I've already got that in the $25 million "catch-all" category. I think your $25 M value for the NY station's residual value alone is too high, since the lease lasts like 10 years, no?
By the way, I'm thinking magazines may be worth more like $35-40 M, rather than $45 million.
Short term phenonmenon. Don't miss the forest for the trees. (Pun not intended...initially, anyway.)
Not that it will be broken up, of course....but it does show the margin of safety.
$221 M license value of stations per the 10-K (excluding the leased NY station)
$ 45 M estimated value of magazines
$ 30 M estimated value of HQ building in Indy
$ 25 M NY station residual value/NextRadio value/Hungary Suit (conservatively estimated)
-$65 M debt (less NY station SPV debt)
-$18 M preferred stock value
$238 M NET VALUE
238/40 M shares = $5.95 net value per share.
I should point out, too, that some of the license values appear conservative, based upon what some of the other big city stations have gone for, in the last year or two (including EMMS's own stations).
Basically, with $14 million or so in annualized free cash flow, and a $66 million market cap, the company basically has a 20%+ FCF yield. Considering how LOW the leverage is now, that seems like a quite attractive valuation to me. My own target for this stock, over the next 2-6 months, is $2.10-2.45. And over the next 1-2 years, I think it could see $3-4.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
I'm surprised, considering the cash per share, and announcement of strategic alternatives, that it isn't trading higher. This is one I've been quietly accumulating in the extreme low $5's, since late last year.
....then $13.30 is the next support. Seeking Alpha article, by "junior analyst," may have knocked it down today.
...and we only get 16,000 shares of volume on Friday...and no msg board postings?
CLEARLY, this stock is underfollowed.
How about $3-4.50, in the next 3-9 months. And, if they are successful with their process reengineering/cost streamlining, $4-7 in the next 1-2 years. Longer term, if they return to more normalized historical sales and margins, the stock could trade back into the double digits. But I probably wouldn't stick around that long, myself.
This is now my largest holding, in the stock market, after my recent block purchases.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
Probably worth a spec at $2.00...since it's not going bankrupt any time soon....even if the business is pretty sick. (Cash flow is still good enough...for now.) But I'm not paying a penny more than the extreme low $2's...
What a yawn. [zzz zzz zzz]
He should have just called himself by his top title, which is Chairman of the Board. The other stuff is superfluous...and self-aggrandizing.
They should FIRE this guy, imho, just for the stupid stuff he said at the beginning of the conf. call. I HATE managers that pass the buck, and make up EXCUSES for why a company fails to perform. Odious.
Royce L. Winsten - Chairman, Chairman of Strategy, Budget & Planning Committee, Member of Audit Committee, Member of Compensation Committee and Member of Nominating & Governance Committee
His comments at the beginning of the conference call are despicable. He makes excuses for the company's poor performance that are simply untenable, and show that his head is stuck in the sand. Saying that the federal government is LYING, and that GDP has not grown for the last 4 years, is simply breathtaking in its denial and delusion. Saying that vehicle miles travelled is a better measure of retail growth is downright SLEAZY. This guy is just over the top. Has the average retailer performed as poorly as Alco has, the last 4 years? The excuse making machine here is just disgusting...and evidence that the entire management structure is sick and dysfunctional.
Any board that would let Winsten begin a conference call with those kind of "passing the buck" comments, is, indeed SICK.
I have no position in the stock, currently, and believe the company should be sold, at any price in the low teens, or higher. There is, and has not been, for years, a valid business model here. Let someone else make a go of it....or LIQUIDATE the company.
That's nonsense. They don't need to do a stock offering. When the stock gets over $8.50 or so, eventually, the convertible debentures will convert out to stock, at that price, which will dramatically improve the balance sheet strength, and yes, provide some moderate dilution as well. But I'll take dilution at $8.50, versus $1.50, any day. And they could always buy in more debentures, if their financial results improve enough, thereby reducing that dilution. Repeat: There will NOT be a stock offering.