Ok so the confirmation (at least by WSJ) is here. How do you predict the stock will trade tomorrow? I say it rises less than $1. I hope I am wrong but I've just turned so cynical by this stock. That "big pop" from the announcement of China Mobile isn't coming. $1 pop.
grade, you are writing in cryptic code again....I bet very few people understood what you wrote....please, write out fully what you mean so that the average Joe can understand you. What the hec is GAPP costs plus plus plus?? That is just plain poor English.
It would take something really big, like a big customer win...say like a Samsung, for Cirrus to jump to $25 by X-mas. Or totally unexpected blowout Apple sales numbers....The China Mobile announcement alone won't do it.
I say Cirrus experiences a small 4-5% pop (a rise of about $1 or a bit less) on the announcement. The announcement has long been anticipated, so when it happens, it won't be a major surprise. Now, later on, if China Mobile does in fact bring in many more users of Apple in the weeks and months afterwards, then the secondary rise in Cirrus in stock will occur. But at this point, that second portion is a wait and see.
So what happened to the announcement? People were pegging it for Nov 9-11. Okay it's now Nov 21. So what happened ? And when is it next expected.....why the delay?
Last October 2012, when Cirrus was flying high in the $30-40 range, just about every one on this board (including me) thought Cirrus was on the way to $60 and beyond.....what happened, in the subsequent months, it plunged to $16-17....and just when it looked like it would continue lower, it snapped back to lower $20's. And in recent weeks, it slowly climbed to $25....ah yes, predictions on this board said, Cirrus goes to $30 by years end (MK and I believed that)....does that look likely now, as we dip again into the upper teens after the lost amp and Barclay? And Mold even predicted $27 for the day after the last earnings release....what happened? It went down. It's wild, it's unpredictable. Just when you think you have it pegged, some big surprise happens (positive or negative), and all hec breaks loose. I just gave a couple of examples big from last year and the more recent predictions.....there's a long, long, long trail of missed calls.
Trying to predict the movement of this stock is virtually impossible....short, medium or long term. I have been here on this board for years, and have seen people crash and burn with their endless price predictions.
MK, but do you really believe these 3-4 year long projections by Case? They need to provide "tighter" schedule of expectations....like in the next 12-18 months, so they can be held to the fire. Remember the infamous statement by Jason...that this year (FY14) would be "the year of the revenue.." He stated this not more than 12 months ago......and what happened? He sold off how many shares? And revenues are basically flat year over year.
That's the problem with Cirrus.They are very mute when it comes to potential wins with LED and other audio customers. I wish Jason would state what they expect in the coming year with some numbers. About a year or two ago, Jason was very enthusiastic in the CC and the Investor Letter about all the new products (audio) and LED customers they were working on. They even estimated 10-15 million LED customers about 18 months ago. However, in the last 4 qtrs.....nothing. The enthusiasm in their voices are gone. LED used to be a "fantastic opportunity for Cirrus", they used to say........now, in the last two quarters, Jason says the market is "an inch deep, but a mile wide", suggesting it's tough since you got to win the bulb market, SKU by SKU, rather than just a summarily win customer by customer. It's like......what the hec happened??
Thanks for your close watch, MK. Amazingly, this news of the chip broke around 10 AM EST. And right afterwards, the stock jumps from being slightly in the red, to plus +0.30 over yesterdays closing price. Market reacts very quickly.
There's not point in asking Grade 0 what the stock will be 1 year from now. No one knows. Not even Grade. He has been wrong time and time again....as has so many other people. Too many to list. As smart as Grade is, and as closely and as long as Grade has covered Cirrus (since mid 1990's), he still didn't know to sell back last October when Cirrus was in the 40's. I didn't know either. He has now sold a big chunk in around $20. He could have sold much more in the 40's and 30's. Grade can't give you an accurate answer. No one can. One lesson I learned. No one can predict stock prices well......and well consistently. You may get lucky time to time, but to do it consistently is really virtually impossible. Why? Because the stock market is typically well priced. And predictability is almost impossible. Therefore, in looking forward, you are simply guessing at stock prices as they act in response to random events in the market and around the world. Is there a "time lag" between events and price reaction.....sure, but it's very short, and hedge funds with their algorithms and super computers for trading have all but wiped out these small opportunities.
I'm sorry. That Jason can't talk about the socket loss is suspect. I remember last July or maybe October when Cirrus received the huge jump in revenues from the chips to iPhone 5, an analyst asked about the growth and content of the supplied chips. And he answered the question without a problem. Of course Jason never said iPhone or Apple but it was clear he was addressing the huge jump in chips sold for iPhone 5. But then to say he can't talk about when they lose a socket is inconsistent at best. Bottom line is if had mentioned it in the CC he would have sold he 100,000 shares at a lower price.
Mxim has a much larger revenue base than Cirrus...something like 3-4 times bigger (their market cap is like 7 times bigger). Therefore the revenue loss for Cirrus was a bigger deal, than the revenue gain for Mxim. That's why the two stocks reacted disproportionately to the news.
So Grade, what is your plan? We've been through this many times before in the years here. Are you hanging on? Or are you selling? Any bright spots looking forward?
So we're losing the amp in the iPad Air, but the Codec is still there. What sort of revenue loss is this? On a percentage basis per unit?
What difference does it make nelonline? If revenues are going to suffer because of this loss of socket - what does it matter whether insiders sell or not? It's going to materialize anyways, one way or another. Whether the insiders sell or not isn't going change the future revenue stream.
We hear the design cycles are 12-18 months. So Cirrus must have known this socket loss at least one year ago. Would this be true? Yet, they write in their earnings reports that relationship with number 1 customer remains outstanding? This would explain the lack of enthusiasm in their CC in the last 3-4 qtrs.