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Natuzzi SpA Message Board

longtimefollower 53 posts  |  Last Activity: 7 hours ago Member since: May 12, 2000
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  • longtimefollower by longtimefollower Dec 22, 2014 12:21 AM Flag

    I like some of the leadership moves they've been making.

  • Reply to

    Took 1/3 off the table today at $21.80

    by smaycs4 Nov 19, 2014 3:36 PM
    longtimefollower longtimefollower Jan 6, 2015 1:09 AM Flag

    Some of My favorite long ideas are ANR, ACI, AKS, MT, HERO, PGN, RVM, TC, ATNAF, PFIN, and HTCH. I also like TUES as a short, and am looking to reshort before the earnings release.

  • longtimefollower longtimefollower Jan 16, 2015 1:30 AM Flag

    I agree. This thing should trade up to 10-12 cents, on this announcement, AND, if they perform, I don't see why it couldn't trade up to 20-25 cents, within 12 months.

    this thing seems MASSIVELY oversold still, especially with the strengthened balance sheet, guidance for record production in 2015, and with gold possibly transforming into a bull market.

    Considering this stock was well over $1 a few years ago, the potential here is enormous, especially, again, if they achieve record production this year.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • longtimefollower longtimefollower Jan 17, 2015 1:29 AM Flag

    Excellent analysis.

  • Highest volume day on Toronto since the 2011 "craze"! As gold enters a potential bull phase, and new money is coming into the sector, they are making a BEE LINE for Claude. The potential here is incredibly exciting.

  • Reply to

    Took 1/3 off the table today at $21.80

    by smaycs4 Nov 19, 2014 3:36 PM
    longtimefollower longtimefollower Jan 18, 2015 9:11 AM Flag

    Do you really think I live for day to day movements in stock prices? ANR is a potential 10 bagger, with over $5 in gross cash per share, and a $15 book value. Do I really care about short term price swings, on something whose option value is worth dramatically more than the current stock price, and whose true value will be astronomically higher, when met coal prices rebound. Will I really care after AKS is back to $6-7 by the end of January? And now, as I have dug down even deeper into ATNAF, and they have announced their gold production guidance for 2015 (on rising gold prices), that they are going to go from 33,000 ounces produced last year, to probably 60,000 produced this year? Generally speaking, if you KNOW what you own, maintaining a discipline to average down is a strategy that pays off. And many micro cap stocks like I typically own can be QUITE volatile, and quite unpredictably so. Yes, AKS's decline to $4 over the last few weeks is astonishing. But the CEO bought a cool $1 million worth of stock in the open market, several weeks ago, and I daresay that THAT is going to be more operative here, than the vagaries of wild short term price swings in the stock, based upon DELUDED macroeconomic perceptions in the broader marketplace, that FALSELY associate AKS with oil industry exposure, when it has NONE.

    Stocks go up, and stocks go down, especially in the short run. But if you are in the RIGHT ONES, on a fundamental valuation basis, eventually valuation will win out. And I expect to make a killing still in CLGRF, ATNAF, AKS, and ANR, in particular. On the oils, I would prefer a diversified approach, at this point, going for HERO, PGN, and possibly PWE and EXXI. But I also would be inclined to wait until oil prices settle out more, before adding more oil stocks generally, or at least until any individual stock I am looking at buying has shown a bottoming pattern.

  • Versus the year ago 4th quarter?! That is an UTTER EMBARRASSMENT, and a mark of COMPLETE FAILURE on Rouleau's part.

    Unfortunately, I never reshorted....although A couple of the accounts I oversee did.

    This thing should be trading at $12-14.

    More transactions....but average ticket flat to DOWN. That proves that they are NOT offering the kind of "spectacular finds" that are moving the needle with their customer base.

    The business model is MARGINAL, at best. A 3-5% type ROE outfit, as it stands. And Rouleau isn't going to be able to earn his keep to change that.

    Massively overvalued here. And will probably go down hard....because all the institutional "sheep" that got in here, over the last several months, are now going to all be heading for the exits at once.

    It could trade as low as $10, over the next few months.

    Rouleau has done wonders for operational execution and controls, but as has been said many times here, the most important thing he has FAILED in....and that is buying...and merchandising. And the problem is it isn't as much his fault (since th guy is really quite competent and has a good team). It is the BUSINESS MODEL'S fault. and it is only going to get gradually worse, over time, As TUES comtinues to get squeezed out of the market from everyone from TJ Maxx to Home Goods.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • longtimefollower longtimefollower Jan 30, 2015 1:04 AM Flag

    Im talking about the 4th calendar quarter, obviously.

  • This guy has been in charge of the company for roughly 2 years now....so I think I'm going to THROW UP if I hear about "low hanging fruit opportunities....as we work to rebuild the company." There is NOTHING NEW under the sun here, with Mr. Rouleau, but he, in snake oil salesman fashion, manages to keep the SHEEP that own this stock on the edge of their seats, in these delusional conference calls, with all of the wonderful things that are (presumably) ABOUT to happen. It is fatuous. It is manipulative. It is delusional. And it is deceptive,

    The FACT of the matter is the company, after 2 years of Rouleau's brilliance, is likely to earn NO MORE than 50 cents a share this fiscal year...which is less than a 10% ROE. And yet, the company is selling for roughly FORTY TIMES this year's earnings.

