Didn't see any news, other than the news from a few days ago on Gabelli increasing.
$5 was a resistance level. Now that we're above $5, it would seem to me that we could go significantly higher.
I have a modest position here (1% of my portfolio), but have seen this, since I started buying late last year, as an excellent and timely "turnaround" candidate....and also a takeover candidate. My buy out price in a full and fair auction: $8-9
The company has been around awhile, and I suspect has undervalued real estate on the books (although I haven't investigated this in great detail).
You're basically counting on the new lines catching on. They've been struggling to keep their head above water, and it remains to be seen whether they can get back their cachet and moxie. I personally doubt they will. They had the sector to themselves, nearly, many years ago, and, in fact, created it. But now, they're fighting for their life, and are seen, generally, as "yesterday" by the kiddies. The ongoing operating losses are still very serious...and the balance sheet getting weaker and weaker.
Unless you have your finger VERY close to the pulse of what is going on in the actual stores, there are better, less risky stocks to be long. This thing is a crapshoot, at this point. At best.
The guidance was poor. Aren't the new lines supposed to gussy up results? Blaming the weather is just not good enough. They are still going to lose a lot of money this year. Even if they, say, reduce the loss by another 1/3 this year, that's not good enough. Besides, I'm not convinced they will. The CEO seems to be going out of his way to sound as cautious, and uninspired, as possible.
We may not go below $2, but then again, it could retrace all the way to $1.60 or so.
The Street loves buying the "dogs," when the market is on a tear.
Plus the short interest is huge. This is a sure-fire winner over the coming months. IMHO.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
God only knows who you're talking to. He "probably" owns the bonds...is not a statement worth posting. We don't need to waste our time on your idle speculations here. Blah, blah, blah, blah, blah.
They are definitely going to be reducing debt faster than the shrinkage in revenues. (Revenues may even turn flattish, I'm guessing, with the economy heating up....which would be a huge boon, if they can keep reducing costs maybe 2.5-4% a year. Maybe.)
I'm convinced they're going to be able to "defend" the cash flows, over the next 3 years, at least. And that alone, at maybe $75 M+ a year, will get their debt down to maybe $700 M....an ever more bearable number, over time.
It's probably a $10 stock in 6-8 years, I'm guessing, which would be about 35% annualized growth from here. But I guess if you think they're going to keep "shrinking," say, 3-4% a year, without being able to reduce costs as much as that shrinkage, thinks could look a lot scarier. But that's what makes a market, of course. (I'm not expecting to hold my position for 6-8 years anyway, but to trade the swings....if they are significant enough. This one is too volatile, over the long run, even if not recently, to avoid trading the swings.)
Based on future analyst estimates....$1.20 for 2013 and $1.59 for 2014. The stock is increasingly being seen as a timely value AND growth AND "momentum" play. I see $12-15 by mid summer....and possibly as high as $12-13 in the next 2-8 weeks. When the fuel dispensers all come back on line, that should help offset the "drag" we've been seeing, on the fuel volume front . Also, any additional coverage on the natural gas arrangement with Shell provides important long term growth potential...and "sex appeal."
That would only happen if there were the kind of opportunities to buy travel centers at the prices they were finding 2 years ago. I still think that deal to sell shares at $5.69 was raunchy, to say the least, but unless you are aware of more "deals" out there, like existed 2 years ago, management is probably not that sleazy.
Unfortunately, you do point out a legitimate risk, that may cap the near term move, I'm guessing, to the old highs from 2 or so years ago, at, say, $12-12.50. (But I DO think that the MASSIVE volume we saw today...basically the highest in 2 or so years...shows that this move is bonafide....and that we have higher to go on this stock, over the coming days.)
That's fine, but you really didn't answer my question. Is the core business underlyingly growing, or do we have a "market share" problem? I wanted a direct answer.
And use that shrinkage to raise the capital they need, apparently. The question is whether or not, as they claim, that the "right-sized" business will actually be profitable. I don't trust these guys, or McGreevey's, or McGoo's (or whatever his name is) competence, that he actually knows what he is doing.
The charges and write downs, along with expected operating losses, are going to eliminate FULLY HALF of their book value....or more. And they're still going to have a lot of debt.
Is there really a "core business" that is profitable, as they state? I'm a skeptic. I personally think this incompetent CEO is going to fall on his face, and the company will file bankruptcy in Jan or Feb of 2014.
If we climb to $1.15-1.35 or higher, I'll start reshorting. In the meantime, it's hard to say what the stock is going to do. If they have term sheets from lenders, they probably will be able to generate the liquidity they need, in the short term, and the stock could trade between 40-85 cents for now, would be my guess.
Haven't listened to cc yet. I see they say that there were a number of dispensers off-line, and they got rid of some low margin business. But, the big question is, leaving out those two items, do they think their volumes would have been up??