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Natuzzi SpA Message Board

longtimefollower 48 posts  |  Last Activity: Sep 11, 2014 5:54 PM Member since: May 12, 2000
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  • ....and that i have been comtinually buying, in the extreme low $2's, up through the day before the earnings release. (After having bought at up to $2.90+, just before the LAST earnings release, and getting hosed, in the short term, after the last release.)

    With Friday's close, this is now the second largest holding in my portfolio.

    I want to thank uptab for his very salient points about this company, as posted on this board. More recently, i especially think his point that if this were viewed as a developmental stage OIS (and possibly other new product line) company, the market cap would likely be SIGNIFICANTLY higher than current. Very perspicacious. Very compelling.

    I also like the Craig Hallum upgrade.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • longtimefollower longtimefollower Aug 28, 2014 1:26 AM Flag

    Actually, you're totally wrong. And totally misguided. And even delusional.

    I could CARE LESS that the stock is up. I could care less when a market is irrational....as it only allows me to add to a position.

    This game isn't over yet. Also, ignore manipulative claptrap, in press releases and conference calls, AT YOUR PERIL. Sophisticated investors now how to interpret and filter information. You're a solid value investor...but you are also quite dogmatic and rigid.

    "Playing the house's money" is a mantra for suckers, and weak thinkers. If there is something better to own than TUES, you should be in it. Holding a small position in TUES for a potential "outsized gain," because it "feels good" to you, is the height of stupidity, and hubris, and grandiosity.

    Nobody CARES any more that you bought it at 51 cents 5 1/2. I did too, but that is PAST, and it was long before Rouleau.

    You are an undisciplined thinker in many many ways. Your "cheapness" has made you sucessful as a value investor. But your inane desire for these "20 baggers" clouds your thinking.

    You are DUMB to own this stock, when there are CLEARLY better investments. DUMB. And rigid. And inflexible.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • Reply to

    Rouleau is doing no better than Mason!

    by longtimefollower Jun 18, 2014 3:23 AM
    longtimefollower longtimefollower Jun 18, 2014 3:28 AM Flag

    The $5.4 million is the adjusted operating loss, under the cult figure, Rouleau, in the 1st calendar quarter. The $6.1 and $5.2 million figures are the comparable Q1 loss figures under Mason, in 2012 and 2011, respectively.

    What exactly, I DEMAND TO KNOW, has Rouleau done to improve this business, over the Mason Era? The stock is up roughly FOUR TIMES OVER now! For no reason.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • longtimefollower by longtimefollower Jun 18, 2014 3:23 AM Flag

    This was typed on May 12th, but it wouldn't "take" on Yahoo....and I never tried reposting it until now:

    5.4 M adjusted operating loss.

    Mason had $6.1, in the same 2012 quarter, and $5.2 operating loss, in 2011.

    There has been NO MATERIAL IMPROVEMENT in the company's fortunes under Rouleau. This is especially true on the merchandising front, as the company has added efficiencies in distribution and freight, and reduced SG&A. Therefore, on an absolute gross margin (merchandising) basis, Rouleau has ABJECTLY FAILED.

    Yet, perversely, the stock has TRIPLED, when Rouleau has NOTHING to show for himself.

    This guy is a fraud...at least as far as his performance at TUES goes.

    I fully expect Becker Drapkin to be dumping more shares in here. They'd be fools not to.

    I plan on shorting.

  • longtimefollower by longtimefollower Jun 20, 2014 1:15 PM Flag

    the government basically decided to "punish" an insolent and defiant management, and is shutting the company down. There won't be any debtor in possession financing. shareholders are paying the price for a management that was engaging in fraudulent representations that pushed the government over the edge.

    They are deciding to make an example of corinthian, to show everyone else they better shape up.

    This, no doubt, strikes the terror of Jesus in the entire industry....especially the ESI's, CECO's, and education managements of the world.

    I am happy to get out and salvage 30 cents, as i believe this will end up worthless in fairly short order.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • Reply to

    Massimino must have a tin ear.

    by longtimefollower Jun 22, 2014 4:06 PM
    longtimefollower longtimefollower Jun 23, 2014 3:06 AM Flag

    Nonsense. I sold 2.6 million shares over two days. Salvaging the capital will almost certainly be the smart move. And the courageous one.

