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Lee Enterprises, Incorporated Message Board

longtimefollower 40 posts  |  Last Activity: Feb 4, 2016 12:52 AM Member since: May 12, 2000
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  • Reply to

    Tsunami of sellers

    by as0nwecc Dec 31, 2015 4:02 PM
    longtimefollower longtimefollower Jan 6, 2016 1:12 AM Flag

    Hardy har har har.

  • longtimefollower by longtimefollower Dec 31, 2015 7:06 PM Flag

    This thing has fleas!

    Haven't had involvement in a good long while. Waiting for $8.50-8.75, and down, to enter. (It may or may not get that low.)

    I'm still not convinced that their going from 16 million shares out, to 38 million, over the last several years, did right by shareholders, considering how undervalued those shares have been, relative to asset value...

    ...But they never really primarily cared about creating shareholder value here. They have primarily cared about damning the torpedoes of their self respect as fiduciaries, and growing this thing "no matter what." And doing that for HPT. The master/slave relationship has really been quite transparent...which means sub-par returns on assets and equity will continue to be the order of the day here, as the management and other interlocks between TA and HPT continue to stink up the place. Which is why I require drastic undervaluation to again enter. I view this company is a "ward" of are its executives. And one must never forget that. About the only "nice" thing about being a ward of HPT was the willingness of "the master" to cut TA that rent deal, when it looked like the company would be in deep doo doo, back 5 or so years ago.

    But it can be a great trading vehicle, at the very least, and is likely to be "kept alive forever," to feed its host. But it always feels dirty to own this...

  • longtimefollower longtimefollower Dec 31, 2015 6:52 PM Flag

    I agree with you on the Saudis. I think their attitude right now is to cause as much SHORT TERM pain as possible. If oil is "driven down" to $30, in the short run, and it spooks the capital budget allocators of all the "new oil" found over the last 5 or so years, then they figure maybe they can put a "permanent crimp" on capital development.

    But that doesn't mean that, by spring, they will not be looking to have prices rise. And if they think that a mere "surprise announcement" of OPEC getting religion on quotas, can serve to get prices back over, say, $50, they will be loath to let the market "suffer," and have exaggerated perceptions of a market out of balance, when it will be quickly coming into balance by then. Also, it won't be too long that opec members will be crying uncle, because of the hole that is being blown in their respective budgets....and begging Saudi Arabia to all come together to shows "discipline"...even if they all cheat on their quotas.

    I think there are short and long term opportunities in undervalued stocks like HERO, TDW, IO, TCK, CLD, CEQP, and possibly CVEO.

  • longtimefollower longtimefollower Dec 31, 2015 6:38 PM Flag

    Well, 18 months, give or take, is a relatively long period of time. The option has more value than $2.15. The long term asset value is huge here.

  • longtimefollower longtimefollower Dec 28, 2015 2:27 AM Flag

    The balance sheet was just recapitalized, Mike, with $1.2 B in debt wiped out, and $450 M in new cash put in. Look at it this way, at a $35 M quarterly burn, it would take over 10 years for them to burn through all that "new capital" put in. Now, they won't NEARLY be given that much time....but if they are given 2 years, and oil is up and, per their bankruptcy court projections, they could be making roughly $1 in EPS by then.....the stock could be selling at, say, anywhere from $8-15. Not bad for a couple year's work.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • longtimefollower longtimefollower Dec 28, 2015 2:22 AM Flag

    But the leases are the least of their problems. The turnover rate on their leases is high (per the discussion in the earnings conf. call), and they said that virtually all the stores are four wall profitable.

  • longtimefollower by longtimefollower Dec 28, 2015 2:13 AM Flag

    Maybe this is why they fired the CEO?

    Can this thing get back to $1+ billion in revenues, and $3 in annual EPS? Or is the biz permanently compromised?

  • longtimefollower longtimefollower Dec 27, 2015 12:28 PM Flag

    The increase in op. inc. was because of gain on sale of equipment. They were DOWN without that.

  • Idiots! If they don't turn around the earnings in calendar 2016, the CEO should be FIRED for the insanity of buying back stock like there was no if that was the best use of capital?! And watch, because of the drastic decline in results, they will STOP buying back stock now, at $5...when they were buying it back at $15+ before a year or so ago. If that isn't committing hiri kiri, I don't know what is. Now these idiots raise the dividend a penny, when they should have REDUCED it to a penny a quarter, and pledged to put all of that money into an additional stock buyback. Capital allocation 101. Duh.

  • And he almost sounds like he is in denial in the earnings conference call, with loads of MISPLACED BABBLING OPTIMISM about all of the "wonderful initiatives" PIR has been engaging in. (If I hear one more utterance about "omni-channel," I am just going to throw up.)

