And lower interest expenses massively. The stock is heading for $4.50-6.00, easy. Probably within 6 months.
Spent 2+ hours, going thoroughly through the entire store. I don't suggest that there is anything scientific about my analysis....especially since i haven't been in one of their stores for probably several years prior. I did spend $375 (yes, even though i'm short the stock!), including $200 on a 7x9 foot carpet.
I don't have very many observations, except to say that the store was well stocked, and well organized. They told me that they sweep like 1/3 of the aisles, on a rolling basis, every day.....but it seems clear that they never WASH the floor, which was quite dingy, dirty, and unsightly in spots. I'm not making a big deal out of that, nor the fact that the store only had a handful of customers, at any time while i was there.
I do question the ability of Rouleau and company to dramatically transform the business model, when certain key departments, likde bedding and linens, kitchen/dining, luggage, etc., seem pretty "fixed" in their nature.
I can't say i was particularly compelled by ANY of the "bargains" i saw, which is probably the biggest problem i see for them....with the exception of one $10 decorative xmas glass piece that was a well priced impulse item. But nothing else reallly "screamed" at me. (I bought the things i did because i don't like to shop, and since this was a systematic shopping trip, i figured i would "reward" myself for the effort involved.
I guess i was looking for the possibility, in making my trip to the store, that i would feel the "irresistible" need to cover my short. I was certainly open to that possibility......but that is not a feeling i felt. I wish i would have seen what the "old" stores looked like 6, and 12, and 18 months ago, so i would have a basis for comparison, but i do not.
Have any of you TUES old timers out there noticed any dramatic differences between this xmas and last xmas, in terms of the assortments, merchandising, breadth, pricing, etc.? Are you filling up your baskets more/less?
There's no reason to be long TUES. There are better things to be long, with less risk. But I do agree that Best Buy is overvalued. (I assume that's what you meant by BBBB.)
This is a fundamental short....and i fully expect to make a killing. It's really quite simple. xmas couldnt POSSIBLY be good enough to justify thia stock price, AND, Becker Drapkin would not be selling as aggressively as they are, if this thing were anything remotely close to an impending turnaround.
I fully expect the stock to see $8-9 within 3 months.
Sentiment: Strong Sell
Accidentally hit the wrong button, and posted before I was complete. Glad I am out of this stock. I'll continue to view it merely as a "swing trading" stock....and not as a long term hold. The latter just feels too dirty, emotionally and psychologically.
This thing is effectively a scam. No self respecting management, assuming it viewed this company as having the future earnings potential that the bulls think it does ($2-3 in EPS??) would issue shares at this price.
They sing the praises of how "undervalued" the things they acquire are....but then they never justify that with the returns they get on the purchases. (i.e. SCAM)
They are building the strongest and largest nationwide network possible, at a "pay any price" (in terms of dilution of TA shareholders) mentality, because they DON'T CARE about TA shareholders. They are operating the company "for" HPT and the Portnoys. Because TA management are schills for Portnoy.
TA is, and always will be, as long as the Portnoys are involved, HPT's #$%$." It exists as a CAPTIVE SLAVE for HPT.
And that per share cash amount is going to climb SIGNIFICANTLY, as they buy in shares, over the coming months. I'd be amazed is the stock wasn't trading at $3, at least, by spring. In fact, why don't they do a Dutch Tender for up to 5 million shares, between $2.50-3.00. That would be a good idea, it would seem. Between the cash on the balance sheet, the intent to buyback stock, and the value of the remaining business, EVENTUALLY...and hopefully that is within 12-18 months, I think this stock will be trading for at LEAST $4-5....as the per share cash amount climbs to, say $6+, and Street assigns some value to the business remaining, as well.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
And the market tends to discount the future.
I would actually prefer to have no position in the stock...unless it runs up to $4.50-5.00, in which case, i would want to be short. (I'd be a buyer at $2.25-2.50.)
Just to be clear, I am not long the stock. Most recently, I was short (but covered way too soon...before they announced bankruptcy).
That's too risky. You may end up out of the stock at 14 cents, and find it trading at 18 cents at the end of December. This stock is too cheap to sell. Or you could sell out at 14 cents, and someone could come in with a 40 cent takeover bid, while you're out of it.
The market cap on this stock is insanely cheap, considering the value of Seabee.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
The company would not be "way undervalued" at $5. That's pure greed talking on your part. It's going to take further debt paydowns, and evidence that revenues can stabilize, to justify moving above $5. It's certainly possibly, but you're talking a year or two away for that. Reversion to the mean is more likely, over the intermediate term.
Who knows. I didn't say it wasn't going to "blow off." But if it does, then there's a short term shorting opportunity. I would imagine if it spiked to $4.50-5.00, a retracement to $3.50 would be in order. The thing about this company is, with so much of it's overall value tied up in the value of the debt, as perceptions change about the overall enterprise value, the common stock could be worth $1.....or $5...depending on what your view of the trajectory of debt paydowns, and maintenance of cash flow is. It's an interesting game. But anyone who hasn't peeled SOME off, at this point (like 25% of an overall position), is imprudent, in my view. I have a token short position remaining, which I never closed out....but closed out 95% of the peak position, fortunately, the last time we dropped to $2.75. I will reshort some at $4.50, and then again at $5, on any heavy volume "squeeze" we may see. Longer term, the company is a "hold" at these prices.
Stock goes nowhere. What is this bs?