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Scott's Liquid Gold Inc. Message Board

longtimefollower 51 posts  |  Last Activity: Jun 25, 2016 12:40 AM Member since: May 12, 2000
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  • Reply to

    KOPN Short Interest - 4/15/16

    by haschultz1 Apr 27, 2016 10:52 PM
    longtimefollower longtimefollower May 4, 2016 7:45 AM Flag

    GOod catch. The addl shorting has only added more pressure on the stock. I note, too, that State Street, in an early 13F filing, sold over 1 million shares in Q1.

    It seems to me there has been little new institutional interest in buying this stock, the last several months....and rumor has it that the T Rowe price fund manager that "liked" this stock left a while back, and the analyst for T Rowe price that followed the company is also gone....which may explain their indiscriminate dumping. Once they are "done," and I would think we wouldn't be too terribly far from that point, I think this stock could bounce back to $2.50-3.00......like almost every other stock that has bounced off its February lows, and is back to where it was late last year. The notion that KOPN should be one of the few exceptions is patently absurd...especially since their cash hoard and new product cycle should be more deterministic of the stock's price, versus the fact that the bottom line numbers were nasty in Q4 2015. (THe "sizzle" could easily return here...especially if they get a contract announcement or two.)

    In the meantime, as we wait, I would hardly be surprised to see this thing bought out at $3+.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • longtimefollower by longtimefollower May 3, 2016 12:39 AM Flag

    Sold for $1.9 B. Revenues of that division are $1.5 B annualized.

    If RFP's pulp division were simply valued at sales, the division would be worth $900 milion, or $9 per share. (Of course, this doesn't account for any company debt paydown.)

    I'm kind of surprised RFP didn't "pop" on the announcement. WY is the #1 market pulp player in North America. And RFP is #3. IP's buying WY's pulp operations consolidates the industry, and, all other things being equal, should marginally enhance pricing power for RFP in market pulp.

  • longtimefollower by longtimefollower May 2, 2016 11:49 PM Flag

    I'll buy if it drops back to $4.00-4.05. Maybe.

  • longtimefollower longtimefollower Apr 29, 2016 5:53 PM Flag

    Does anyone know if there is a reason to think Fan might be PRECLUDED from buying stock? Pending contracts, inside info, etc.? One would think if he liked it at $2.85 last August, he would love it a hell of a lot more at$1.65 now.

  • Reply to

    Such an age-old game. Why on Earth would

    by uptabdowntab Apr 26, 2016 5:41 PM
    longtimefollower longtimefollower Apr 27, 2016 9:39 AM Flag

    I'm not sure that is what is going on. I think they actually believe this is such a "dog" now, such that the rally in the stock price from the $3.80 low, to the $6.80 high, warranted a downgrade. That's silly, because we are not even remotely close to fair value......but the analysts are also looking at a modestly disappointing U.S. Housing starts number....and fearful that means the rally in lumber prices this year will fail.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • longtimefollower by longtimefollower Apr 25, 2016 4:43 PM Flag

    From $5.52-5.70. I see this as a gift. I think $5.50 is likely to be a rock solid bottom....unless the market collapses, of course, in which $5'ish looks really good.

    I now have about 15% of my investible net worth in this one.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Doubling down?

    by keyes_fred Apr 25, 2016 9:46 AM
    longtimefollower longtimefollower Apr 25, 2016 4:41 PM Flag

    RBC and who else?

  • Reply to

    The race against time continues.

    by longtimefollower Apr 20, 2016 11:37 AM
    longtimefollower longtimefollower Apr 24, 2016 10:34 AM Flag

    Because it is carried at historical cost, right?

  • Reply to

    Norske Skog 1st quarter earnings release.

    by longtimefollower Apr 23, 2016 3:01 AM
    longtimefollower longtimefollower Apr 23, 2016 5:45 PM Flag

    I should have said they are "east of the pond." Not west.

  • ....for May 1st. This includes Resolutes Ponderay mill. Announced at the beginning of April.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • longtimefollower by longtimefollower Apr 23, 2016 3:01 AM Flag

    They are the 2nd largest global newsprint producer (after Resolute). Their operations are west of "the pond," primarily in Norway. Amazingly, they are saying that they were operating at 100% of capacity utilization on newsprint in Q1 2016! And that they estimate that Europe and North America combined were operating at 95% in Q1 2016.

