But that's not what we're talking about. Nor is it relevant. What we are talking about is the fundamentals, and the guidance, and rouleau's "just wait until September 1st" b.s.....and his utterly shameless "we believe we are confident" claptrap.
Sentiment: Strong Sell
....in combined gross margin and SG&A (with 50 basis points coming from gross margins, and 100 basis points coming from SG&A), and the company increases sales from $865 million in 2014 to, say $950 Million in 2015, that would seem to suggest that overall operating profit is only expected to increase by $14 million pretax, or maybe $9 million, after tax. On a company that roughly broke even, on an after tax basis, in 2014, we are talking about an IMPLICIT MANAGEMENT PROJECTION of an EPS level somewhere around 20 cents a share for 2015, based upon the currently outstanding share base.
Even if they DOUBLE that guidance (which they won't), that would only put the stock at no more than 40-50 cents in bottom line, fully taxed earnings, in 2015.
I would like someone to point out what exactly, in managment's guidance in the conference call, I am missing, or how i am misrepresenting it.
Sentiment: Strong Sell
"...we believe that we are confident that we have a solid foundation in place," Mr. Rouleau concluded.
If that isn't melee mouthed, i don't know what is. Truly confidenteople CLAIM their confidence as an emotion. They don't state that they "believe" they are confident!
Rouleau is clearly hedging his bets, and has no idea whatsoever whether the necessariy sales volume, and margins, are going to come througn, to give credence to all of the "rabid remerchandising" they have been doing the last few years.....or if it is really just some kind of pointless shell game....sound and fury signifying nothing. The jury is STILL OUT. And yet, the stock is trading as if Rouleau is the 2nd coming of Christ.
READ what Rouleau says. He HEDGES something horrible in his public comments. And that is because he has NO IDEA whether the core of his efforts here, the remerchandising of TUES, is actually WORKING.
He HATES the idea of me making money.
One would think he would have enough of a life that he'd have more important things to do.
....and that i have been comtinually buying, in the extreme low $2's, up through the day before the earnings release. (After having bought at up to $2.90+, just before the LAST earnings release, and getting hosed, in the short term, after the last release.)
With Friday's close, this is now the second largest holding in my portfolio.
I want to thank uptab for his very salient points about this company, as posted on this board. More recently, i especially think his point that if this were viewed as a developmental stage OIS (and possibly other new product line) company, the market cap would likely be SIGNIFICANTLY higher than current. Very perspicacious. Very compelling.
I also like the Craig Hallum upgrade.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
Why am I not surprised, that davenport-mba didn't respond.
Anyone calling this a "strong buy" is out to lunch. A lot of your claims are TRUE...except the fact that Rouleau has failed in the most important area, and that is merchandising. NOTHING else really matters...or it only matters about 20%, anyway. UNLESS the new executive hires FIX the merchandising.
Sentiment: Strong Sell
They stopped taking live questions, several quarters back, after I "manhandled" them with intense questioning about the LA radio station that was being sold to the Mexican outfit. I fully suspect that was direct cause of their going to "written questions only."
I retain a modest position here....about 2% of portfolio. (At one time this was a 10%+ holding for me.) Right now, I'm a seller at $3.25-3.50, and a buyer at $2.65 and down. I didn't like all the insider selling at few months ago, in the $3's. They apparently knew things were going to be treading water for a while. This looks like dead money at $2.65-2.95.
Any purchases were done PRIOR to ED's action against the company. There have been no reports of any subsequent purchases. And I highly doubt there will be.
...tthe fact that he effectively destroyed Corinthian Colleges, through the sin of pride and hubris, and put them into (pending) bankruptcy.
That an executive would not sense, and would not FEEL, that "the end was near," and that he was "twisting in the wind," is the ultimate in incompetence and arrogance. Jack basically sent the message to the government that "we don't have to do anything you want"...and the government said, al contrair, Mr. Massimino.
Jack Massimino gets the ultimate booby prize....for reckless incompetence...and willfull blindness...and asinine contemptuous defiance.
To say "I know exactly what is coming" reveals your hubris, and grandiosity, in spades. Only ED knows exactly what is coming. Are you the Secretary of Education??
You are going to get your hat handed to you.
Thank you. Now, it would be nice if you would agree that it was very hard to see or know exactly when this game of musical chairs was going to stop. And that, if it continued for another year or more, COCO could have been a profitable "flip," buying the stock at $1.
I'm not a short. I'm a former long who lost his shirt, but got out within a day of the ED announcement effectively closing COCO down. Shareholders don't get treated nicely in what is effectively a government declaration of "game over." They are looking to PUNISH COCO management. Don't forget that.
You're living in the past. This doesn't matter any more, because entities looking to acquire COCO assets are more fearful than ever about the liabilities attached. The assets are going to go for a fire sale price, now. They are tarred and feathered, and buyers are FEARFUL. Unless COCO settles a ton of legal cases pronto, which seems highly unlikely.
DOE is certainly not "helping" the company. It is facilitating an "orderly wind down." That means shareholders are the LAST people DOE is concerned about.
They are basically, astonishingly, taking the assets AWAY from this sleazy management team, and saying "game over." The outcome of that process is very likely to involve 1) fire sales, and 2) outsized costs in the winding down process.
DOE, in my opinion, WANTS the shareholders of COCO to get nothing, and wants the remaining entity to go bankrupt....after all of the students are provided for. The reason they WANT that to happen is that they want to teach a lesson to similarly sleazy operators. To remind shareholder owners that if you get in bed with the devil, DOE will no longer just turn away its gaze, and hand over its money to you.
I can't believe the board didn't fire Jack, IMMEDIATELY upon this happenstance. It shows how feckless and cowardly they are. Although it wouldn't matter, at this point.