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longtimefollower 80 posts  |  Last Activity: May 18, 2016 11:44 AM Member since: May 12, 2000
  • Reply to

    The race against time continues.

    by longtimefollower Apr 20, 2016 11:37 AM
    longtimefollower longtimefollower Apr 24, 2016 10:34 AM Flag

    Because it is carried at historical cost, right?

  • Reply to

    Norske Skog 1st quarter earnings release.

    by longtimefollower Apr 23, 2016 3:01 AM
    longtimefollower longtimefollower Apr 23, 2016 5:45 PM Flag

    I should have said they are "east of the pond." Not west.

  • ....for May 1st. This includes Resolutes Ponderay mill. Announced at the beginning of April.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • longtimefollower by longtimefollower Apr 23, 2016 3:01 AM Flag

    They are the 2nd largest global newsprint producer (after Resolute). Their operations are west of "the pond," primarily in Norway. Amazingly, they are saying that they were operating at 100% of capacity utilization on newsprint in Q1 2016! And that they estimate that Europe and North America combined were operating at 95% in Q1 2016.

    They, RFP, and others, are continuing to look to convert newsprint mills to consumer tissue, in order to continue to rein in the supply of newsprint. They expect a contination of capacity utilization of well above 90% through 2017, and a favorable pricing environment.

    A favorable environment for newsprint in Europe HAS to be positive for the environment in North America. The market is the most balanced it has been in several years.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • These rubes and "hayseeds" won't know what hit them.

  • Reply to

    spread of 42 cent right now

    by lm38mul Apr 22, 2016 11:05 AM
    longtimefollower longtimefollower Apr 22, 2016 11:09 AM Flag

    So play marketmaker and capture that spread for yourself.

  • longtimefollower by longtimefollower Apr 22, 2016 11:08 AM Flag

    Completely asinine. DElusional. GRandiose. WAste of money.

    THe only one that is going to make money on this deal is Nick Jonas.

    Apparently, Sharp is now taking management advice from his 16 year old daughter. Brilliant.

    It, along with his mealy mouthed babbling in the conference call, makes me not want to reenter, unless it drops in to the mid $10's or less.

    This management team is completely boneheaded, and the business has suffered from lousy returns forever. (WHy can they only earn $1 in EPS annually, with a $20 book value? Why is a 5% ROE acceptable??)

    This company needs to be taken out of its misery, and someone needs to swoop in and buy this thing out for $16.50. It needs to be part of a larger entity. Watching Sharp & Co. fiddle around with the thing, and think they are good enough for the shareholders, is Like being put in a straitjacket. And the Nick Jonas thing shows that the guy is now totally out in left field.

    FInally, WHAT is the exact excuse they didn't buy back stock over the prior months? Locked out? WHY??

  • longtimefollower by longtimefollower Apr 22, 2016 10:36 AM Flag

    Don't miss it. IMHO?

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • longtimefollower by longtimefollower Apr 20, 2016 11:37 AM Flag

    $56 million in trailing 12 month FCF. But $900 million in debt. And print revenue declines continue to KILL them.

    Question: Does anyone have ANY estimated range of what the non-newspaper digital (i.e. CareerBuilder) are worth? If they could get, say, $500 million for all of this stuff, and monetize another $100 million in real estate for the parent company, wouldn't that put the company in a much different place?

    Are there ANY private market value estimates for CareerBuilder?

  • longtimefollower by longtimefollower Apr 19, 2016 4:32 PM Flag

    FYI, I posted a Seeking Alpha article on RFP this past Friday....the first article I have posted since my article on Claude, just over a year ago. I would welcome any Claude shareholders, who appreciated my analysis here, to join me on the "ride" with RFP....whose train seems to be just leaving the station now.

  • I posted an article last Friday, that is now available for free, to all comers, for the next 30 days or so, before going back behind the paywall. Seeking Alpha deems the article a "must read."

    In the article, I explain, in great detail, why I have set a 3-6 month target of $8-10 on the stock, 6-12 month target of $10-15, and 1-2 year target of $14-18. In a better case scenario, the stock could see as high as $30, in a couple years...assuming the company's venture into tissue is successful.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • longtimefollower longtimefollower Apr 11, 2016 4:19 AM Flag

    Read the latest 10-Q. The answers are there for you.

