Mel continues, "You [LFTB] are distorting the truth about your prediction just like everything you post.... Yes you may not have specifically said SELL but you constantly post that EFOI is worthless ,not worth the $4,5,6,7,.............25, 26,27.............."
LFTB: I am forced to disagree. I do not remember posting "EFOI is worthless," Especially since the release of 2Q15 numbers, I have written EFOI's Navy contract gave it value since I first started posting here. One has to examine the context of the posts where I tried to make assumptions to calculate a value for EFOI.
Mel continues, "By the way you have advised me to take profit (or for a better term SELL) at nearly every price point EFOI has hit, there is no reason to specially give you credit for calling as SELL at $26 ..you had to be correct at some point!"
LFTB: I think you'll find i only specifically advised you to sell 2 or 3 times, mainly urging you to diversify and put trailing stops in place to preserve your gains. I have also written the 'Hogs get slaughtered' axiom a few times.
Today OPK is ~$11 and EFOI is ~16. Given the facts as they stand, I have to insist OPK is the better buy today.
Mel writes, "Seems to me LFTB forgot we had a bet when EFOI was at $.6.00 and Opk was at $16...at the time I was calling for EFOI to trade $18-25 ...you claimed OPK would triple faster than EFOI and infant implied it was not even worth the $6 ...you had recently sold the shares of EFOI in the $4.50 range"
LFTB: Although i couldn't find the post to which Mel refers, it sounds about right.
Mel continues, "Since that time EFOI did rise to $30 but OPK stalled at $18 to fall back to $8.00..... Yes EFOI did fall to $10 after a spectacular run but has been on a much better path since ,yes OPK has regained some too ,but clearly EFOI is the stock to own."
LFTB: EFOI did triple first, but one needs to determine why before one can claim, "Clearly, EFOI is the stock to own?" Why did EFOI run to fast and then fall back? Clearly it was the huge boost Navy sales gave them. No one, including Mel, predicted navy sales would increase six fold. 3Q15 should the weakness of the Navy sales. With 1/3 of the fleet already fitted, the existing contracts nearly filled and the physical limits of how many ships can be at port being fitted at a time evident, it is apparent the huge growth spurt from the Navy is over.
This leaves the lower margin commercial sales to make up the growth difference. 3Q15 did not show the sales growth required which much of the profit coming from a correction in tax with holdings.
Now there is OPK. Everything positive about the company remains in place plus some. It had the misfortune to be involved in a merger/buyout deal at the same time the Bio-Phama industry was rotated out of favor. In the past month OPK reported it first quarterly profit since i have been following the stock. OPK, cleraly has the better story today.
No need to explain yourself to the nickle a post boy. He doesn't let teh facts get in the way of his posts.
IcePick writes, [In reference to what my explanation of the checking of teh Long term sentiment disclosure box.] "What It means is your sentiment is "Sell" and you have held it for a "long-term".
LFTB: What it means to me is that in the long term it is not a good investment.
IcePick continues, "It's all mendacity LFTB. Pure mendacity and nothing else. Twist it any way you want, you are bearish on EFOI and apparently have been for a while..."
LFTB: I agree. What really matters is the reasoning behind the predictions
IcePick: "...and To someone who has done their research It doesn't make sense, this is a good pick.
LFTB, Why? Have you considered the following facts:
1. The Navy accounts for over 80% of EFOI's gross sales
2. The margin on Navy sales is huge in comparison to commercial sales
3. Between 25% and 35% of the US Navy war ships have already been fitted with LED tubes.
4. The rate of increase for Navy sales in 3Q15 has dropped from the first two quarters..
5. To date there has been no competition for Navy sales, although this is not certain in the future.
6. There are between 40 and 50 companies selling commercial grade LED tubes, many for less than EFOI.
7. EFOI does not have a national sales network while their larger competitors do
8. EFOI has fitted ~1/3 of the fleet, leading to the two big questions:
A. Can EFOI make the transition to commercial sales against 40 to 50 competitors?
B. If they can, can they do it before the Navy sales dry up or a competitor comes in?
IcePick, what makes you think EFOI can?
Odd, it reads "Sentiment LONG TERM sell." It the sentiment expresses nothing about what one should do tomorrow. If LONG TERM manes tomorrow to you, well..
BTW it worst my explanation is honest disagreement about the meaning of a phrase. Since Webster's dictionary agrees with my interpenetration it can't be a "prevarication of what it means."
i think my position is extremely clear, it is the drones that opt to constantly lie about them. What choice do I have except to call them the liars they are?
