5 years is a long time. There is better risk/reward elsewhere. By far. Besides, YOU ARE WRONG. The market cap will not double. It will drop. Rouleau's credibility is in a shambles. He, again, has been "all over" this company, and is an excellent "nuts and bolts" manager, obviously.....BUT he has barely been able to move the needle on merchandise margins, and THAT is where the rubber meets the road here. Pretending there are "all kinds of opportunities" creates such a MASSIVE disconnect from the underlying reality, which is that he has had TWO YEARS here to fix the merchandising, such that it is SELF EVIDENT that HE KNOWS he is up a creek without the proper means of propulsion. Right now, he is engaging in a DISINGENUOUS SHELL GAME with the TUES shareholder base. The only saving grace is that it's possible he has HIMSELF convinced, messiah-style, that he can "still do it." But do WHAT at this point? "Upgrade" the cash registers AGAIN??
You can talk about what they "should" be delivering. But pretending like someone else can readily deliver that with a snap of the fingers is highly questionable. And no one is going to "take it private," with the stock at $18.
The stock is significantly overpriced, based upon the return on equity, and TRAJECTORY of only modest improvement Rouleau has achieved, in total merchandise gross margin dollars, after being admittedly "all over this company," for the last 2 years. It gets MUCH harder from here for him, to move the needle. And that is why he is PRETENDING in the press releases like there is all of this "low hanging fruit." Because he needs to STALL FOR TIME. In this sense, despite otherwise being a competent manager, he is a MANIPULATIVE FRAUD. Because he figures, what else does he have to lose, if he can FIGURE OUT a way to improve overall profitability, in the meaning....even if he is largely CLUELESS, at this point. Since if he pretends otherwise, the SHEEP institutions that bought this stock are likely to believe him, possibly, for a good while longer. And yet, what truly competent manager would have "boatloads" of "low hanging fruit," two years after he took the helm. This is why I say Rouleau is disingenuous, fatuous, manipulative, and a flim flam artist. He KNOWS he's got a business model problem. But he also knows that he has generated enough (modest) improvement, that he can buy more time with the shareholder base, and "go for broke," over the next year....or "figure something out."
The truth is there may be NOTHING to figure out....if the business model is permanently unfixable. It's not Radio Shack. But it's kind of like the old Alco Stores....SQUEEZED between an ever increasing retinue of competitors....while the old strength of the "treasure hunt," and "sales events," that used to turn on a core customer base, but now just largely yawns and could care less at "the TUES differentiation."
Sentiment: Strong Sell
Now have this back up to a full 10% of my total portfolio.
I expect this to be a huge winner over the next 6-18 months. My target is $10-15.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
Some of My favorite long ideas are ANR, ACI, AKS, MT, HERO, PGN, RVM, TC, ATNAF, PFIN, and HTCH. I also like TUES as a short, and am looking to reshort before the earnings release.
This guy has been in charge of the company for roughly 2 years now....so I think I'm going to THROW UP if I hear about "low hanging fruit opportunities....as we work to rebuild the company." There is NOTHING NEW under the sun here, with Mr. Rouleau, but he, in snake oil salesman fashion, manages to keep the SHEEP that own this stock on the edge of their seats, in these delusional conference calls, with all of the wonderful things that are (presumably) ABOUT to happen. It is fatuous. It is manipulative. It is delusional. And it is deceptive,
The FACT of the matter is the company, after 2 years of Rouleau's brilliance, is likely to earn NO MORE than 50 cents a share this fiscal year...which is less than a 10% ROE. And yet, the company is selling for roughly FORTY TIMES this year's earnings.
Who ARE these people that keep buying this stock, being suckered into Rouleau's "tommorow is another day, Scarlett," flim flam? And this costant drumbeat of fatuous and smarmy "it only gets better from here" silliness?
Rouleau: "We're in the very early stage of rebuilding our marketing program."
WHY? You've been at this thing for 2 years. what possible excuse could you have for being in "the very early stage" of something so important?
Rouleau: " We now know who are customers are, and where they live. This is important."
It took you TWO YEARS to get to this point??
Rouleau: "So many areas of improvement....that just need work."
After TWO YEARS??
Target range: $12-14
Sentiment: Strong Sell
....for the last SEVEN years in a row! Is Rouleau likely to turn that around? No. More likely, the company will lose something on the order of 5 cents a share, in the back half, giving it an EPS for the year around 35 cents. Does such a number, which represents roughly a 6% return on equity, even if the trajectory is for further improvement, going forward, justify a PE multiple of 50 times? Even if the company goes from 35 cents in fiscal 2015, to 75 cents in fiscal 2016, a rather dubious proposition, and probably the best case scenario, would that justify a multiple of more than 20-25x, which puts the stock ALREADY TODAY where it should be trading, 18 months from now? Absolutely not.
The right price for the stock is in the $12-14 range, TOPS. Rouleau snake oil notwithstanding. You simply CAN'T price virtually the ENTIRE ANTICIPATED TURNAROUND into the stock right now. And it is pretty much priced in, because you won't see this company earning more than $1.00-1.25 at its peak, and that is probably, at that point, a company worth 15x earnings, or no more than the current stock price. And that is probably 2-3 years out....IF they can even accomplish that.
It is time for the institutions that loaded up here to GET OUT of this pig. But I will be ESPECIALLY interested in seeing if insiders are buying, or selling, over the coming days.
Sentiment: Strong Sell
Will he keep trying? Or will he give up and retire? Isn't the guy like 77 years old now?