    The government made a decision. They are not going to go back on it. They are going to make an example of corinthian....and "punish" and humiliate Massimino and Co. For defying them, and making a mockery out of their authority.

  • ....in combined gross margin and SG&A (with 50 basis points coming from gross margins, and 100 basis points coming from SG&A), and the company increases sales from $865 million in 2014 to, say $950 Million in 2015, that would seem to suggest that overall operating profit is only expected to increase by $14 million pretax, or maybe $9 million, after tax. On a company that roughly broke even, on an after tax basis, in 2014, we are talking about an IMPLICIT MANAGEMENT PROJECTION of an EPS level somewhere around 20 cents a share for 2015, based upon the currently outstanding share base.

    Even if they DOUBLE that guidance (which they won't), that would only put the stock at no more than 40-50 cents in bottom line, fully taxed earnings, in 2015.

    I would like someone to point out what exactly, in managment's guidance in the conference call, I am missing, or how i am misrepresenting it.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • Not by a longshot.

    DODO BIRDS.

  • "...we believe that we are confident that we have a solid foundation in place," Mr. Rouleau concluded.

    If that isn't melee mouthed, i don't know what is. Truly confidenteople CLAIM their confidence as an emotion. They don't state that they "believe" they are confident!

    Rouleau is clearly hedging his bets, and has no idea whatsoever whether the necessariy sales volume, and margins, are going to come througn, to give credence to all of the "rabid remerchandising" they have been doing the last few years.....or if it is really just some kind of pointless shell game....sound and fury signifying nothing. The jury is STILL OUT. And yet, the stock is trading as if Rouleau is the 2nd coming of Christ.

    READ what Rouleau says. He HEDGES something horrible in his public comments. And that is because he has NO IDEA whether the core of his efforts here, the remerchandising of TUES, is actually WORKING.

    Sentiment: Sell

  • Reply to

    The high estimate for next year is now 87 cents

    by smaycs4 Aug 31, 2014 2:28 AM
    longtimefollower longtimefollower Sep 5, 2014 1:13 AM Flag

    1) I am not "seeking something to bet on." That's asinine.

    2) " i have the wind at my back in that the long term trend of the markets is up." Response: You'd be better off buying an index fund. TUES is in the top 20% universe of overpriced retail stocks.

    Rouleau may have been great at michael's, but it seems to me, when it comes to tues, he's a snake oil salesman....or at least with regard to their merchandising...which has been modestly successful, at best....even if the concept of "wider and less deep" absolutely makes a lot of sense.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • Reply to

    Rouleau's history--a galaxy far, far away

    by keyes_fred Sep 3, 2014 8:24 PM
    longtimefollower longtimefollower Sep 7, 2014 1:55 PM Flag

    I tend to agree with fabulous poodle. I would not dismiss Rouleau on the basis you do. Merchandising is not necessarily about all the things you are talking about. He's got a good team, that knows how to "stay with the times." The problem I have with the situation isn't that Rouleau is a "dinosaur," as you're arguing. It's that TUES has a permanently compromised business model...and he merchandising efforts, over the last 18 months, have LARGELY FAILED. And what I resent is the "bombast" and the chicanery around this notion of "we're laying all this groundwork, and just wait until September 1st." That is a load of BUNK....and things should have been ratably improving, over the ENTIRE tenure of Rouleau....but he has BARELY moved the needle. What's even scarier is that some of the gross margin improvement has come from distibution center efficiencies, and other things, NOT DIRECTLY RELATED to having the "right merchadise."

    I believe the "model" is permanently compromised, and will never earn more than a single digit ROE. And it will only get worse, over time. The concept of a "bare bones" upper end closeout retailer is passe. The "sales event" aspect of the business is also GONE. This is like the KMart blue light special. Everyone knows they can get similar merchandise at just as good or better prices at a number of other retailers. That was not exactly the case 20 years ago.

