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Tuesday Morning Corporation Message Board

longtimefollower 87 posts  |  Last Activity: Apr 25, 2015 4:57 PM Member since: May 12, 2000
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  • longtimefollower longtimefollower Apr 25, 2015 4:57 PM Flag

    Well, what is interesting is if they can pay down another $200 million in debt over the next couple years, and then sell the two internet properties for $250 million. That would leave us with $500 million in debt, which could allow for an equity value back in the $5-10 range, I'm thinking, especially if print should stabilize on the ad revenue decline....which seems increasingly likely, since it is now down to 1/3 of total revenues.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • longtimefollower longtimefollower Apr 25, 2015 4:53 PM Flag

    Because I have no way of knowing it will go as low as $1. In fact, i think it is more likely that $1.50 or $1.25 is the it's time to start entering NOW. It could easily start bouncing next week.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to


    by robbrush Apr 24, 2015 2:52 PM
    longtimefollower longtimefollower Apr 25, 2015 4:50 PM Flag

    A valid point.

  • Reply to


    by robbrush Apr 24, 2015 2:52 PM
    longtimefollower longtimefollower Apr 24, 2015 7:50 PM Flag

    I agree. The buyback is significant....indicating plenty of runway here, despite the secular decline.

  • Does anyone have an analysis of what MNI could get for these?

  • longtimefollower longtimefollower Apr 24, 2015 7:48 PM Flag

    Disagree. This is the time to start entering. I've put 3% of my portfolio in this at a $1.57 average. I'll go to 4.5% at $1.25 and 6% at $1.

    It's oversold....keeping in mind the lack of significant debt maturities until 2022, and fact that they are at 4.5x on leverage, with covenant permitting as high as 6.0.

    This will bounce to $2.50....even if, in a worst case scenario, it goes to zero in 3-5 years.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Q1 Results to be Released After Market Close

    by lookin_2_score Apr 24, 2015 11:26 AM
    longtimefollower longtimefollower Apr 24, 2015 12:27 PM Flag

    Laughable. We already know that Q1 production was blowout. There aren't going to be any surprises here.....except how much money they make....and how much debt they pay down.

  • Reply to


    by g5peeps Apr 24, 2015 11:32 AM
    longtimefollower longtimefollower Apr 24, 2015 12:24 PM Flag


    I'm sorry you sold at the bottom and are bitter. You'll get over it eventually.

  • The resistance to a breakout to higher prices is someone else. I have remained "long and strong"...still holding 5 million shares.

    Loved the Q1 production report...and think a solid Q1 earnings, and then Q2 production in early July, could be a springboard to our next "major run" here. There will be more "believers," and people discovering this stock, over that time period. There will also remain a keen interest among potential suitors, imho.

  • Reply to

    Pump and Dump in motion

    by apprenticetrader Apr 16, 2015 5:47 PM
    longtimefollower longtimefollower Apr 23, 2015 11:48 PM Flag

    Well, he admits he's an "apprenticetrader" your attacking him for being a legend in his own mind is rather asinine.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • Reply to

    New 2015 rights plan to be proposed May 7th

    by statsmike Apr 16, 2015 1:07 PM
    longtimefollower longtimefollower Apr 18, 2015 8:10 AM Flag

    You're not going to see any JV on Amisk at $1200 gold, that's for sure. Let's keep it reasonable here. There's enough reason to be enthusiastic here, without pie in the sky scenarios.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • longtimefollower longtimefollower Apr 13, 2015 1:59 PM Flag

    Well, you make a fair point about growth over a 3-5 year time frame...but the notion that such growth is predictable here, or that it should take Rouleau a total of 5-7 years at the helm to right this ship fully, is part of the "make believe" reality. As it stands now, he has had over 2 years, has TOTALLY remerchandised the company...and is earning about a 6% ROE, having boosted overall eps from about 15 cents annually under Mason, to maybe 35 cents now. With the litany of DRAMATIC things he has done to "remake" this thing, why aren't we seeing more results....and more significantly, why is this FLIM FLAM ARTIST now suddenly talking about "low hanging fruit"? I say, with regard to TUES at least, that Rouleau is a fraud, at this point. But he is concerned about his past reputation, and doesn't want to go out with a DUD as his swan song. So he's "stalling for time." It's obvious.

  • longtimefollower longtimefollower Apr 9, 2015 7:16 PM Flag

    "Much of the Street" is merely the "me too" mutual funds, and people that have "made money on Rouleau at Michael's" that have naively piled in here. "Just a year off" is a total rationalization. For you to ignore that he has had OVER 2 years to fix merchandising, and is basically PUSHING ON A STRING is, frankly, delusional. The improvement, to date, financially, has been NOMINAL, MODEST, and MEAGER.

    Your looking at cost of capital is even more illogical. It's not about cost of capital in holding a stock. It is about OPPORTUNITY COST. Just because you are LAZY to find a better idea, or FEARFUL that after having your remaining money tied up here so long, you'd "hate to" pull out and "miss" something good....that is not a mark of a wise investor, to me. That is someone who is controlled by his emotions. A "negative" emotion.