    No, Mr. Smith, it is about MERCHANDISING and BUYING, and you obviously took your eye off the ball. FIRE your head merchant, or get someone in there who can make PIR relevant again. Also criminal is that the Chinese currency has weakened by a high single digit percent, in the the last 18 months, which should have been a TAILWIND at the company's back. What happened there.

    I am considering entering this stock, but but what sickens me is the lack of any real EXPLANATION for what has happened here....and the propounding of a whole host of what sound like EXCUSES and DEFLECTIONS.

    Has Smith lost his moxie? Where is the insider open market buying, after the earnings release? Is the window currently closed? I want to see these guys get OFF THEIR BUTTS, and buy stock in the open market at $5.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • longtimefollower by longtimefollower Dec 25, 2015 4:45 AM Flag

    ....when it cast this garbage off, 20 or so years ago now.

    Goodbye Imation. You get the all-time "value trap" booby prize.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • ....all the old $1.2 billion in unsecured debt eliminated, and $450 million in NEW secured money put in. Yet, even with the TOTAL RECAPITALIZATION of the company (including effectively converting $1.2 billion from debt to equity), the stock is trading for the same absolute price ($2.50) for what it was a year ago, before the "final swoon"? That seems absolutely insane. If there is $1.2 billion in "additional equity" now, and the current operation burn may only be $35 million a quarter (dropping to $25 million once the Highlander is operating), it hardly seems like a doomsday scenrio...and there seems a rather generous amount of time for turnaround.

    I love the "option" value here. The operating leverage is enormous. I also wonder what happens in January, when the debt holders that were converted to equity, and are taking tax losses now, stop selling.

    I'm delighted for a "2nd bite at the apple," at these prices. Astonished, really.

  • longtimefollower by longtimefollower Dec 25, 2015 4:20 AM Flag

    What a sad way to go out. Massive dilution for the believers and loyalists. This wasn't what was intended at all. Astonished, and terribly disappointed, that Pappajohn himself wasn't willing to be a low rate "backstop" lender, to fund the purchase of the centers. It's not like it would break him.

  • Reply to


    by keyes_fred Dec 21, 2015 11:37 AM
    longtimefollower longtimefollower Dec 22, 2015 4:24 AM Flag

    Fred, what are you buying right now. IPI, CEQP, TDW, HERO, and CLD are some of my favorites.

  • Reply to

    Becker as CEO

    by smaycs4 Dec 14, 2015 11:13 AM
    longtimefollower longtimefollower Dec 14, 2015 3:35 PM Flag

    He needs a great merchandiser and buyer to get on board. That's their key problem. Rouleau cleaned up operations wonderfully, but there is simply nothing compelling to the shopping experience, from a merchandising perspective. That having been said, i like being vested with becker, snd bought more today.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    longtimefollower strikes again

    by keyes_fred Dec 7, 2015 10:29 AM
    longtimefollower longtimefollower Dec 13, 2015 12:55 AM Flag

    Thanks, Fred. I own 2.5% of the nonaffiliated sham shares.

    I felt confident in the arbitrage opportunity here. Finally something going my way again...along with htch.

  • longtimefollower by longtimefollower Nov 13, 2015 1:53 PM Flag

    I'm buying.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • longtimefollower by longtimefollower Nov 12, 2015 12:38 AM Flag

    "Our production and cost performance are sustainable." And "Claude is a sustainable 70k ounce a year producer."

    This is ALL you need to know to know that Claude remains dramatically undervalued, relative to its expected future free cash flows. The possibility of achieving a 20% increase in mill throughput with a mere $2-3 million in capex (as stated in the conf call), along with the fact that we can drill and explore SO cheaply with our in house drill program.....tells me that if this stock doesn't trade up closer to fair value soon (which is at least $1.25 Canadian in my book), I would put a greater than 50/50 likelihood that someone steps in to buy this company in the next 6 months.

    Do i regret selling, or having to sell, all the shares i did over the last couple years, after having once owned over 5.0% of this company? YES I DO. But i am happy that i still have 10% of my portfolio in it!

    This company's operational performance over the last year has been nothing short of astonishing....ESPECIALLY since the long term picture has gotten so dramatically better...and current production, and costs, are
    NOT a flash in the pan.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Winter Resupply Program Coming Soon

    by lookin_2_score Nov 11, 2015 2:38 PM
    longtimefollower longtimefollower Nov 12, 2015 12:26 AM Flag

    You POS.

  • longtimefollower by longtimefollower Nov 10, 2015 12:32 AM Flag

    75 cents? 50 cents? Or wait for the insiders to buy??

1.25+0.04(+3.31%)Feb 5 4:02 PMEST