    It's not that Rouleau is a dinosaur....it's that TUES is! My problem with Rouleau is that he is a snake oil salesman. He KNOWS he's failing....but he's been engaging in sleight of hand, and putting on a happy face. Because he has to. Prediction: Rouleau will be fired in 3-6 months, when Xmas doesn't validated his vaunted and self congratulatory "multi-point tactical and strategic plan." He acts like he's totally in control of this thing.....but, at bottom, when it comes to RESULTS, he's just spinning his wheels. But his "fans" love the kool aid.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • longtimefollower longtimefollower Sep 3, 2014 3:13 AM Flag

    You stupidly hold something that is up 35x, simply because you are enamored of the concept of being 35x. You could care less about the further turnaround potential, or the fundamental value, relative to other opportunities, because this is no longer an "investment" for you. It's a lottery ticket that has "paid off," that you want to keep holding onto, because it keeps reminding you how "smart" you are. I prefer to be more disciplined.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • ....and have anyone want to "back" you any more.

    The "highest value" for stakeholders (i.e. The lenders) is in a liquidation. PERIOD.

    I expect vendors to be spooked by this report.

    There IS NO BUSINESS MODEL HERE ANYMORE!

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • longtimefollower by longtimefollower Jun 22, 2014 4:06 PM Flag

    The very fact that it could come to this testifies to the height of his arrogance and stupidity and grandiosity. Why didn't he voluntarily leave the company months ago, in order to save it? Why didn't this stupid 11 member board know that It was getting to the final straw with ED.

    Will the government, in the end, be able to prove fraud, and will Jack be criminally indicted?? One would feel better if such was the case. Otherwise, That he could get away with "mere" stupidity and arrogance would leave a sorry taste in one's mouth.

    The fact of the matter is that he, and this stupid board, should have known the company was WAY out on a limb with ED.

    Jack's statement referring to an "orderly transition of our operations" shows it is, indeed, over, and that ED has effectively decided to force COCO to close. Everything from this point onward will be on ITS terms.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • Reply to

    I have enjoyed keeping a low profile

    by retailexecutive Jul 2, 2014 11:38 AM
    longtimefollower longtimefollower Jul 13, 2014 3:10 PM Flag

    Anyone calling this a "strong buy" is out to lunch. A lot of your claims are TRUE...except the fact that Rouleau has failed in the most important area, and that is merchandising. NOTHING else really matters...or it only matters about 20%, anyway. UNLESS the new executive hires FIX the merchandising.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • longtimefollower by longtimefollower Jul 8, 2014 9:16 PM Flag

    This is now my largest coal holding. I prefer it to ACI, now.

    This is a spectacular intermediate to long term buy, imho. I agree with the Seeking Alpha article.

    Buy it for the discount to book, and turnaround potential. Sell it for break even or better, a year or more from now, if things don't turn around.

    This one is due for a major dead cat bounce....regardless of the near to intermediate term fundamentals. They have liquidity, so bankruptcy is NOT an issue for a good long while.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • ...tthe fact that he effectively destroyed Corinthian Colleges, through the sin of pride and hubris, and put them into (pending) bankruptcy.

    That an executive would not sense, and would not FEEL, that "the end was near," and that he was "twisting in the wind," is the ultimate in incompetence and arrogance. Jack basically sent the message to the government that "we don't have to do anything you want"...and the government said, al contrair, Mr. Massimino.

    Jack Massimino gets the ultimate booby prize....for reckless incompetence...and willfull blindness...and asinine contemptuous defiance.

  • Reply to

    ugly performance

    by demarkdom Aug 21, 2014 4:14 PM
    longtimefollower longtimefollower Aug 21, 2014 5:36 PM Flag

    I'm short, but I wouldn't call it "ugly." I would definitely call it unimpressive, and uninspiring, though.

  • Reply to

    The high estimate for next year is now 87 cents

    by smaycs4 Aug 31, 2014 2:28 AM
    longtimefollower longtimefollower Sep 3, 2014 8:04 PM Flag

    And what EXACTLY is it, Mr. Smaycs, that i "can't see right ahead of me." Something you are seeing, or have high confidence in? Relative to an $18 stock price??

    You are GAMBLING, plain and simple. I remember our conversations from years back, and you always became WED to your big winners, because the good feelings towards them were kind of an "addiction" for you, that you don't want to let go of. But that is NOT investing. And that is NOT about maximizing returns.

  • longtimefollower longtimefollower Aug 26, 2014 12:53 AM Flag

    But that's not what we're talking about. Nor is it relevant. What we are talking about is the fundamentals, and the guidance, and rouleau's "just wait until September 1st" b.s.....and his utterly shameless "we believe we are confident" claptrap.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

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