    Who ARE these people that keep buying this stock, being suckered into Rouleau's "tommorow is another day, Scarlett," flim flam? And this costant drumbeat of fatuous and smarmy "it only gets better from here" silliness?

    Rouleau: "We're in the very early stage of rebuilding our marketing program."

    WHY? You've been at this thing for 2 years. what possible excuse could you have for being in "the very early stage" of something so important?

    Rouleau: " We now know who are customers are, and where they live. This is important."

    It took you TWO YEARS to get to this point??

    Rouleau: "So many areas of improvement....that just need work."

    After TWO YEARS??

    Target range: $12-14

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • longtimefollower by longtimefollower Jan 30, 2015 2:23 AM Flag

    The company continues to do all the right things by its shareholders, and I am very pleased and gratified.

  • longtimefollower longtimefollower Jan 30, 2015 11:44 AM Flag

    It is certainly NOT about comparing him to Kathleen Mason anymore, and how much "worse" things would be if she were still on. That is asinine. Who CARES. That would be like Obama still blaming Bush. It is a matter of what has Rouleau really done for this company LATELY....what has he DONE in the last two years. And how UTTERLY SUGGESTIVE his comments of "low hanging fruit" and "loads of opportunities" are to a SLEIGHT OF HAND, that strings an investor base along, while Rouleau continues to stick coal in their stockings.

    The misplaced enthusiasm and exhuberance and "we have a million things to still do here to make gonzo profits" , in these conf calls, have became an UTTER EMBARRASSMENT. They are also clearly suggestive that he is DESPERATE, and doesn't know how to move the needle on the most important thing...getting people to BUY MORE when they are in the store. The lower initial markups strategy, in order to boost overall gross margin dollars has FAILED.....as evidenced by the mere $4 million increase in adjusted operating income, in the quarter just reported. NO ONE can deny that. This quarter was supposed to be THE quarter for this coming, with September 1st being the "launch pad" date for a bang up Christmas. Well, it didn't happen, and what is worse is that they can PRETEND in a conference call that this is all "part of the plan," and shift investors' focus to all the "exciting things that are yet to come."

    They are skilled manipulators of public perception....but their comes a point where your self respect is in tatters. They are AT that point....and the fact that they are still in make-believe land shows the level of their hubris.

    The Street is saying 40 cents this fiscal year, tops. That is a mid to high single digit ROE. The stock is worth no more than 2 to 2 1/2 x book, or $10-12.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • Reply to

    Well it's clear now

    by baaadapple Jan 30, 2015 10:05 AM
    longtimefollower longtimefollower Jan 30, 2015 11:50 AM Flag

    Will he keep trying? Or will he give up and retire? Isn't the guy like 77 years old now?

    I don't think he is one to give up, but this "low hanging fruit" bs is just that. And if his comtinued actions are lime pushing on a string, i would think they are more likely to sell the company than continue on with this nonsense. But the stock would have to drop to $5, before they could find a buyer, and that would be at a price of lime $8, probably. So it's all downhill from here....ESPECIALLY when all that massive institutional buying in the 2nd half of last year starts coming undone.

  • Reply to

    Delighted by the new board appointment.

    by longtimefollower Jan 30, 2015 2:23 AM
    longtimefollower longtimefollower Jan 31, 2015 2:33 AM Flag

    Originally, discount to book, and "game changer" nature of santoy gap, that was being IGNORED by the Street, because gold prices plunged in 2013, and this thing went from like 60% institutional ownership, to 10%. That selling is now long OVER, and the company has been undergoing ACCUMULATION for the better part of a year now.

    I believe the train is just leaving the station, and the company is on track to earn anywhere from 10-15 cents, Canadian, in EPS, this year. And if the gold price momentum, and Canadian dollar weakness continue, the upside could be even greater.

    The stock is trading at roughly HALF the value of its truest peers, currently, and If this year is as solid as expected, i think the stock could triple in as little as 12 months. Or get bought out sooner.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Well it's clear now

    by baaadapple Jan 30, 2015 10:05 AM
    longtimefollower longtimefollower Feb 1, 2015 12:34 AM Flag

    I could care less about selling too soon. That was eons ago. That is your figment. I am a student of valuation, and that is what i care about. And it has been quite clear that the most important thing, BY FAR, for Rouleau to do, he has FAILED in.....and thAt is boosting overall gross margin dollars from merchandise sales. The merchandise repositioning has only MARGINALLY registered on the needle. You can tout the same store sales gains all you want, but do you really see this company going from maybe 40 cents in EPS this year, to 75 next, to $1.00+ next? I hope you do....but even if you do, the CURRENT stock price is already discounting such a happenstance.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • longtimefollower longtimefollower Feb 2, 2015 8:10 PM Flag

    Virtually Irrelevant to the company. Stock talking about this nonsense. They are in their own niche and sector.

