume of around 1 million shares.
Only 600k volume on Canada today. That is peanuts. Modest corrective "backing and filling" action is healthy. If it goes back to 40-41 cents U.S., I'm buying.