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Natuzzi SpA Message Board

longtimefollower 38 posts  |  Last Activity: 15 hours ago Member since: May 12, 2000
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  • Reply to

    Well it's clear now

    by baaadapple Jan 30, 2015 10:05 AM
    longtimefollower longtimefollower 15 hours ago Flag

    I could care less about selling too soon. That was eons ago. That is your figment. I am a student of valuation, and that is what i care about. And it has been quite clear that the most important thing, BY FAR, for Rouleau to do, he has FAILED in.....and thAt is boosting overall gross margin dollars from merchandise sales. The merchandise repositioning has only MARGINALLY registered on the needle. You can tout the same store sales gains all you want, but do you really see this company going from maybe 40 cents in EPS this year, to 75 next, to $1.00+ next? I hope you do....but even if you do, the CURRENT stock price is already discounting such a happenstance.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • Reply to

    Delighted by the new board appointment.

    by longtimefollower Jan 30, 2015 2:23 AM
    longtimefollower longtimefollower Jan 31, 2015 2:33 AM Flag

    Originally, discount to book, and "game changer" nature of santoy gap, that was being IGNORED by the Street, because gold prices plunged in 2013, and this thing went from like 60% institutional ownership, to 10%. That selling is now long OVER, and the company has been undergoing ACCUMULATION for the better part of a year now.

    I believe the train is just leaving the station, and the company is on track to earn anywhere from 10-15 cents, Canadian, in EPS, this year. And if the gold price momentum, and Canadian dollar weakness continue, the upside could be even greater.

    The stock is trading at roughly HALF the value of its truest peers, currently, and If this year is as solid as expected, i think the stock could triple in as little as 12 months. Or get bought out sooner.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Well it's clear now

    by baaadapple Jan 30, 2015 10:05 AM
    longtimefollower longtimefollower Jan 30, 2015 11:50 AM Flag

    Will he keep trying? Or will he give up and retire? Isn't the guy like 77 years old now?

    I don't think he is one to give up, but this "low hanging fruit" bs is just that. And if his comtinued actions are lime pushing on a string, i would think they are more likely to sell the company than continue on with this nonsense. But the stock would have to drop to $5, before they could find a buyer, and that would be at a price of lime $8, probably. So it's all downhill from here....ESPECIALLY when all that massive institutional buying in the 2nd half of last year starts coming undone.

  • longtimefollower longtimefollower Jan 30, 2015 11:44 AM Flag

    It is certainly NOT about comparing him to Kathleen Mason anymore, and how much "worse" things would be if she were still on. That is asinine. Who CARES. That would be like Obama still blaming Bush. It is a matter of what has Rouleau really done for this company LATELY....what has he DONE in the last two years. And how UTTERLY SUGGESTIVE his comments of "low hanging fruit" and "loads of opportunities" are to a SLEIGHT OF HAND, that strings an investor base along, while Rouleau continues to stick coal in their stockings.

    The misplaced enthusiasm and exhuberance and "we have a million things to still do here to make gonzo profits" , in these conf calls, have became an UTTER EMBARRASSMENT. They are also clearly suggestive that he is DESPERATE, and doesn't know how to move the needle on the most important thing...getting people to BUY MORE when they are in the store. The lower initial markups strategy, in order to boost overall gross margin dollars has evidenced by the mere $4 million increase in adjusted operating income, in the quarter just reported. NO ONE can deny that. This quarter was supposed to be THE quarter for this coming, with September 1st being the "launch pad" date for a bang up Christmas. Well, it didn't happen, and what is worse is that they can PRETEND in a conference call that this is all "part of the plan," and shift investors' focus to all the "exciting things that are yet to come."

    They are skilled manipulators of public perception....but their comes a point where your self respect is in tatters. They are AT that point....and the fact that they are still in make-believe land shows the level of their hubris.

    The Street is saying 40 cents this fiscal year, tops. That is a mid to high single digit ROE. The stock is worth no more than 2 to 2 1/2 x book, or $10-12.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • longtimefollower by longtimefollower Jan 30, 2015 2:23 AM Flag

    The company continues to do all the right things by its shareholders, and I am very pleased and gratified.