The history (so far) is well represented. Except the sell part. The only time I advised you specifically to sell was after you posted OPK was ~80% of your entire portfolio. I did post a technical sale on the company in August and I was right on that call, so...I also shorted the stock twice for a $3 gain. I'm sure the nickle a post boy can find the actual records
I'm afraid your conclusion "...clearly EFOI is the stock to own." is unsupported.
EFOI increased its earnings almost 40% and the stock price fell. Why? I think it was because of the weak commercial sector growth. IMHO, the market sees the Navy buy slowing and ending and not being replaced with commercial sales.
OPK, on the other hand, has a number of positive news items out:
It just turned in it first positive earnings since I have been following them, which separated the company from the general Bio-pharma decline which trapped OPK last summer. OPK has even more good news:
The Bio-Reference Laboratories merger out of the way and contributed postive earning to the company
Their 4Kscore test has been recommended for use by the National Comprehensive Cancer Network and has been assigned an insurance reimbursement code. Once insurance companies get on board it will supplant the highly inaccurate PSA test.
A $S110M milestone payment should be coming next quarter from Tesaro after receiving FDA approval for Varubi last quarter. Royalty checks will be coming soon too.
OPKO should receive approval for Rayaldee, their drug for vitamin D insufficiency, critical for patients with chronic kidney disease.
Pfizer going to Phase three with hGH-CTP. They just paid OPK a milestone payment last quarter.
OPK continues to have positive cash flow and now has $212M in cash and equivalents. More than enough to finance the company bulging pipe line of drugs.
Finally there is the constant, Dr. Frost. He continues to buy OPK stock on the open market, as the largest CEO buyer of their own companies stock
The nickle a post boy obviously has no concept of the truth. It isn't possible for him to have "caught me in a lie" since I do not lie.
He continues to argue that by checking the long term sentiment box as call to sell. The bigger questions, "what does it matter?"
What does matter is the reason for my long term sentiment which the nickle a post boy is incapable of refuting. They were true 14 months ago and they remain true today.
Does the nickle a post boy pretend to have a position in the company?
With the Bio-Reference Laboratories merger out of the way,
4Kscore test being recommended for use by the National Comprehensive Cancer Network,
Tesaro next payment of $110 million of milestone payments coming (with ongoing royalty checks)
Pfizer going to Phase three with hGH-CTP, after last quarters progress payment,
A N D they increase their cash on hand to $212M
Could there be another acquisition in the works?
OPK got slaughtered in the face of a merger increasing the share count just as the bio-pharma sector has rotated in fear of a Hillary election.
Calmer heads have prevailed and the positive earnings and excellent future prospects have run the stock up to resistance established when the merger was announced 3 months ago.
Nickle a post boy LIES.
I have only written two "Sell calls" and both were correct. Why doesn't he mention the sell call at $26? My first OPK buy call was at $6.75. My most recent one was at $8.75.
Since the nickle a post boy actually knows my record, why does he continue to lie about it?
Given there are 40 to 50 competitors in the commercial market and the minimal cost of out fitting a manufacturing facility in the US if they had to, I doubt the Buy America requirement will eliminate many of EFOI's competitors.
Check out Sylvannia lighting's website. They have a buy-america-brochure touting their government product sales capabilities.
Sylvannia is manufacturing a 'ULTRA HE™ LED T8 Retrofit' Tubes which they claim meet Buy America requirements. In fact they have an initiative they started two years ago to respond to Obama's memorandum directing federal agencies to make energy efficiency upgrades. Not sure how long they have been manufacturing a direct replacement LED T8 Tube. They also have a ton of down light LED replacements which are dimmable.
One can read all about it on their web site.
I loved OPK at $6 19 months ago, and really loved it a month ago at $8.50. OPK board is dominated by nickle a post boys who contribute nothing and like drown out intelligent discussion,
Since you brought it up, OPK is up up 30% off its near term lows, after posting a profit for 3Q15, It is still well short of its highs so you have time to act.
I can't imagine how you can have nearly 100% of your portfolio in a single stock. I had violated my rules about having more than 10% of my portfolio in a single stock, buying when the MACD crossed in early October. I have promised myself I'd lower it back to 10% again once it crosses to the down side, but it has been on a 6 week run, making me happy, but more and more anxious.
As they say, it is a high quality problem to have.
Setting up a long arrow formation right at the 50 and 100 day moving averages and just below resistance around $16. A priced to perfection chart. if really good news comes, the stock will jump up above resistance, bad news and it will drop to support. Usually don't see much either way around the holidays.
BTW, GoPro is a stock waiting for its bubble to burst, IMHO