It's not that they've "done their work." It's that they know that Rouleau if FAILING to improve margins...and the current stock price is not justified!
Check the Form 4's.
I don't know whether to reshort now, or wait for higher prices. (Rallying market could take this POS higher, maybe?)
You're living in a fantasy. The fundamentals will, sooner than that, carry the day. And they are poor.
E-mail sent to Scheriff and Franklin....
I am up to x.x% ownership, roughly.
I am disturbed, and sickened, by your fiduciarily corrupt behavior, on the compensation committee.
[link to this Yahoo post]
You were clearly "posturing," and MANIPULATING ME, when you "sought my guidance," a couple years ago, on Horowitz's pay package.
You are in Horowitz's back pocket, and have no self-respect. Either that, or you are incompetent boobies. Neither one is edifying.
Au contrair, my fine feathered friend. Based on gross margins, the "bad weather" HAS CONTINUED. And it's not merely bad weather; it is FAILED merchandising. Yes, he deserves more time, but so far, we have a problem. And there is every evidence, AT THIS POINT, that that problem is likely to continue.
I don't give a you-know-what about what the "market seems to think." If you want to, then suit yourself...but i prefer independent thinking.
There is no grudge. I don't "resent" stocks going up more than they should have, just because the Street got way too frothy. In fact, i am DELIGHTED by the opportunity to short, and take advantage of the mispricing.
You can call it "gambling" all you want, but it's not worth 3x book, and .75x sales, when the company is BARELY profitable. Turnaround potential is only worth so much....and if it's already fully, or nearly fully, priced in, such an "investent" is for suckers, kool aid drinkers, and true believers.
The biz model isn't what it used to be. This is a $1-1.50 in future EPS company, AT BEST. And a $20-25 stock, in the VERY BEST case scenario....and not a very likely one. More likely is that they continue to middle through, at 25-75 cents in EPS.
Adjusted Operating income was down nearly 20%, versus the year ago quarter.
There is NO freaking "turnaround" here.....whatsoever!
They're not really moving the sales needle at all...and the overall margins are LOWER.
This should be an $8 stock.
Sentiment: Strong Sell
You are WRONG. They need more traffic, and a larger size basket, to justify and "pay for" the lower initial markups. And they are NOT getting that. (They are getting more traffic...but a SMALLER basket. Which means the customer is NOT falling all over himself to buy more of this, allegedly bargain priced #$%$. Which is a serious problem.)
I repeat: You are living in fantasyland. And no, I don't "want" them to fail. I just EXPECT them to.
I am getting close to pulling the trigger on reshorting this pos.
Sentiment: Strong Sell
Calling this an "outstanding" quarter destroys any credibility you might have. No objective analysis could possibiy call it that. What are you basing such a claim on? Improved inventory turns? Or still lovin' them new cash registers, i'm guessing?
Why don't you address the fact that adjusted operating income was down nearly 20% in the quarter. Naw. You'd rather have us pay no attention to the man behind that curtain.
The fact of the matter is Rouleau has had 11 months!......and the Xmas quarter should have shown more dramatic increases in sales and margins, to EVIDENCE that they are "on their way" to earning $1+ in EPS again. We see nothing of the sort here. WORSE, Rouleau MISCALCULATED, and jacked up the store level SG&A, to improve the "store experience," and has NOTHING to show for it.
We got more visits...but a LOWER average ticket. Why is that not a problem? People are liking coming around more, because the store are cleaner and more organized.....but they are NOT buying more stuff. If they haven't, by now, when will they.
I look forward to reshorting this POS at $15-16.
This thing is the walking dead. I am now long the March $2.50 puts, and expect this thing to see $1.50, or less, by expiration.
This thing is as sick as Borders was, or JCP is. Magnacca has done more harm than good, with his sku reduction strategy. There is no way it can be fixed now. The obsessing on the super bowl commercial in the conference call shows the level of desperation.
They will be bankrupt by January 1, and shareholders' equity will be negative, by the end of the June quarter.
I'm not even sure the banks will approve all of the store closings. They could call in the loan.
Sentiment: Strong Sell
Trusting what a large investor must "supposedly know" is pure speculation, pure recklessness, and pure pointlessness. I do my own analysis of fundamental value; and so should you. Your mid $30's target is based on an "outsized" best case scenario, that has nothing to do with the fundamentals as they exist now. You should be paying more attention to Becker Drapkin's actions, and obsess about what THEY "must know," compared to OUTSIDER Primecap. You can't have it both ways.
Your position is one of wishful thinking. There is more risk than reward here. Period. There is no justification in being long.
They saw the move up to $3.80-3.85 as an opportunity.
I'd love to see a retracement to $3....but i doubt it will get that low.
$3.35-3.45 seems like the right entry point now.
You have the grandiosity, and delusional self reverence that is characteristic of someone who is a drunk.
Every company is going bankrupt....someday. Or liquidating. It's in the nature of these things. What does that have to do with life on this earth, right now?
Arch has liquidity out the wazoo, and talk of bankruptcy reveals you as the rank amateur, and charlatan, that you are.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
These guys are incompetent boobs. Best hope is the stock drops to $6, on a bad earnings report...and we get a 2nd chance for a sale of the company at maybe $12. Or maybe the sleazy Chinese outfit comes back in with a bid?
I think it's going lower before it has a chance of going higher. You can bet that these numskulls took there eye TOTALLY off the operations, while they were trying to sell the company.