Be realistic, you think that if a CEO comes out in a media to cheerlead his company is going to remove his company from the overall drag from market forces?
So how well did Skyworks do?? Tell me...how well did they do the next day, after appearing on air? They are down too just like Cirrus....it's an OVERALL market downfall. Did the CEO appearing on Cramer work out for them??? Tell me. Yes or no?
Jason has already mentioned good future and growth in their shareholders's letter and during the CC. He already mentioned in the CC that little will affect how much they sell to China.
So what else do you want him to say? He said all that he needed to say in the CC. Things will go well. The problem is that the Cirrus is being lumped with every one else. That's typical. Not every investor has the "granularity" of insight into the very specifics of Cirrus business that we have. That's why we get lumped....and often stocks are traded by "aggregated" industries.....by sector, by industry, etc.
Get a hold of yourself Al....it'll be OK. Jason will talk about the business again in the next CC.
Al, the earnings reports will speak for Cirrus. To get on air with Cramer is just rife with pitfalls. Jason has no idea what Cramer will bring up. Short term, being on Cramer's show may have a short term pop (or if Cramer screws you, it torpedoes you), but long term, metrics from the earnings reports is what will really matter. Sales, earnings....margins....future guidance, future opportunities, etc. That's what is going to matter.
Grade and MK, how likely is it that Cirrus is in 50% of all phones in 3 years? What percentage is Cirrus in now?
Grade, so you think Cirrus is $5 B company (revenue) in 3-5 years? Let's do some math.
$5,000 M x 0.45 (gross margin) = $2,250M
2250 - 550 (expenses) = 1700
1700 x 0.72 = 1,224
1,224 / 60M shares = $20.4/share in earnings.
1) $20 x 15 PE = $300/share
2) $20 x 20 PE = $400/share
3) $20 x 25 PE = $500/share
Many of us here should be able to retire if these 3 scenarios come to pass. LOL. A gazillion things can change from now till 3-4 years....but we longs can hope.
At currently $29 and change, were are at a level that many on this board thought the stock would have been back in late December of 2013. We have now confirmed a theme. Whether it's Grade or you, or me, or any other long poster....we always are waaaay toooo optimistic about Cirrus price projections. Remember how many times in the last 2-3 years Grade thought that Cirrus was soon to hit $60 ??? It never happened. Hate to be realistic. But there it is......we longs are almost always way too optimistic. Sounds like Mold talking about cirrus not going over $35 this year is correct....who would have thought??? I thought he was just mouthing off......now, it just may very well be true.
Well MK, are you still sticking to the $40 by Aug/Sept prediction? LOL. Hec, I had expected Cirrus to have passed $40 by June/July timeframe. Now, my original thoughts of $60-$70 by March 2016 seem almost impossible now. Remember 18 months ago when everyone on this board thought $30 by X-mas 2013 because of the China Mobile deal? It took another 15 months for that to actually materialize. Could Cirrus still be stuck in the $30-40 range for another 6-8 months?? That would certainly be very disheartening.
You're bored with my "lectures"?? Have you thought how many people on this great board completely detest your juvenile, ongoing spitting contest with Mold? It doesn't relate anything real with numbers with Cirrus...it's nothing BUT YOUR PERSONAL ANIMOSITY with Mold. Good grief. You splatter this sand throwing and childish fight almost every day. This board is virtually spot free except for the occasional shorts like "Austin Heat Wave" and mold....But to take it further, you're a long, but feel the need to engage in personal battle. Get over it. Ignore Mold. Quit butting heads. Show some acumen and restraint. I know you are a smart guy, but please and show it. You seem to want to engage in battles.....back off. Slow down Norm.
Norm, why are you so concerned about Mold? The more you respond to him, the more he responds. And the more the board gets cluttered with personal fighting between you and Mold., which no one really cares about. Let it be. Ignore him. We want real information about Cirrus, posts from MK...Grade....real info about Cirrus new customers, revenue projections etc. That's what the board wants, needs and is great for. Your bickering back and forth with Mold is so distracting from all this good info that many posters put forth. Let it go. Ignore Mold. No one seems to really care about his posts except you. My God, stop this juvenile spitting contest. It does the board no good.
Hannibal, there is no strategic reason why Apple would buy Cirrus. Apple primary designs computers, iPhones, iPods, iPads, etc, and have thousands of suppliers fill the tiny components needed to build their products. Cirrus simply provides the audio codecs that's only one piece out of hundreds or thousands of components that make up the iPhone. Why get into the business of building tiny audio chips when they got plenty of suppliers to do that job? Remember what Steve Jobs philosophy...design only a few products, but make them insanely good. Designing audio components would be the farthest thing from that. That would be a distraction from their main mission. And what if the future iPhone 9 requires the expertise of some other audio supplier? What then? Now they got a audio chip division that doesn't contribute to their product and is there as dead weight..
Rusty, don't forget that Cirrus' GAAP PE vs its non-GAAP PE is very different. Cirrus' GAAP PE is actually around 30. Skyworks GAAP and non-GAAP is not that far apart. That's why they have a higher non-GAAP PE vs Cirrus. I made a lengthy post about this several days ago. Click on my username and scroll back a few posts.
