How sure are you that Apple will release a bunch of new products? If so, why did Jason say flat to moderate growth in revenue this year in the last CC? Is he diminishing expectations? If so, he surely didn't have any problems pre-announcing last year at this time that big revenues were coming in the fall 2012. If this is the case again because Apple is launching a lot of products, why is he not forthright about it?
That's strange. I, too, sometimes can't see MK's responses even though it says he has posted.
There is a big difference between Netflix and Cirrus. Netflix is beating estimates every quarter by 200-300%. and they are projected to grow by 3 fold over the next year. That's why they are commanding such a ridiculously high PE ratio. Where is Cirrus? Cirrus had that amazing jump in earnings in last September and December quarters. Now what? They are forecasted to DECLINE in earnings this year over last. And the yahoo estimates have them even lower in 2015 compared to 2014. Whether this turns out to be true remains to be seen. Maybe Cirrus surprises later this year. But for now they not expected to grow much. Netflix is a totally different case.
MK, when do you see Apple signing a deal with China Mobile? Is it too difficult to estimate at this time?
Extreme prof, by their very mathematical nature, future cash flows are discounted more the farther out they go. Add to it the uncertainty of farther out cash flows, they are almost meaningless to the discounting process.
Tavis, we will agree to disagree. Peace pipe LOL . I can't argue too much because of my heart condition and high BP. As a long, I still really appreciate your contributions to the board, along with others like Grade zero and MK. Here's to a much higher Cirrus price 12 months from now.. Take care Tavis.
Tavis I think the difference between your and my approach is that you feel that you think the Cirrus roadmap for the next 6-12 months is known....or relatively well known. And to that end, you think all these gyrations in the stock price are nothing but technicals and " inefficiencies" in the market pricing mechanism. I take a more fundamentals approach. I think the price dive since last November was driven MOSTLY by changes in earnings/revenues expectations. Late last year, it became readily apparent Apple was severely slowing for the foreseeable future. And since Cirrus was 90% Apple, it only stands to reason that Cirrus slows as well, short of demonstrable expansion of revenues into other customers. Guess what? That didn't happen. That's why Cirrus price dropped like a rock after the CC in November. It was priced for high growth. 35 PE at the time. So for next few months we dropped and kept dropping until there is some sign Cirrus would recover and garner additional revenues from either NEW Apple growth products or additional customers to drive new diversification for growth. It's been in a wait-n-see mode. Many questions are outstanding. Who is the new tier 1? How much revenue? What new Apple products? How much growth and how much content? LED? What else? These questions we still don't know the answers to. And the answers to these question will VERY MUCH determine Cirrus balance sheets. These are unanswered questions. My suggestion earlier today is that as the answers are slowly revealed privately or publicly over time, they are going to impact stock price. Big or small. And does this information get leaked sometimes to those in the know? Of course. It's naive to think it doesn't. Is it partially leaks and partially technicals? That certainly possible too? But to think the very heavy volume was not PARTIALLY new information driven is wrong IMO.
Tabis what you wrote is a bunch of hand waving. Do you have specifics? Just who is this tier 1 company? How much will it contribute to Cirrus revenue? What new products from Apple? What's the growth numbers? Does Apple sign with China Mobile? When? This fall? Or maybe in mid 2014? How fast does Cirrus ramp up LED this year(Jason did not provide numbers in CC)? Or will it disappoint again this year and we have to wait till 2014 for more substantial revenue. ALL of these matters will determine Ciruus revenue and bottom line. And tavis, your telling us you KNOW ALL of this with specificity??
Tavis, you got to discount for uncertainty. Yeah you may believe Cirrus will be in a new tier 1 or maybe a new lower priced Apple iPhone. The market doesn't bull rush into a stock because of rumors or other possibilities. The market commits based on the degree to which something is certain or probable. Maybe what moved the stock today is that someone big found out who the new tier1 is? Without that knowledge sort of hard to just jump in not knowing who it is ....because the. You can make more solid revenue guesses based on name. Or maybe someone has more certainty about cheaper iPhones. Maybe someone has news on china mobile. Yeah you say we all already "know this". But so far we cirrus longs are just cheerleading and hoping and thinking we know for certain. We don't know for certain and "to what extent".
Tavis,, you're joking right? The general market, Apple and it's suppliers are all trading a bit down to flat. Cirrus is up over 6% with 2.5 million shares (almost daily average) in just the first two hours.....and you think that is surge is a non-news driven event.? Very very unlikely.
Cirrus is up on heavy morning volume even with Apple and general market a bit down. Whats the news? Anyone know. It's times like this that shows you that it's the big boys that have access to inside information.
Last fall, many here apparently overestimated the price this spring. Many believed we were headed towards $50-60 by now. So did I. I have a feeling that now that expectations have been diminished greatly (including the price targets of the analysts), the price movement will really surprise to the upside I the coming months.
Scpaks, your daily complaints aren't going to move the stock price. Until cirrus shows that they are going increase revenues through new apple products or through LED or other tier 1 customers cirrus will just float around at these levels. Thats probably going to be a few months away. Getting excited or disappointed over 50 cent rises or drops is not meaningful.
It's not the reliance on Apple that's causing the low valuation. Remember that even with the heavy tie to Apple last November Cirrus was trading at $45 with a pe of 35. It's the heavy reliance on Apple and the perception (real or not) of Apples slowing growth. Future growth rate (not past growth) is what primarily drives the pe ratio. Past growth rate simply gives you the current earnings. Until Cirrus can show future growth through Apple or diversification it's going to continue to get the pe it has.
Tavis I was the one who said that. I listened to the cc and at one point I thought I heard "flattish" by jason about 2014 growth. Now I may have misheard (I was in a noisy environment). But I definitely heard Jason characterize 2014 as much more moderate (compared to 2013). Maybe someone else can clarify who listened whether he used the word flat or flattish in terms of revenue growth.
So how is it that this will be a flattish, moderate year, fy 2014? What happened to the greater volume of sales from Apple from cheaper phones in Asia in the second half? What about LED's - wasn't this supposed to be the year for the ramp up?? What about other customers in the audio space?? With all this, this year is supposed to be flat and moderate in terms of revenue growth? How is this possible?
Hec it's obscene now to have a pe of 6 now. But there it is. When in the 40's with a pe of over 30, I would have believed a pe of 6 from cirrus 6 months later only if there was a nuclear war.
After the all the guidance and recent Apple news, what are you all expecting for earning fy 2014? I recall grade and Tavis projecting $5 /share plus. Does anyone still think we can achieve that?
Mk I didn't listen to the apple cc yesterday. Could there still be upside from apple in the Fall this year?