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Tuesday Morning Corporation Message Board

longtimefollower 81 posts  |  Last Activity: May 18, 2016 11:44 AM Member since: May 12, 2000
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  • Reply to

    Very undervalued; worth over $16

    by shrewd_curmudgeon May 12, 2016 5:05 PM
    longtimefollower longtimefollower May 18, 2016 11:44 AM Flag

    Unfortunately, the Street remains unwilling to give the company credit for the value of its assets, and tends more to look at ongoing EPS as the measure of value here. if we are now Maybe a 40 cent in EPS company, and that is the net contribution to "retained value," the underlying ROE is poor. Furthermore, if they don't show traction with the acquisitions, over the next 12-18 months, then a write down of goodwill and intangibles becomes an even greater risk. In addition, their stated intent to make acquisitions in tools, and that there are "no bargains" out there, means they will be adding debt and goodwill back on. In short, I could never have imagined things would look so "uninspired," after the Q1 earnings release. (I was thinking the release would actually be a catalyst for the stock.) Especially disappointing was the generally negative tone, with Horowitz's reference to the "weak economy" (is the problem the oil and gas market, or "the weak economy" broadly?). To me, this is suggestive that performance will be disappointing, over the next few quarters. Will the Street decide to suddenly accord a company with more "hidden asset value," than it had before, a higher valuation? Was the sale of Nationwide partly a desire to reduce debt, as a "reaction" to a sense that the overall (entire) business was going to have deteriorating financial results, and the company wanted to protect itself from getting into a "pickle" like 2009-2010? To me, the special and regular dividend seem PREMATURE, since we don't know what the company is going to look like, going forward, from an income perspective, with the 1) expected new acquisitions and 2) success of recent acquisitions. I can appreciate that the company is now debt free, and that might justify the dividend policy, but realistically, i never did understand the financial management here. With the stock at $8 and change, shouldn't a buyback (not a dividend) be job number 1?

  • Reply to

    $2.50 target

    by runs4theroses May 12, 2016 9:39 AM
    longtimefollower longtimefollower May 13, 2016 2:10 AM Flag

    Who TF is this "we" you keep referring to? Grandiosity doesn't necessarily add to your credibility.

  • longtimefollower by longtimefollower May 12, 2016 10:42 AM Flag

    Hardly what I expected, for the friends and relatives that still own this stock.

    Message to P&F board: time for a stock buyback, if you believe in your future.

  • Reply to

    Careful boys-the Pump is over, now the dump in mass Sell

    by shhc May 12, 2016 12:26 AM
    longtimefollower longtimefollower May 12, 2016 1:48 AM Flag

    You sad sack.

  • longtimefollower by longtimefollower May 11, 2016 2:26 AM Flag

    Does this "clear the market"?

  • ...as did Agrium and Mosaic. Bob was clear that he thinks the market has BOTTOMED, and this should make the lenders more docile. My guess is they announce a new loan deal in the next several weeks, and the stock is a double at that point. Meanwhile, back to $1.25-1.45 this week or next.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • longtimefollower longtimefollower May 9, 2016 5:00 PM Flag

    It is preserving and securing its future...and maximizing its cash flows. The conversion of east to trio is HUGE...and it is two months early. The burn is manageable, and they still have $50+ million in cash, and net asset value that is a MULTIPLE of the current stock price. It also appears they have a replacement lender for the LOC now.

    The Street can do what it wants. I added 35% to my position today. With glee.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    CHAPTER 11 is coming to town....

    by zigzag111 May 5, 2016 6:34 PM
    longtimefollower longtimefollower May 9, 2016 4:57 PM Flag

    You truly are a sad sack. Your post is vacuous.

  • longtimefollower longtimefollower May 9, 2016 4:54 PM Flag

    Who is "we"?

  • Reply to

    I increased my position 25% today.

    by longtimefollower Apr 25, 2016 4:43 PM
    longtimefollower longtimefollower May 5, 2016 5:15 PM Flag

    I think somebody wanted to get out on the earnings release.

    Stocks don't always go up or down on the "schedule" one expects. But one thing is for sure: the follow on newsprint price increase is better than a sharp stick in the eye.

    Question: If the company is pretty much doing similarly to how it was in the year ago quarter, and the stock was $18 then, and quarterly comparisons should start getting better, comparatively, especially starting in the back half...why is that not being factored into the stock price?

    The announcement of a second newsprint price increase, and closing of the Augusta mill, shows the industry is and will collectively do what it needs to, to maintain high capacity utilization, and make a return to the $580 to $600 per ton price range for newsprint, all the more likely.