  • This guy has been in charge of the company for roughly 2 years I think I'm going to THROW UP if I hear about "low hanging fruit we work to rebuild the company." There is NOTHING NEW under the sun here, with Mr. Rouleau, but he, in snake oil salesman fashion, manages to keep the SHEEP that own this stock on the edge of their seats, in these delusional conference calls, with all of the wonderful things that are (presumably) ABOUT to happen. It is fatuous. It is manipulative. It is delusional. And it is deceptive,

    The FACT of the matter is the company, after 2 years of Rouleau's brilliance, is likely to earn NO MORE than 50 cents a share this fiscal year...which is less than a 10% ROE. And yet, the company is selling for roughly FORTY TIMES this year's earnings.

    Who ARE these people that keep buying this stock, being suckered into Rouleau's "tommorow is another day, Scarlett," flim flam? And this costant drumbeat of fatuous and smarmy "it only gets better from here" silliness?

    Rouleau: "We're in the very early stage of rebuilding our marketing program."

    WHY? You've been at this thing for 2 years. what possible excuse could you have for being in "the very early stage" of something so important?

    Rouleau: " We now know who are customers are, and where they live. This is important."

    It took you TWO YEARS to get to this point??

    Rouleau: "So many areas of improvement....that just need work."

    After TWO YEARS??

    Target range: $12-14

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • longtimefollower longtimefollower Jan 30, 2015 1:04 AM Flag

    Im talking about the 4th calendar quarter, obviously.

  • Versus the year ago 4th quarter?! That is an UTTER EMBARRASSMENT, and a mark of COMPLETE FAILURE on Rouleau's part.

    Unfortunately, I never reshorted....although A couple of the accounts I oversee did.

    This thing should be trading at $12-14.

    More transactions....but average ticket flat to DOWN. That proves that they are NOT offering the kind of "spectacular finds" that are moving the needle with their customer base.

    The business model is MARGINAL, at best. A 3-5% type ROE outfit, as it stands. And Rouleau isn't going to be able to earn his keep to change that.

    Massively overvalued here. And will probably go down hard....because all the institutional "sheep" that got in here, over the last several months, are now going to all be heading for the exits at once.

    It could trade as low as $10, over the next few months.

    Rouleau has done wonders for operational execution and controls, but as has been said many times here, the most important thing he has FAILED in....and that is buying...and merchandising. And the problem is it isn't as much his fault (since th guy is really quite competent and has a good team). It is the BUSINESS MODEL'S fault. and it is only going to get gradually worse, over time, As TUES comtinues to get squeezed out of the market from everyone from TJ Maxx to Home Goods.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • Reply to

    Took 1/3 off the table today at $21.80

    by smaycs4 Nov 19, 2014 3:36 PM
    longtimefollower longtimefollower Jan 18, 2015 9:11 AM Flag

    Do you really think I live for day to day movements in stock prices? ANR is a potential 10 bagger, with over $5 in gross cash per share, and a $15 book value. Do I really care about short term price swings, on something whose option value is worth dramatically more than the current stock price, and whose true value will be astronomically higher, when met coal prices rebound. Will I really care after AKS is back to $6-7 by the end of January? And now, as I have dug down even deeper into ATNAF, and they have announced their gold production guidance for 2015 (on rising gold prices), that they are going to go from 33,000 ounces produced last year, to probably 60,000 produced this year? Generally speaking, if you KNOW what you own, maintaining a discipline to average down is a strategy that pays off. And many micro cap stocks like I typically own can be QUITE volatile, and quite unpredictably so. Yes, AKS's decline to $4 over the last few weeks is astonishing. But the CEO bought a cool $1 million worth of stock in the open market, several weeks ago, and I daresay that THAT is going to be more operative here, than the vagaries of wild short term price swings in the stock, based upon DELUDED macroeconomic perceptions in the broader marketplace, that FALSELY associate AKS with oil industry exposure, when it has NONE.

    Stocks go up, and stocks go down, especially in the short run. But if you are in the RIGHT ONES, on a fundamental valuation basis, eventually valuation will win out. And I expect to make a killing still in CLGRF, ATNAF, AKS, and ANR, in particular. On the oils, I would prefer a diversified approach, at this point, going for HERO, PGN, and possibly PWE and EXXI. But I also would be inclined to wait until oil prices settle out more, before adding more oil stocks generally, or at least until any individual stock I am looking at buying has shown a bottoming pattern.

  • Highest volume day on Toronto since the 2011 "craze"! As gold enters a potential bull phase, and new money is coming into the sector, they are making a BEE LINE for Claude. The potential here is incredibly exciting.