    They, RFP, and others, are continuing to look to convert newsprint mills to consumer tissue, in order to continue to rein in the supply of newsprint. They expect a contination of capacity utilization of well above 90% through 2017, and a favorable pricing environment.

    A favorable environment for newsprint in Europe HAS to be positive for the environment in North America. The market is the most balanced it has been in several years.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • These rubes and "hayseeds" won't know what hit them.

  • Reply to

    spread of 42 cent right now

    by lm38mul Apr 22, 2016 11:05 AM
    longtimefollower longtimefollower Apr 22, 2016 11:09 AM Flag

    So play marketmaker and capture that spread for yourself.

  • longtimefollower by longtimefollower Apr 22, 2016 11:08 AM Flag

    Completely asinine. DElusional. GRandiose. WAste of money.

    THe only one that is going to make money on this deal is Nick Jonas.

    Apparently, Sharp is now taking management advice from his 16 year old daughter. Brilliant.

    It, along with his mealy mouthed babbling in the conference call, makes me not want to reenter, unless it drops in to the mid $10's or less.

    This management team is completely boneheaded, and the business has suffered from lousy returns forever. (WHy can they only earn $1 in EPS annually, with a $20 book value? Why is a 5% ROE acceptable??)

    This company needs to be taken out of its misery, and someone needs to swoop in and buy this thing out for $16.50. It needs to be part of a larger entity. Watching Sharp & Co. fiddle around with the thing, and think they are good enough for the shareholders, is Like being put in a straitjacket. And the Nick Jonas thing shows that the guy is now totally out in left field.

    FInally, WHAT is the exact excuse they didn't buy back stock over the prior months? Locked out? WHY??

  • longtimefollower by longtimefollower Apr 22, 2016 10:36 AM Flag

    Don't miss it. IMHO?

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • longtimefollower by longtimefollower Apr 20, 2016 11:37 AM Flag

    $56 million in trailing 12 month FCF. But $900 million in debt. And print revenue declines continue to KILL them.

    Question: Does anyone have ANY estimated range of what the non-newspaper digital (i.e. CareerBuilder) are worth? If they could get, say, $500 million for all of this stuff, and monetize another $100 million in real estate for the parent company, wouldn't that put the company in a much different place?

    Are there ANY private market value estimates for CareerBuilder?

  • longtimefollower by longtimefollower Apr 19, 2016 4:32 PM Flag

    FYI, I posted a Seeking Alpha article on RFP this past Friday....the first article I have posted since my article on Claude, just over a year ago. I would welcome any Claude shareholders, who appreciated my analysis here, to join me on the "ride" with RFP....whose train seems to be just leaving the station now.

  • I posted an article last Friday, that is now available for free, to all comers, for the next 30 days or so, before going back behind the paywall. Seeking Alpha deems the article a "must read."

    In the article, I explain, in great detail, why I have set a 3-6 month target of $8-10 on the stock, 6-12 month target of $10-15, and 1-2 year target of $14-18. In a better case scenario, the stock could see as high as $30, in a couple years...assuming the company's venture into tissue is successful.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • longtimefollower longtimefollower Apr 11, 2016 4:19 AM Flag

    Read the latest 10-Q. The answers are there for you.

  • Amazing. I guess to the "Street," it's not a sale until its actually recorded as such. But doesn't this get the "clock ticking," on a "catalyst event," that might very well establish that thing as worth a hell of a lot closer to book value? Is the zoning change granted to the developer, that allows this land to be DEVELOPED, worth nothing??

    I'm amazed it's not at a $10 bid, at least, at this point. Just For one, ALL the debt is paid off now.

    Who ever heard of something with a hard book 3 times the current stock price, and no debt, trading for 1/3 of book? And after the land is sold, they still have these ROCK SOLID notes that pay them like 12%+, for years and years to come.

    I wish the 80% owner would just take it completely private, right now, at, say, $13. I don't need to capture every last dollar.

    Will ANYONE ever figure out this company, other than me?

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

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