  • Reply to

    Profitability

    by obxbond Feb 2, 2015 1:34 PM
    longtimefollower longtimefollower Feb 2, 2015 8:21 PM Flag

    You can talk about what they "should" be delivering. But pretending like someone else can readily deliver that with a snap of the fingers is highly questionable. And no one is going to "take it private," with the stock at $18.

    The stock is significantly overpriced, based upon the return on equity, and TRAJECTORY of only modest improvement Rouleau has achieved, in total merchandise gross margin dollars, after being admittedly "all over this company," for the last 2 years. It gets MUCH harder from here for him, to move the needle. And that is why he is PRETENDING in the press releases like there is all of this "low hanging fruit." Because he needs to STALL FOR TIME. In this sense, despite otherwise being a competent manager, he is a MANIPULATIVE FRAUD. Because he figures, what else does he have to lose, if he can FIGURE OUT a way to improve overall profitability, in the meaning....even if he is largely CLUELESS, at this point. Since if he pretends otherwise, the SHEEP institutions that bought this stock are likely to believe him, possibly, for a good while longer. And yet, what truly competent manager would have "boatloads" of "low hanging fruit," two years after he took the helm. This is why I say Rouleau is disingenuous, fatuous, manipulative, and a flim flam artist. He KNOWS he's got a business model problem. But he also knows that he has generated enough (modest) improvement, that he can buy more time with the shareholder base, and "go for broke," over the next year....or "figure something out."

    The truth is there may be NOTHING to figure out....if the business model is permanently unfixable. It's not Radio Shack. But it's kind of like the old Alco Stores....SQUEEZED between an ever increasing retinue of competitors....while the old strength of the "treasure hunt," and "sales events," that used to turn on a core customer base, but now just largely yawns and could care less at "the TUES differentiation."

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • Reply to

    Delighted by the new board appointment.

    by longtimefollower Jan 30, 2015 2:23 AM
    longtimefollower longtimefollower Feb 3, 2015 12:13 AM Flag

    I did sell shares. And you can see my most recent filing on EDGAR. Even after selling, Claude represents 30% of my investible net worth in the stock market. I have partially diversified by shifting some of my Claude investment to another gold miner that, while riskier, I like even more for turnaround potential. Which shall remain nameless....for now....since I am buying more of it, as we speak. Although you might be able to figure it out, if you check my other posts of the last few months.

    I have suffered significant losses elsewhere, as my Claude investment has gone up, which pretty much mandated the reduction in my position. As it stands now, I think the turnaround is only beginning here, and with the company flying analysts up to the mine early this month, and the company more than tripling its investor days on the road this year, I think they are pretty convinced that their story is going to remain "on track," and that getting it out there is going to attract more buyers for the stock. Getting analyst coverage would also be a very important "return to favor" for Claude, and help restore the institutional shareholder base that I believe this company DESERVES. (Up until recently, I, and maybe a few others, were the only material "quasi-institutional" holders left in this stock. I am ESPECIALLY gratified that the things I saw in this company, one, and even two, years ago, are finally being borne out....in terms of the fundamental "game changing" nature of Santoy Gap....and the ability of this company to be MATERIALLY cash flow and profit positive, even at current gold prices....especially with the trend of an ever weaker Canadian dollar.

  • Reply to

    Profitability

    by obxbond Feb 2, 2015 1:34 PM
    longtimefollower longtimefollower Feb 3, 2015 12:16 AM Flag

    Thank you. I demand a thumbs up from you. lol

  • ....for the last SEVEN years in a row! Is Rouleau likely to turn that around? No. More likely, the company will lose something on the order of 5 cents a share, in the back half, giving it an EPS for the year around 35 cents. Does such a number, which represents roughly a 6% return on equity, even if the trajectory is for further improvement, going forward, justify a PE multiple of 50 times? Even if the company goes from 35 cents in fiscal 2015, to 75 cents in fiscal 2016, a rather dubious proposition, and probably the best case scenario, would that justify a multiple of more than 20-25x, which puts the stock ALREADY TODAY where it should be trading, 18 months from now? Absolutely not.

    The right price for the stock is in the $12-14 range, TOPS. Rouleau snake oil notwithstanding. You simply CAN'T price virtually the ENTIRE ANTICIPATED TURNAROUND into the stock right now. And it is pretty much priced in, because you won't see this company earning more than $1.00-1.25 at its peak, and that is probably, at that point, a company worth 15x earnings, or no more than the current stock price. And that is probably 2-3 years out....IF they can even accomplish that.

    It is time for the institutions that loaded up here to GET OUT of this pig. But I will be ESPECIALLY interested in seeing if insiders are buying, or selling, over the coming days.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • Aura is selling for 1/10 of book value, and Yamana dumps its investment for like $3 million, losing more than 90% of its investment. And then files no disclosure about it, except for a "hush hush" filing on Sedar on December 26th of last year. Does anyone have the skinny on this?

NTZ
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