  • On April 26, Resolute announced a $15/ton increase effective June1st, to be followed by another $15/ton increase on July 1st. Reported on various websites.

    Keep in mind that the strengthening CAN $ may be part of the spur for this, and all of the increase will not drop to the bottom line, for the company's Canadian mills, when factoring in the foreign exchange.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • longtimefollower by longtimefollower May 4, 2016 11:13 PM Flag

    At an average price of $6 or so. At that rate, they will buy back about 10% of the outstanding this year, and STILL have used up only 60% of the authorization.

    Even better, since Garrison and his affiliates own about 4.6 million shares, we are looking at about 15 million shares in the freely floating share base. And on THAT basis, at the current rate of buyback, they could buy in more like 13% of the "freely floating" shares this year.

    UPshot: If it drops to $6, consider it a gift, and a good place to again add....since, between an expectation of continued support from the buyback, as well as the continued turnaround potential, along with the continued net working capital BARGAIN this stock represents, should provide a huge measure of a MARGIN OF SAFETY.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Love the fact this message board is dead.

    by longtimefollower Mar 19, 2016 1:42 PM
    longtimefollower longtimefollower May 4, 2016 10:50 PM Flag

    Poor baby. They bought back 500k shares or so over the last 4 months. Better than a dividend....especially if they keep buying. And they bought shares SINCE quarter end...which means they are willing to PAY UP. That is BULLISH...because there are still a BOATLOAD of shares to be bought on the remaining buyback.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    KOPN Short Interest - 4/15/16

    by haschultz1 Apr 27, 2016 10:52 PM
    longtimefollower longtimefollower May 4, 2016 7:45 AM Flag

    GOod catch. The addl shorting has only added more pressure on the stock. I note, too, that State Street, in an early 13F filing, sold over 1 million shares in Q1.

    It seems to me there has been little new institutional interest in buying this stock, the last several months....and rumor has it that the T Rowe price fund manager that "liked" this stock left a while back, and the analyst for T Rowe price that followed the company is also gone....which may explain their indiscriminate dumping. Once they are "done," and I would think we wouldn't be too terribly far from that point, I think this stock could bounce back to $2.50-3.00......like almost every other stock that has bounced off its February lows, and is back to where it was late last year. The notion that KOPN should be one of the few exceptions is patently absurd...especially since their cash hoard and new product cycle should be more deterministic of the stock's price, versus the fact that the bottom line numbers were nasty in Q4 2015. (THe "sizzle" could easily return here...especially if they get a contract announcement or two.)

    In the meantime, as we wait, I would hardly be surprised to see this thing bought out at $3+.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • longtimefollower by longtimefollower May 3, 2016 12:39 AM Flag

    Sold for $1.9 B. Revenues of that division are $1.5 B annualized.

    If RFP's pulp division were simply valued at sales, the division would be worth $900 milion, or $9 per share. (Of course, this doesn't account for any company debt paydown.)

    I'm kind of surprised RFP didn't "pop" on the announcement. WY is the #1 market pulp player in North America. And RFP is #3. IP's buying WY's pulp operations consolidates the industry, and, all other things being equal, should marginally enhance pricing power for RFP in market pulp.

  • longtimefollower by longtimefollower May 2, 2016 11:49 PM Flag

    I'll buy if it drops back to $4.00-4.05. Maybe.

  • longtimefollower longtimefollower Apr 29, 2016 5:53 PM Flag

    Does anyone know if there is a reason to think Fan might be PRECLUDED from buying stock? Pending contracts, inside info, etc.? One would think if he liked it at $2.85 last August, he would love it a hell of a lot more at$1.65 now.

  • Reply to

    Such an age-old game. Why on Earth would

    by uptabdowntab Apr 26, 2016 5:41 PM
    longtimefollower longtimefollower Apr 27, 2016 9:39 AM Flag

    I'm not sure that is what is going on. I think they actually believe this is such a "dog" now, such that the rally in the stock price from the $3.80 low, to the $6.80 high, warranted a downgrade. That's silly, because we are not even remotely close to fair value......but the analysts are also looking at a modestly disappointing U.S. Housing starts number....and fearful that means the rally in lumber prices this year will fail.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • longtimefollower by longtimefollower Apr 25, 2016 4:43 PM Flag

    From $5.52-5.70. I see this as a gift. I think $5.50 is likely to be a rock solid bottom....unless the market collapses, of course, in which $5'ish looks really good.

    I now have about 15% of my investible net worth in this one.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Doubling down?

    by keyes_fred Apr 25, 2016 9:46 AM
    longtimefollower longtimefollower Apr 25, 2016 4:41 PM Flag

    RBC and who else?

TUES
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