You're just as sleazy as you indignantly accuse me of being. You talk up your book.
I reinitiated a short position, a few weeks back, and continue to add. If you read the last conference call transcript, it is pretty clear that the current quarter is going to have what Rouleau sedulously refers to as "lumps and bumps."
I believe the inside buying by him and the chairman are pulling the wool over the market's eyes, and are setting up for a major disappointment upon the next earnings release.
This stock is FULLY PRICED for any reqsonable prospects of a turnaround now. $1 in EPS is a 20% ROE, and I think it is doubtful they will achieve more than that, at best. Slap a 15-18 multiple on that and you got a $15-18 stock. Even if they do $1.50 in EPS, if you slap a 15 multiple on that, it's $22.50.
The EVIDENCE suggests that the additional sales volume is NOT coming through, with the repositioned merchandising. They are getting more traffic, but a LOWER average ticket. That means the lower initial markups are a double edged sword, and they are giving away margin, as they are getting nominallly more overall volume. The bulls will argue that the consumer needs time to "rediscover" the "new" TUES....and that is possible....but i would certainly say, as far as the Street is concerned, that with the stock in nosebleed territory now, it is do or die time for Christmas.
....is a canard. The notion that the "lumps and bumps" Rouleau referred to in the June quarter is a relection of something "wonderful"......when it is really code language for the fact that they have ADDITIONAL SIGNIFICANT clearance markdowns to take, bespeaks of a restructuring and repositioning that is not only "out of comtrol"....but is a failure.
The proof will be in the pudding in two very important outcomes. 1) Will they be able to show increased gross margins, and continually increasing same store sales, and 2) will they be able to continue to relocate store and show massive increases in sales at those stores.
I'm not convinced of either one, but most significantly, i'm not convinced they are going to be able to show any material gross margin increases. My own belief is that this business is going to be, at best, earning anywhere from 0-50 cents in annualized EPS.
Rouleau's and COB's mini block buy was to "play the street," and get them to "keep the fsith." I personally believe it was comtrived, and totally for show. More significant has been Becker drapkin's selling.
I'm waiting for higher prices to add to my short, but certainly will add, breaks into the $20's....and will "upgrade" it to a "strong sell"
This was typed on May 12th, but it wouldn't "take" on Yahoo....and I never tried reposting it until now:
5.4 M adjusted operating loss.
Mason had $6.1, in the same 2012 quarter, and $5.2 operating loss, in 2011.
There has been NO MATERIAL IMPROVEMENT in the company's fortunes under Rouleau. This is especially true on the merchandising front, as the company has added efficiencies in distribution and freight, and reduced SG&A. Therefore, on an absolute gross margin (merchandising) basis, Rouleau has ABJECTLY FAILED.
Yet, perversely, the stock has TRIPLED, when Rouleau has NOTHING to show for himself.
This guy is a fraud...at least as far as his performance at TUES goes.
I fully expect Becker Drapkin to be dumping more shares in here. They'd be fools not to.
I plan on shorting.
The $5.4 million is the adjusted operating loss, under the cult figure, Rouleau, in the 1st calendar quarter. The $6.1 and $5.2 million figures are the comparable Q1 loss figures under Mason, in 2012 and 2011, respectively.
What exactly, I DEMAND TO KNOW, has Rouleau done to improve this business, over the Mason Era? The stock is up roughly FOUR TIMES OVER now! For no reason.
Sentiment: Strong Sell
the government basically decided to "punish" an insolent and defiant management, and is shutting the company down. There won't be any debtor in possession financing. shareholders are paying the price for a management that was engaging in fraudulent representations that pushed the government over the edge.
They are deciding to make an example of corinthian, to show everyone else they better shape up.
This, no doubt, strikes the terror of Jesus in the entire industry....especially the ESI's, CECO's, and education managements of the world.
I am happy to get out and salvage 30 cents, as i believe this will end up worthless in fairly short order.
Sentiment: Strong Sell
I don't believe that was knowable. The fact that, 8-9 months ago, ED waived the company's need for a letter of credit, related to the financial stability score, suggested to me that the government was NOT looking to attempt to shut down Corinthian. Obviously, attitudes within ED changed over the intervening months.....because now ED is overtly seeking to come up with an "excuse" to shut the company down. (The 21 day delay in paying COCO no doubt has the INTENTION of pushing the company over the edge.) They are basically punishing mangement, and making an example of them.
If the truth of the manipulation of information is true, i hope there will be criminal fraud charges against appropriate COCO mangement figures.
I think they knew EXACTLY what they were doing, when they put COCO on a 21 day delay. And that their intentions are clear.....even though they are DISINGENUOUS in the way they are communicating those intentions.
The very fact that it could come to this testifies to the height of his arrogance and stupidity and grandiosity. Why didn't he voluntarily leave the company months ago, in order to save it? Why didn't this stupid 11 member board know that It was getting to the final straw with ED.