  • Amazing. I guess to the "Street," it's not a sale until its actually recorded as such. But doesn't this get the "clock ticking," on a "catalyst event," that might very well establish that thing as worth a hell of a lot closer to book value? Is the zoning change granted to the developer, that allows this land to be DEVELOPED, worth nothing??

    I'm amazed it's not at a $10 bid, at least, at this point. Just For one, ALL the debt is paid off now.

    Who ever heard of something with a hard book 3 times the current stock price, and no debt, trading for 1/3 of book? And after the land is sold, they still have these ROCK SOLID notes that pay them like 12%+, for years and years to come.

    I wish the 80% owner would just take it completely private, right now, at, say, $13. I don't need to capture every last dollar.

    Will ANYONE ever figure out this company, other than me?

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    For What it's Worth Tim Stabosz's Input.

    by cschroeder757 Mar 15, 2016 9:20 AM
    longtimefollower longtimefollower Apr 9, 2016 1:22 AM Flag

    Yes, $10+ in 6-12 months...assuming gold stays in the $1200's, at least.

  • Reply to

    IR head and Treasurer Gary Kohn is gone!

    by longtimefollower Apr 7, 2016 2:41 AM
    longtimefollower longtimefollower Apr 9, 2016 12:39 AM Flag

    He was hired as head of IR at Westmoreland Coal, per their press release. Looks like he moved up in the world. Good for him. A class act if there ever was one. He will be missed.

  • longtimefollower by longtimefollower Apr 7, 2016 2:41 AM Flag

    He has a voice mail that says he is "no longer with the company." I am presuming management is taking an additional meat cleaver to costs, to gain the full confidence of the lenders....and Gary is an unfortunate casualty.

  • longtimefollower longtimefollower Mar 31, 2016 11:06 PM Flag

    What exact form are you, or runsfortheroses, thinking a final version of the bond amendment will look like?

  • longtimefollower by longtimefollower Mar 30, 2016 10:31 PM Flag

    With $330 million of cash. Leaving aside covenant requirements, it appears they are burning about $35 million quarterly. But when the Maersk contract is up and running, that should drop to $25 million a quarter. Add in SOME kind of oil price rebound, back into the $50's, by year end, and it is hard to see why the quarterly burn couldn't be down as low as $15-20 million, about a year from now. With all this in mind, it would SEEM that they might have at least THREE YEARS worth of cash.

    Being able to buy something that is currently DEBT FREE (net of cash), for less than 1/10 of book, when that asset value has been FULLY written down, under fresh start accounting, SEEMS like a great opportunity. The runway is established....and the exploration of strategic alternatives is a "kicker." (We don't HAVE to sell out to anyone; we are NOT desperate.)

    It still amazes me to think this thing has an EV of about ZERO, as we speak, give or take....and just prior to bankruptcy, it was well over a billion. Seems like a huge "disconnect," especially since there is a boatload of "runway" now....and the "new" common owners are clearly vested in getting their money back.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Impairment charge a one time

    by surfcitytownhome Mar 30, 2016 5:42 PM
    longtimefollower longtimefollower Mar 30, 2016 10:07 PM Flag

    Soros got his shares as a result of owning debt, in the bankrupt hercules.

  • Reply to

    Still looks like a screaming sell

    by mike_dotcom Mar 28, 2016 11:59 AM
    longtimefollower longtimefollower Mar 30, 2016 10:27 AM Flag

    Mike, you are a scourge on these boards...and unto yourself. Your self-pitying negativity, and dwelling on past losses does not FREE YOU UP to find the "next winner." You are a sad sack. Investing is about learning how to "move on," first and foremost, and looking for where the greener pastures are, rather than gnashing one's teeth in permanent cynicism. The markets are the markets; it is nothing personal. Why don't you just admit to yourself you don't have a mature enough pyschology to manage your own money, and put it all in mutual funds. And free us of your seemingly interminable bitterness....which drags everyone down on these boards...and is a complete embarrassment to you. Have you ever tried GRIEVING, in order to let things go?