We broke the $38 barrier. $40 shouldn't be too far away. Going to a beach party for 2 days. I'll drink a couple for all longs here. Have a nice Memorial Day weekend!
Cirrus has gone up about 123% since the lows late last year. Pretty dramatic run. Much more to come hopefully.
Al, this looks like overall market action. No news specific to cirrus. All the major semis in mobile space and Apple are experiencing a small pop.
Well, so far, I guess I'm the "baby" of the board. LOL. Almost mid-40's. I know it's a cliche to say, but I can't believe how quickly time has flown by. I was only in my 20's when I loaded up on Cirrus in the late 1990's. High school seemed to take forever. College years and my 20's were a bit quicker. My 30's flew by in a blink of the eye. So far, my 40's is even faster. I honestly wake up sometimes and in first few seconds don't believe I'm in my 40's. It has just been way too quick. Unbelievable. At this rate, I'll blink my eyes a couple of times, and I'll be 70 years old. I've enjoyed my time with all of you here. Good info and nice comraderie. And now, if I can just retire very early with Cirrus. LOL. Take care my friends.
Just wondering, I've noticed many of the posters here on the Cirrus board are in the 60's or older (noticed through various conversations). Is there anybody on this board in their 40's or younger? Just curious.
Thanks MK. Sorry I got a bit confused. When I saw you list the same margins, I assumed it meant that the 55nm chips would be no more profitable than the older chips. Of course, what I forgot was that 46-48% are gross margin PERCENTAGES, not absolute numbers. So even with the same gross margin percentages, they're the same percentage of a larger number, it means larger profits. And the reason they have the same percentages despite having a higher ASP is that the COGS is higher too.
MK, have you thought about what you wrote? So with 55 nm, that's the new Cirrus technology.
And you say higher ASP with these new 55 nm chips (average selling price), BUT THE MARGINS are the same, in the mid 40's. How so? Ok, we need an explanation for that. How does that happen?
Hi Doug. Things are looking good for cirrus. So you sold skyworks? Sorry to hear that. I wish that I had bought them too. I too went to Mexico (Can Cun) for my 30th birthday. Great times. Would never go to Mexico these days. Too dangerous with all the drug trafficking. Have a great day. Looks like Cirrus is kicking butt again today!
Sentiment: Strong Buy
MK, yes Skyworks is set up really nicely for the future of The Internet of Things. They got their hands in far more areas than Cirrus. A good consolation is that Skyworks already has about a $20 billion market cap. Whereas Cirrus is only $2 billion and change. Much more room to grow for Cirrus. But you never know, sky works could be the Intel, Microsoft or Apple and run their cap well over $100-200 billion someday. But Cirrus can 10fold its stock and still sport only a $20 billion cap.
Very decent price action this morning ! Maybe I will be a convert to the Max pain theory. LOL
Don't get me wrong. Like grade, I think cirrus will eventually shoot over $100. It's got legs this time, unlike in the past when it shoots up briefly then goes back down. My point was that at this point, we need more unveiling of wins, additional confirmation of guidance, etc. to further push this stock up. Even something like new projections of huge apple sales in China can move the price along.
Jason's sale has almost nothing to do with cirrus price IMHO. He still has an enormous amount of options. He has to diversify. You don't hold all your eggs in one basket. It applies to not only us but to Jason as well. He has to sell at some point when the stock shoots up. It'd be crazy to continue to hang on.
This is all fine and dandy. And I think meeting with the analysts is a very good thing. But we all know all this. There is no new news here. The entire investment community know about Cirrus' success. That's why it has jumped 100% in the last 4-5 months. The question is what is the new catalyst for the next move up. Yes. Everyone already knows Cirrus is increasing content going forward. Moving to the Android space. Moving to the mid tier space. Moving beyond Apple and Samsung to players 3-10.
This is all big stuff for certain. But again. Already expected and known. I'd say 80-90% built into stock price. What's going to be new to move the stock. Confirmation of projections helps. But it in no way replaces new wins and a jump in revenues.
That's what the market is looking for a new jump in stock again. Sure Cirrus has been successful. But ALL that had been built into stock price.
Bottom line. What's new?
So Friday's op ex has passed now. That supposedly was holding down cirrus to $36. So on Monday Cirrus should start running up right? We're putting this theory to the test. I honestly don't see that happening. But I'd be the happiest person to be proven wrong.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
Doug, I agree with you on Cirrus prospects. It's going much higher this year and into the next. Nothing's changed about that. I was just questioning whether the whole max pain notion is valid or not. Like I said, I've about the mechanics of how it works....just wondering whether in practice, it really works out the way it's claimed.
Doug, I visited a couple of sites when we last talked about Max Pain Theory. Remember when you said you emailed your nephew? I spent a good hour or so running through the websites that explain the theory. I even went through the detailed calculations from the options tables they provided. I believe I understand it relatively well. Also, from what I read, the evidence is actually pretty slim for it. If Cirrus is truly being artificially held down to $36 (or whatever the max pain price is), then the expectation would be that Cirrus should pop next week, right? Once the downward pressure is released by the option writers? Then if that's the expectation, then where's all the buying volume while Cirrus is being held artificially low? This would be the classic definition of a market inefficiency, whereby a stock is mispriced (lower in this case). If so, and the theory is valid, we on this Cirrus board obviously can't be the only ones that know about this. Where are all quant Ph.D hedge funds and other sophisticated traders of stock to take advantage of this incredible buying opportunity while it lasts? There's no volume to speak of. There isn't really any buying at all. It just continues to drift lower on very low volume. This is hardly a sign that Cirrus is poised to "pop" next week. Then to take it further, what's the next max pain point at the next op ex? Is that going to hold Cirrus down next week too? And the next, the next, etc.
It's both. Events are planned and some occur accidentally (randomly). To what degree of each? Well, it depends on what the subject and issue is.
yhavocm, where do you get the $36 number? Did you calculate that from the options tables? Or is there a site to look that up? A couple of weeks ago, I thought the number was $34.5? Now it's $36? If so, what's to keep it from changing again to $37 or $38 by tomorrow?