  • longtimefollower longtimefollower Jan 17, 2015 1:29 AM Flag

    Excellent analysis.

  • longtimefollower longtimefollower Jan 16, 2015 1:30 AM Flag

    I agree. This thing should trade up to 10-12 cents, on this announcement, AND, if they perform, I don't see why it couldn't trade up to 20-25 cents, within 12 months.

    this thing seems MASSIVELY oversold still, especially with the strengthened balance sheet, guidance for record production in 2015, and with gold possibly transforming into a bull market.

    Considering this stock was well over $1 a few years ago, the potential here is enormous, especially, again, if they achieve record production this year.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Took 1/3 off the table today at $21.80

    by smaycs4 Nov 19, 2014 3:36 PM
    longtimefollower longtimefollower Jan 6, 2015 1:09 AM Flag

    Some of My favorite long ideas are ANR, ACI, AKS, MT, HERO, PGN, RVM, TC, ATNAF, PFIN, and HTCH. I also like TUES as a short, and am looking to reshort before the earnings release.

  • longtimefollower by longtimefollower Dec 22, 2014 12:21 AM Flag

    I like some of the leadership moves they've been making.

  • longtimefollower by longtimefollower Dec 5, 2014 1:53 AM Flag

    The 32.5 cent high of the day was a new 52 week high.

    FINALLY....Claude is getting some of the attention it deserves.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • ....that they continue to maintain an insular management and board structure, and did not have the right people to implement the lean production methodology.

  • longtimefollower by longtimefollower Dec 2, 2014 10:58 PM Flag

    ....the company still lost a rather alarming 8% of net sales, for the quarter, and over 10% for the 9 months to date. Wasn't ReVive, and the cost cutting to date, supposed to do more for overall results by now? This kind of loss rate is indicative of a very unhealthy business.

    This company, by my guess, probably needs at least a 25% increase in sales, just to get to break even.

    The stock is cheap on book value, and other measures, but the balance sheet just keeps getting weaker and weaker, with the company now being in a position of having no excess cash, net of debt, which is a tragic eviseration of value over the years. Also, when compared to the rate of loss a few years ago (which was much lower), the company still has its work cut out for itself, and the disconnect between management's misplaced optimism in the conference calls, and the underlying sickness of the business, adds to a feeling of "unreality" here which is extremely disquieting.

    My position is down to less than 1% of my overall portfolio. This was my largest holding, as recently as earlier this year, but the continued losses, and the increase in them, as a percent of sales, adds to long term risk.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Seems like a big deal to me. Gives them the liquidity they need, and seems to minimize the chances for any further dilutive share issuances.

    I've been buying, and now own over 7 million shares, or roughly 3.5% of the company.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Street estimate of 38 cents appears fairly in line with the company's implied "guidance." But this does not invalidate my point that to assume the company can and will beat those estimates, merely because of how "brilliant" Rouleau is, is naive, at best.

  • Reply to

    High estimate for year ending Jan 2016=92 cents

    by smaycs4 Nov 21, 2014 10:11 PM
    longtimefollower longtimefollower Nov 29, 2014 1:18 AM Flag

    You are very foolish. The Street estimates are NOT the company's estimates. The company's IMPLIED estimate, based upon guidance for a fiscal q4 break even, suggests they will earn NO MORE THAN 50 cents in EPS for the year. Therefore, the Street is WAY TOO HIGH in its estimates. And the estimates are NOT "built to be beat." On the contrary.

    Your "we will assume Rouleau will outperform" nonsense is clearly DRINKING THE KOOL AID, and you deserve to have your hat handed to you, as i fully expect you will you will. Your trusting in this "low hanging fruit" bs that Rouleau is spouting proves you have been taken in. I repeat that there is ABSOLUTELY NO CREDIBILITY for a manager who, after nearly 2 years on the job, has "suddenly discovered" all of this "low hanging fruit." I find it mighty convenient that he has "discovered" this particularly shylock form of flim flam, RIGHT at the point where they are about to indicate that the merchandise margin turnaround is FAILING, and that he is setting you SHEEP up to trick you into letting him "buy more time" for the much vaunted, but largely STILLBORN, "turnaround" of Tuesday Morning Corporation.

    You are clearly delusional in your dismissing of the lower IMU's, and how that has FAILED to generate the kinds of sales gains they need to justify anything more than a high single digit stock price.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

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