I agree with what you stated. But this happens across the entire stock market to most stocks. Shorts see attractive opportunities and ZERO IN to certain stocks. Sometimes it's Cirrus, sometimes, its Quorvo, sometimes it's Skyworks, sometimes it is some other smaller company. This HAPPENS all the time. Even sometimes to large companies. There is nothing special about Cirrus that may attract manipulation than any other company with the same characteristics. This is what the market is about. There are those who go long, there are some who go short.....Cirrus with its smaller cap may fall prey to smaller swings. OK, but it's not a "conspiracy" to get at Cirrus. It's nothing more than the normal waning and waxing of the market.....it's nothing more than a business course 101....the swings back and forth of supply and demand....my point is that many on this board have it in their mind that "some people" are out to "get Cirrus". Like its some nefarious plot to "get Cirrus" to keep it low. No, it's market forces...whether long or short,......people are just out to make money off a stocks. People, it's the market place. It's Wall Street.
There is no manipulation of Cirrus to the degree that other stocks in the semi sector may not be. Cirrus goes up and down, just as Apple, Quorvo, Skyworks, Qualcomm and others do. Okay? All stocks often at times seem underpriced. This happens to all stocks....its just some random fluctuations of the stock market....all individual stocks have their own strange fluctuations. It does NOT mean that Cirrus is somehow "TARGETTED" to be taken lower. You'd think by that logic, that it'd be targeted to be TAKEN MUCH HIGHER as well......of course, if it were, then you'd say, hey, Cirrus is rising on it own. This is the market. It is what it is....this conspiracy-minded approach is lacking.
I just want to come out and say how much I appreciate this board and its readers and posters. I read it almost everyday when I have time. I have been on other stock message boards here on Yahoo, and it's like the Wild Wild West. Tons of really wild, erratic, and nonsensical postings. I particular spent time on the AOL board back in the late 1990's before the Time Warner merger, and that was the last semblance of rationality. Since then, everything is crazy.....except this board. Have you read the Apple board here on Yahoo?.....my god, it's a big mess....some great stuff, but overwhelmed by 80% nonsense. Sure there's the occasional shorts that bomb this Cirrus board, but there is so much great contribution from so many people here. Even those of you who contribute occasionally, you are greatly appreciated as well. Keep it up. Let's hope for an extraordinary rise in Cirrus over the next 12-24 months. Thanks for all of your contributions. And let's keep this board a great thing.
This is what was stated in the letter:
"We are particularly excited to be ramping a smart codec over the next two quarters in another top Android smartphone OEM."
So it can't be Samsung, because we already have some portion of their business. By using the word "another" that would mean SAM isn't it. And by using "smartphone", it probably doesn't mean a win in tablets. It sounds like another win in the phone space with a big name. I guess it can't be Microsoft since they aren't Android. So maybe Sony?
Grade, here are the top 10 smartphone manufacturers by volume in 1st quarter 2015
1) Samsung 83M
2) Apple 62M
3) Lenovo (includes Motorola) 19M
4) Huawei 18M
5) LG 15M
6) Xiaomi 15M
7) ZTE 13M
8) CoolPad/Yulong 12M
9) TCL/Alcatel 10M
10) Vivo 9M
Who is Cirrus missing on this list? In the conference call, Jason mentioned it was major, tier 1 phone mfg. But when pressed him on the definition of "major customer", is that defined by "volume" of sales, Jason declined to answer. Could it be someone like Sony or Microsoft, who both are not in the top 10?
thanks. As always, thanks for all your contributions to this board.
Thanks MK.....question for you. Where do you get the quarterly estimates that extend well into FY2017?? Yahoo only has the yearly estimate for FY17. Thanks in advance.
In a report published Thursday, Stifel analyst Tore Svanberg upgraded the rating on Cirrus Logic, Inc.rom Hold to Buy, with a price target of $45. With the stock still 13 percent below its 52-week high, the analyst believes that investors have an opportunity to build their positions in "one of the fastest growing small-cap semiconductor growth stories." (continue)
The company posted a strong beat and raise quarter for Q2. Cirrus Logic has been able to achieve market expansion via organic growth, as well as the strategic Wolfson acquisition in 2014. This, the analyst believes, has in turn propelled the company's revenue to new highs.
"Cirrus is entering a significant product cycle over the next 12-24 months," Svanberg stated, while adding that despite not introducing any meaningful products last year, the company was able to grow its full year revenues by 28 percent.
Another positive in favor of Cirrus Logic is that although Apple Inc.accounted for a very high percentage of its revenue, the Wolfson deal has reduced Apple's contribution to 62 percent, with clear signs of Cirrus Logic "gaining traction across the Android platform with other top-tier OEMs," according to the Stifel report.
In addition, the company is migrating to the newer 55nm technology node, which the analyst believes would offer cost advantages and better scale with suppliers.Analyst Svanberg does not believe that "CRUS should trade at such a discount especially considering it is outgrowing its peers by a wide margin."