    $10 is not a bargain. $10 is more than fair valuation. 1 1/2x book, and 18x the 55-65 cents in EPS I expect them to earn NEXT year.

    You should be paying attention to Becker Drapkin. They got out totally. And never got back in. They know that they were LUCKY.

    Sentiment: Sell

  • longtimefollower longtimefollower Apr 9, 2015 2:11 AM Flag

    Well, anything is POSSIBLE. The absurdity of Sterne Agee is that they would BELIEVE, when Rouleau has had over two years, and has BARELY moved the needle where it counts....and that is overall merchandise margin. The company should be back at 75 cents in EPS this fiscal year, minimum, to give Rouleau a BASE credibility. But we will probably be around half that.

    The stock is worth $10. Tops.

    Sentiment: Sell

  • Reply to

    21,000 ounces is insane!

    by longtimefollower Apr 6, 2015 8:21 PM
    longtimefollower longtimefollower Apr 9, 2015 12:13 AM Flag

    Looks attractive. But I'm not in the name currently. A bit thin for me, these days. But great for smaller players.

  • Reply to

    21,000 ounces is insane!

    by longtimefollower Apr 6, 2015 8:21 PM
    longtimefollower longtimefollower Apr 7, 2015 2:41 PM Flag

    I think what is going to make the difference here is q2 production. We've seen volatility the last couple quarters...disappointing q4..spectacular q1. Is q2 going to be 14,000 ounces....or 18,000 ounces? The difference between the two would allow the market to "decide" whether "something just over 65,000" is the number for this year on production....or whether management is "sandbagging," again, like last year, and they are going to beat the guidance on an "outsized" basis. Stay tuned.

  • longtimefollower by longtimefollower Apr 6, 2015 8:21 PM Flag

    This is also a great "head start" on the year, so I personally think that upping to 65,000-70,000 ounces for the year is reasonable.

    The company should be ENORMOUSLY profitable in Q1. That is very likely to get us some additional attention, from those who are still not, quite, paying attention.

    With gold back up to $1215, and the company's reserve grade up to over 7 g/t, I am increasingly comfortable that they will come in somewhere around my 10 cent EPS (Canadian) target for the year. Slap a 10-12 PE on that (probably conservative), and that gets you a $1.00-1.20 CAN stock, or roughly .80-1.00 U.S.

    We may be digesting recent gains now....but I believe this equity has lots more to go. Best of all, it has the "Big Mo." YOU CAN'T ARGUE WITH GARGANTUAN FREE CASH FLOW.....and who ever heard of a gold miner selling at 6x current year earnings??

  • longtimefollower longtimefollower Apr 6, 2015 8:07 PM Flag

    You lost a ton of money, and you're bitter. We GET it. But that has NOTHING to do with where the stock price of ANR goes from here. Silly.

  • longtimefollower longtimefollower Apr 5, 2015 3:06 AM Flag

    Sterne Agee is delusional. How does the "focus on home products" help TUES. If Sterne Agee was paying any attention, they would realize that places like Home Goods have driven a stake through TUES's heart, on maintaining the profitability of its home goods lines. As has BBBY, ad nauseum.

    $2.50 in five years is a nice concept, but you may as well draw a rabbit out of a hat. Agee should be paying more attention to Rouleau's FAILED PROMISES, and "pay no attention to the man behind the curtain" flim flam, in evaluating the likelihood of this thing earning $2.50 in EPS in 5 years. Such "predictions" are PURE speculation, and, in that sense, a TOTAL EMBARRASSMENT to that firm's name, imho. Who would want to BUY this stock on a prediction of what happens in 5 years such as this, when Rouleau has struggled MIGHTILY to get the gross margins going on the merchandising side. What POSSIBLE basis is there to project $2.50 in eps, 5 years out. Laughable.

    Looking for an opportunity to reshort at $18-19.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • longtimefollower longtimefollower Apr 4, 2015 11:28 AM Flag

    I already told you how ANR can further improve its financial position; it has roughly $300 million in addl priority lien debt it can issue to buy back more of the unsecureds.

    I still yawn at #4, because i disagree with your "dr. Doom" view of the global economy. Steel demand will be UP this year, and met coal supplied will be flat to down, bringing that market into balance. The fact that the pricing index for the high end met coal ANR supplies has been in a range from $110 to $115, for the last year now, and that the oil price collapse and collapse in thermal coal prices couldn't cause a further downdraft in mey coal, shows we are likely AT the bottom...for Atlantic Basin met coal anyway.

    Alpha is carrying like 80% net debt to equity now, vs like 200% at ACI, and 600% at WLT. I view ANR as much more reasonably leveraged, comparec to those two....and the LEAST LIKELY to have to undergo a major financial restructuring, where shareholders get their wings clipped.

    I understand your #6 impacts the mood of the market...but that is exactly why i LOVE Alpha. I AM A CONTRARIAN!!

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

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