Will the government, in the end, be able to prove fraud, and will Jack be criminally indicted?? One would feel better if such was the case. Otherwise, That he could get away with "mere" stupidity and arrogance would leave a sorry taste in one's mouth.
The fact of the matter is that he, and this stupid board, should have known the company was WAY out on a limb with ED.
Jack's statement referring to an "orderly transition of our operations" shows it is, indeed, over, and that ED has effectively decided to force COCO to close. Everything from this point onward will be on ITS terms.
Sentiment: Strong Sell
Pure contrivances. They wanted to show "faith," that the story is still intact. But the buys are token. If they hadn't bought, the street wouldn't have trusted rouleau's "new company on sept 1st" folderol, and the stock would have dropped to $8-10, after the last earnings release.
Rouleau and burman are just buying time. But it only means the stock goes down MUCH HARDER, after the xmas results come out, are disappointing... and rouleau starts talking about more merchandise "repisitionings," and "necessary clearances," to set us up for an "absolutely fantastic future."
We're getting pretty close to the "pay no attention to the man behind the curtain" time with these bozos. In fact, that's EXACTLY what burman 's and rouleau's open market buys fatuously represent. I see it as an integrity issue. What they have to lose, they're thinking, if it "buys" them credibility, for another 6 months....when that credibility should be in tatters, at this point.
Nonsense. I sold 2.6 million shares over two days. Salvaging the capital will almost certainly be the smart move. And the courageous one.
The government made a decision. They are not going to go back on it. They are going to make an example of corinthian....and "punish" and humiliate Massimino and Co. For defying them, and making a mockery out of their authority.
Insiders would not be allowed to sell stock in the open market. They'd be thrown in jail.
I don't you've EVER been short this stock...or ever made a dime in the stock market in your life. Your just too busy lording over yourself. Goo'gooing and gaa'gaaing.
It wasn't that "the book value didn't have value" with COCO....it's that the government decided it had had enough, and had state attorneys general breathing down its back, and decided to shut COCO down suddenly. That really fouls up any reasonable expected value scenario one had with COCO, because the game of musical chairs suddenly stops. I estimated the risk of the government doing such a thing as much lower than it was. I partly made that assumption based upon the fact that, last fall, the government "waived coco through" on the financial sustainability ratio, and did NOT require a posting of a letter of credit. Unfortunately, things changed drastically, since then, and "the powers that be," including, i believe, the POTUS himself, decided it was time to "make an example" of "the worst of the worst" of the for profit colleges. In restrospect, Leon Panetta getting on the board of COCO, and then off, 3 months later, may have been the canary in the coal mine.
Nothing short of astonishing, really. Calls for all manner of superlatives.
The stock could easily trade for double the current price....and damn well should.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
I didn't say i doubled down last week. I didn't say anything, nor shall i right now. Because i have nothing to say. Except that i think uptab is very savvy.
You're in dreamland. The company said nothing about shareholders. They are in a FIRE SALE of assets, which will get much less than you say. And the wind down expenses will be extraordinary.
The stock is trading at 20 cents for a reason. My guess is there is less than a 10% chance that shareholders get anything. "The powers that be" have decided to drive a stake through the heart of COCO. That means that they "plan" on shareholders getting nothing....in order to "teach a lesson" to the "evil people" that were running this thing.....and to the other for profits.
I hope Masimino is charged with criminal fraud. Separately, I feel the company hid from investors, and downplayed the fact that ED was looking for very specific info, that the company was not providing. And WHY weren't they providing it. Isn't THAT a breach of fiduciary duty, in its own right? Ignoring the goverment, that supplies 85% of your revenues?
Basically, ED decided "You don't provide us with information when we ask for it, we close you down." If that is what they decided (that the clowns at the top of COCO will NEVER run a for profit college again, essentially), they are SEEKING to ensure that shareholders get nothing. And that WILL be the outcome here. This is not a good time to be selling these assets.
To say you NEVER sell a stock you buy, for any reason, is the mark of an amateur. You HAVE to be willing to sell. If you can't change with the fundamentals, you will lose as much as you win in the stock market, and your returns will be BELOW average, or even negative. Curring losses is critically important. (Mind you, I am also a huge fan of averaging down....but only when I should. COCO being one case when I was mistaken in averaging down. But I turned on a dime, when ED announced they were ripping the rug out from under these stooges.)
This is now my largest coal holding. I prefer it to ACI, now.
This is a spectacular intermediate to long term buy, imho. I agree with the Seeking Alpha article.
Buy it for the discount to book, and turnaround potential. Sell it for break even or better, a year or more from now, if things don't turn around.
This one is due for a major dead cat bounce....regardless of the near to intermediate term fundamentals. They have liquidity, so bankruptcy is NOT an issue for a good long while.
Sentiment: Strong Buy