Tinkerbell. I'm afraid the quality of your post belie your lack of understand. Yes, Apple is a good company. No, I din't sell mine at $500 or argue that anyone should. What does that have to do with Biolase? Please explain what will cause the stock price of BIOLASE will to rise. You aren't still pitching your disproved sales to price ratio are you?
There is no point in trying to impress with has happened in the past. first because you didn't post your trades extemporaneously and second because I don't think anyone cares. I am more interested on WHY you think the stock is worth $6 and traded down to here now AND you expect it to shoot up to $6 again.
Anyone can try and make a case for Biolase being worth $2 in a buyout. I'm not sure that's true, but it could be debated. $6 next year is hard for me to imagine.
I'm afraid your ""There is no Absolutely NO Liquidity Problem...PERIOD" overstates teh facts. Biolase was in default of their revolver line of credit. The ban renegotiated it, but Biolase has already drawn it out to its full approved limit. The bank put in very tough covenants that makes it very like Biolase will default again, if not in 4Q13 then in 1Q14.
They are also required to float more shares to gain equity. One has to wonder what you use as a basis to justify the $4 PPS you are predicting. That said I do think a buyout is in the cards, but I can't see anyone paying much more than the current price.
" nes has nothing proprietary" I'm afraid you have betrayed you lack of understanding of the business.
Europe was never the market for US LNG. The biggest market for nat gas is US power plants, given the EPA's over regulation of coal fired plants. The second largest potential for US nat gas is surface transportation.
But as I wrote before these future markets are too far away to effect NES.
These long term markets don't matter to NES in the short term. NES has to survive 2014 first.
Shipping record amounts of LNG is very easy since the amount of LNG currently shipped is so very very small. Natural gas markets are very localized now, consisting of areas that can be reached with pipelines. The long term picture means very little to NES, since they have to survive the short term first.
If you are going to bash try and understand the concept before you post. You expose your ignorance lose credibility if you don't.
Technically the $14.50 support level is critical. Dropping below the relatively large volume of stock purchased in the range will be hard to over come and will lead to even more tax loss selling.
Fundamentally I don't see positive news coming out to drive the stock enough to overcome the end of the year tax loss selling. My plan is to sit tight for another week or two and see if a technical support level is put in here. I'll be more comfortable buying at $16 in 2 weeks once a base is put in, then here at $15 without one. Int eh long run, I doubt the company is going bankrupt, but it is possible if they can't get revolver account worked out and they have another major fiscal problem
I'm afraid you are wrong. In almost every case there is a dramatic drop in a publicly traded stock there is a certified class action lawsuit. Judges almost always let these suits continue through discovery.
freddie knows this. He settled a law suit 8 or 9 years ago involving the secondary where Biolase sold a bunch of stock at $18.50/share.
That said, the lawyers are the only ones that will make money on the suit.
The day theaccounting problems came to light he sent out an action alert and then sold out in his charitable trust. That evening he said he didn't know but when accounting problems are int eh air you gotta sell. The only question for the hanger ons is are the accounting issues real?
NES, a stock I have dabbled in (one of my few losers for the year), under went a 1 for 10 reverse split today. I guess we'll see how Tinkerbell's plan works in real life.
I suggested to Tibkerbell she might want to investigate NASDAQ listing requirements. Turns out her 10 for 1 reverse split would leave them with 3.5M shares and NASDAQ only requires .75M for their lowest listing level. The reverse split would also help in that NASDAQ requires a stock price of over $1.
Interesting they have another hedge fund betting buying over 5%. I have to admit it is a better speculation at $1.75 than at +$4.
it is also good for the longs the price hasn't dropped to $1.50 again. I had expected another test there.
The question that needs to be answered is, "What are the near and long term sales and earnings implications of the asset sale?" I don't see all that much left.
Happy days are here. I FINALLY got my shares into my E-Trade account on November 21st. In fairness, I didn't submit the paperwork till the end of September, so it only took 8 weeks. I'd be really bitter if OPK was down 20% instead of up 20% from PBTH's last price.
Fidelity tells me they lost my paper work and I need to send it in again. Perhaps it will a late Christmas present.
I compare this to the Kraft split where my only problem was trying to get Quicken to understand it.
8 million or so shorts covered in the last 15 days of October. That's an interesting number in the stock price fell 20% in that period returning the average of ~32M shorts. Significantly Dr. Frost didn't buy any shares between 10/21 and 10/31. Kinda of the reverse of what i expected.
Dr. Frost owns ~137M shares and there are approximate 38M shorts out as of 10/31 with 408M share outstanding. Yahoo gives the float as 221M which seems a little odd.
Cowbell, you really do have to keep your facts straight.
1. 1Q13 was marginal at best with a larger than normal QOQ drop in revenues signaling freddie moved revenue to 4Q12.
2. 2Q13 was bad at best, horrid at worst. there was a DROP QOQ and the loss was three times that predicted by the analyst.
3. Pretty much all analyst have targets above the current price. The real key is the change.
4. The "trend" in 2011/2012 was false. As I have written many times Schein stopped selling in mid 2009 trying to get out of their deal with Biolase. No salesmen no sales. Any real comparisons should be made to 2008, with a 15% addition to revenue to account for the Schein discount. Comparisons to direct sales force should be made to 2005 or 2006 less the OEM sales.
5. The "20%" correction has be seen in context. It occurred after a 60% "correction." Three weeks ago you claimed to be a buyer at ~$2.25, What was that "correction?"
6. You need to research NASDAQ rules. A reverse split may not be possible if Biolase wants to remain listed.
7. Your "vulnerability" to a lose is not so much a function of the stock price as it is to the fact Biolase is violation of it's loan covenant AGAIN and needs to raise cash AGAIN.
That said, Good luck.
3Q13 was too bad to allow for a short term play. In fact it was so bad I'm giving up on Biolase. I'll check in every now and again and may post if the spirit moves, but I have too many other interesting things to do right now.
As I read the loan agreement one of the covenants was having no more than a $1M loss in 3Q13, ergo they are in violation once again. I was stunned no one brought it up in the cc or Pearson hasn't written about it on Alpha. The over hang will suppress the price till its resolved.
To pick a number I'd guess Biolase is worth $1/share in a buyout. One needs to remember Biolase's OEM sales and physical manufacturing plant and offices are worthless to most buyers.