I don't think he is one to give up, but this "low hanging fruit" bs is just that. And if his comtinued actions are lime pushing on a string, i would think they are more likely to sell the company than continue on with this nonsense. But the stock would have to drop to $5, before they could find a buyer, and that would be at a price of lime $8, probably. So it's all downhill from here....ESPECIALLY when all that massive institutional buying in the 2nd half of last year starts coming undone.
They also set a one year price target of $1 Canadian, according to various web sources, and set an earnings eatimate of 11 cents Canadian for this year....which puts us, even after today's rally...at a mere 4x earnings.
Only 600k volume on Canada today. That is peanuts. Modest corrective "backing and filling" action is healthy. If it goes back to 40-41 cents U.S., I'm buying.
Do you really think I live for day to day movements in stock prices? ANR is a potential 10 bagger, with over $5 in gross cash per share, and a $15 book value. Do I really care about short term price swings, on something whose option value is worth dramatically more than the current stock price, and whose true value will be astronomically higher, when met coal prices rebound. Will I really care after AKS is back to $6-7 by the end of January? And now, as I have dug down even deeper into ATNAF, and they have announced their gold production guidance for 2015 (on rising gold prices), that they are going to go from 33,000 ounces produced last year, to probably 60,000 produced this year? Generally speaking, if you KNOW what you own, maintaining a discipline to average down is a strategy that pays off. And many micro cap stocks like I typically own can be QUITE volatile, and quite unpredictably so. Yes, AKS's decline to $4 over the last few weeks is astonishing. But the CEO bought a cool $1 million worth of stock in the open market, several weeks ago, and I daresay that THAT is going to be more operative here, than the vagaries of wild short term price swings in the stock, based upon DELUDED macroeconomic perceptions in the broader marketplace, that FALSELY associate AKS with oil industry exposure, when it has NONE.
Stocks go up, and stocks go down, especially in the short run. But if you are in the RIGHT ONES, on a fundamental valuation basis, eventually valuation will win out. And I expect to make a killing still in CLGRF, ATNAF, AKS, and ANR, in particular. On the oils, I would prefer a diversified approach, at this point, going for HERO, PGN, and possibly PWE and EXXI. But I also would be inclined to wait until oil prices settle out more, before adding more oil stocks generally, or at least until any individual stock I am looking at buying has shown a bottoming pattern.
I agree. This thing should trade up to 10-12 cents, on this announcement, AND, if they perform, I don't see why it couldn't trade up to 20-25 cents, within 12 months.
this thing seems MASSIVELY oversold still, especially with the strengthened balance sheet, guidance for record production in 2015, and with gold possibly transforming into a bull market.
Considering this stock was well over $1 a few years ago, the potential here is enormous, especially, again, if they achieve record production this year.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
Versus the year ago 4th quarter?! That is an UTTER EMBARRASSMENT, and a mark of COMPLETE FAILURE on Rouleau's part.
Unfortunately, I never reshorted....although A couple of the accounts I oversee did.
This thing should be trading at $12-14.
More transactions....but average ticket flat to DOWN. That proves that they are NOT offering the kind of "spectacular finds" that are moving the needle with their customer base.
The business model is MARGINAL, at best. A 3-5% type ROE outfit, as it stands. And Rouleau isn't going to be able to earn his keep to change that.
Massively overvalued here. And will probably go down hard....because all the institutional "sheep" that got in here, over the last several months, are now going to all be heading for the exits at once.
It could trade as low as $10, over the next few months.
Rouleau has done wonders for operational execution and controls, but as has been said many times here, the most important thing he has FAILED in....and that is buying...and merchandising. And the problem is it isn't as much his fault (since th guy is really quite competent and has a good team). It is the BUSINESS MODEL'S fault. and it is only going to get gradually worse, over time, As TUES comtinues to get squeezed out of the market from everyone from TJ Maxx to Home Goods.
Sentiment: Strong Sell
I had ongoing communications with members of management. I never recall receiving a formal written response to the 13D letter. They have pretty much turned Inspectra into a no cost "backwater" now, which I felt was responsive to the situation. The tragedy is that they were so desperate to create an alternative to suspension assemblies, that they kept throwing good money after bad, as long as they did, on that one.
But it's a whole new ballgame now! And we focus on the exciting future, not the past!
The dilution was unfortunate...and irritating, to say the least. But that is a "sunk cost"....and you are HORRIBLY NAIVE, in my opinion, for not have a position in this stock. I have no idea what you would possibly be waiting for....since OIS announcements could come very well come any where from a few weeks to a few months from now...but in any case, no later than the back half of this year. If the stock is $10-15 in anywhere from 6-18 months, and you are fiddling around here wringing your hands, right now, can't you see how foolish that is? You are missing the forest for the trees!!
Sentiment: Strong Buy
Highest volume day on Toronto since the 2011 "craze"! As gold enters a potential bull phase, and new money is coming into the sector, they are making a BEE LINE for Claude. The potential here is incredibly exciting.
No one said it was "going under."
These are "loyalty purchases," which Rouleau "expects" from his top executives, at a time like this. Because it is CRITICAL to buying them more time on the Street. So it's "chump change" in that context.....as it allows the game of musical chairs to keep going on. Rouleau hasn't "failed," as long as the stock stays strong.
That having been said, I expect a further rally on these announcements. Fortunately, I only shorted 1000 shares....and look forward on making that 10,000 or more, if it goes back up to the low $20's.