Last year, once Cirrus cross the $30 line early in 2015, many here were optimistic about price targets. I said that Cirrus would easily cross $40 by July/August timeframe, as did Grade and a few others. MK was much more cautious (as he always is), and said August/Sept would be the time Cirrus crosses $40 once the contents in iPhone 6 were announced. None of that transpired. Even the very, very conservative MK was way ahead.
So what is the thought now?? Does Cirrus actually cross the $40 mark anytime in 2016?? I say yes, despite always being wrong in the past. Wrong again and again. Always too optimistic.
So what is your take.....what is the highest point in price will Cirrus be in anytime in 2016 up until Dec 31, 2016?? Does anyone want to venture a guess?
Grade, I don't think you're unreadable. There are two writing styles in you. Often, you seem to take time to write something out....fully well-written, grammatical, no missing words..... Then there are times, I think maybe you're in a hurry or at work (and don't want to waste time), you put something out that's very quick. And often these very quick posts are often what you do. But when you take the time to write something out, you are a very good writer and express youself very well.
Al, let's be honest here. You've been just about the biggest crier on this board just like anyone else. My God, how often have you cried about Apple being mistreated?? I do too. I'll admit that. But you just ramble on this board....seriously. I often do pay "homage" to you because of your age. And I'm sure many others don't come down on you because of your age. Many will focus on some issue....and you respond by not focusing on the issue at hand....you just ramble about other issues at hand. That's fine. I wish I could have it together like you when I'm in my 80's.
Oh boy, you really like to ramble in your responses. Bottom line, they are selling rather than buying......explain that to me, if one expects thing to be getting better.
So Al, are you saying this rule caused insiders to sell HALF of the existing shares but not buy a single one in the last 6 months? Those 300,000-plus shares total well over $10 million dollars.
Grade, I'm not very clear on options. You can exercise an option without selling it right? In other words, you exercise the option, and IRS treats it like you've been given compensation and must pay taxes on it for that year. But that doesn't necessarily mean you sold the shares, right? There's no "expiration date" on shares you hold once the option has been exercised, correct?
Steve, but let's be fair here. They did end FY16 with a 27% revenue growth, despite the large, unexpected drop at Apple at the end of December. However, the stock price didn't do much. The market just shrugged its shoulders. But the thing is that the market anticipates. It has an uncanny ability to price stock well ahead of its actual rise and fall in earnings. "The Collective Wisdom" of market, like they say. That run from $16-17 to the $30's long before the end of the year was the Market pricing all that in. At this point, if it weren't for the much lowered expectations from Apple in recent months (instead of growing say 15-25%/year), Cirrus would very likely be trading in the $40's, and dare I say possibly in the $50's. Yes, as a longtime shareholder (a substantial one), I am very frustrated as well. But in the recent last couple of years, Cirrus has done very well,, given the strong headwinds. Given their diversification and relying less on Apple, hopefully, Cirrus will finally turn the corner. I expect them to grow revenues in FY2017 of about 30% or higher. When asked in CC, Jason Rhode didn't want to specify.
I keep close tabs on Cirrus financial metrics, but I've never looked into "insider sales" on a regular basis. But if Yahoo is accurate, this is somewhat alarming. Here's what Yahoo says about insider sales for Cirrus.
Insiders over the last 6 months:
Purchases: 0 Shares, 0 Transactions
Sales: 363,679 Shares, 20 Transactions
Total Insiders Shares Held: 368,630 Shares
Net Shares Purchased (Sold): -49.8%
Do you guys see this? Maybe I'm misunderstanding the data. Over the last 6 months, insiders have sold 1/2 of their shares collectively. Can this be right? Anyone else with another view on this? If we can get data going further back in time, it would seems like we can do correlation analysis to determine whether purchases and sales correlate with the rise and fall in the stock price.
OK, fine "potential"....for $1.7 Billion. But what do you really expect? Give the your expected number.
MK, what is your expectation?? Do you think Cirrus can really pull in $1.7B in revenues for FY17??
Sentiment: Strong Buy
Grade, so what you're saying is that Cirrus came in at $1.17 Billion in revenues for FY16, which just passed. And in FY17, Cirrus will come in at roughly $1.7 Billion, a jump of over 40% in revenues YOY, despite the Apple headwinds...yes, I do realize there has been an upward revision....these revisions simply come and go. And earnings will fall in the plus $4.50 /share range pro forma?? But yet, you say it's "weaker"?? I would say that $1.7 Billion in revenues would be a BRILLIANT year for Cirrus in FY17. You often leave me in twisted knots with what you say. LOL
MK, I wouldn't think so. Grade can answer, but $450-525 M over FY 16 revenue would mean about $1.7 billion in revenue for FY 17. That's easily over $4.5/share in pro forma earnings, assuming about 0.47 gross margin, $380M in costs (R&D and SG&A), 28 percent in taxes and 64 million in outstanding shares.
Hey Doug! It's been a pretty mild spring....a bit colder than usual. And it's almost June! Take care. Hope your plants are doing OK.
Hi BigCrusFan.....I do remember you. Welcome back. It's been a long time since I've seen you post here.
Nelonline, how much longer do the stockholders wait?? Cirrus was in the $40's back in 2012. Cirrus has never reached back to that level in 4 years!! Yeah , we wait for second half of 2016. We stockholders did the same thing back in 2015......nothing happened when everyone thought Cirrus would shoot through the roof....did it happen, NO!! We were stucked in the $30's. Will the same thing happen again in 2016....I think MAYBE....Apple is dying again.....maybe Cirrus lingers in the $30's for another year!! How would that take you people? That would really, really upset me.....how long does this "water treading" go on? Does Cirrus ever go higher?? Seriously?? Remember, Cirrus was at $60 back in 1995/96. Never have come close in almost 20 years.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
Ok, I know I'm going to get slammed for this, but this is one of those "negative" posts I do from time to time. So OK....hold on to your seats. Cirrus is now trading around $32. You do realize that Cirrus crossed $32 about 13 months ago....yes, despite all this "GROWTH" from Cirrus and all the great "forecasts", the stock basically has gone nowhere for over 1 year. And even worse, the stock was trading at $45 BACK IN 2012....much higher. Go back to 2000, it was trading at $46. Go back to around 1995/96, it was trading around $60!! Take in the inflation factor over the years, it would have been even higher!! Yes, much of this can be blamed on Apple. But still......Cirrus has gone nowhere in years and years and years.....darn, why did I not drop my money in Skyworks or Netflix?? I'd be a millionaire today!! Sorry had to complain. So do Cirrus hang on the $30's for another 3-4 years?? Or does it rise higher??
Imagine if Apple sales were still expected to grow 15-20% annually, Cirrus would probably be trading in the $40's-50's by now. Sigh.