It's amazing how stupid the institutions could be that were chasing this pig at $18-22....and believing Rouleau's pure claptrap. The insider buying at higher prices was an INTENTIONAL SHAM....to present "false confidence."
"Our production and cost performance are sustainable." And "Claude is a sustainable 70k ounce a year producer."
This is ALL you need to know to know that Claude remains dramatically undervalued, relative to its expected future free cash flows. The possibility of achieving a 20% increase in mill throughput with a mere $2-3 million in capex (as stated in the conf call), along with the fact that we can drill and explore SO cheaply with our in house drill program.....tells me that if this stock doesn't trade up closer to fair value soon (which is at least $1.25 Canadian in my book), I would put a greater than 50/50 likelihood that someone steps in to buy this company in the next 6 months.
Do i regret selling, or having to sell, all the shares i did over the last couple years, after having once owned over 5.0% of this company? YES I DO. But i am happy that i still have 10% of my portfolio in it!
This company's operational performance over the last year has been nothing short of astonishing....ESPECIALLY since the long term picture has gotten so dramatically better...and current production, and costs, are
NOT a flash in the pan.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
Producing low cost "return of capital" gold from Briggs, which should allow a significant reduction in debt over the coming months. Meanwhile, Pinson continues to ramp up, and has the potential to be burnished as the "crown jewels" of Atna. (I note in their latest investor presentation, done at today's gold conference, they indicate that Pinson is the EIGHTH HIGHEST grade gold mine on the face of the planet, at roughly 14 grams per ton.)
The only risk seems to be the fact that their debt comes due in January, and they need to get a refi under their belts. But it would seem that at $1138 gold, the prospects for a succesful refi are high...especially considering their sub $900 all in stated cost guidance for 2016.
This is one of my largest holdings....and I am one of the company's largest shareholders. There is certainly risk here. But the reward potential is enormous....and the successful achievement of a refi would constitute "blue skies," likely giving a significant boost to the stock, as risk is suddenly dramatically reduced in one fell swoop.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
I agree with your take. The Street didn't like the last financial report, and the fact that the debt comes due soon. But the fact of the matter is that this company is probably the best positioned it has been, on an operating basis, since inception. In theory, if Pinson fires on all cylinders in 2016, the company could be selling at a market cap, right now, equal to an unfathomably cheap 1x free cash flow. And that, incredibly, would be true even if gold stays at the current price.
Atna has the chance, over the next 6-12 months, to FINALLY achieve respect on the Street. Pinson has the chance of becoming a truly "signature" asset for the company, with REAL financial results and free cash flow generation.
The buyback of a 2 million share block from Steelhead Partners affirms the value. Meanwhile, there is roughly $40+ million left to go on the buyback.
The tissue mill may not be up and running for another 15 months, but it is an efficient conversion from the company's pulp making from traditional (dying) paper to tissue (an always growing market).
Each 1% increase in interest rates (rates should eventually be going higher) is a roughly $300-400 million reduction in pension liability....and increase to shareholder equity.
The company has traditionally traded like a cyclical, with pricing power coming in at the later stages of an economic recovery. We will probably be entering such a stage, globally, over the next year or two.
Selling at a huge discount to book, with tons of asset value....a potential private equity or strategic player takeover candidate, and low and manageable debt.
An unloved "ugly duckling." A classic contrarian play.
Savvy value investor Prem Watsa, and other disciplined deep value players like Donald Smith & Co., own shares...with Watsa owning 30%+ of the company, and having "his man" as chairman of the board!
The company, management, and ownership structure means they are INCENTIVIZED to perform, and the current base of large shareholders will ensure as such!
Sentiment: Strong Buy
I think it might have support at $4....so am willing to pay a bit higher.
Nice job selling out the last of your shares at the top.