Clearly Gilead senior management has guided conservatively and the City numbers are conservatively as well, which will setup Gilead for a nice beat. Stock should be a target of 120 now, but eventually will get there and even higher.
" In the eighth week of launch AbbVie’s (ABBV) Viekira Pak posted 220 TRx which are comparatively lower than Sovaldi’s TRx of 2,646 and Harvoni’s 5,302. As Viekira Pak has data reporting restrictions in the mail channel, there is lack of clarity on the reliability of the data."
That is not even funny - AbbVie will drop like a rock
It depends on who you ask. Citigroup’s Yaron Werber notes that sales of Gilead Sciences (GILD) hepatitis-C treatments–Harvoni and Sovaldi–are doing better than he expected but are still below the Street consensus. He explains:
During the week of Feb 13th, Harvoni weekly [total prescriptions, or] TRx increased 5.2% and [new prescriptions, or] NRx increased 11.2%. TRx scrips are 8,832 up from 8,396 and NRx scrips are 4,277 up from 3,876 last week.
Gilead Q1:15 U.S HCV sales are tracking at $2.46B vs. Citi of $2.15B and consensus $2.71B. We assume a 46% gross to net discount and 5% growth in Harvoni TRx every week and 30% gross to net discount and flat TRx for Sovaldi for rest of the quarter. In the eighth week of launch AbbVie’s (ABBV) Viekira Pak posted 220 TRx which are comparatively lower than Sovaldi’s TRx of 2,646 and Harvoni’s 5,302. As Viekira Pak has data reporting restrictions in the mail channel, there is lack of clarity on the reliability of the data.
Shares of Gilead Sciences have dipped 0.2% to $102.55, while AbbVie has gained 3.2% to $60.92 after Jefferies named the company its top pick among pharmaceuticals.
I don't think the bottom could be timed, but I'm looking at an entry point somewhere in the range between 8 and maybe 6. I think there is another leg down to capitulation, then a recovery into spring / summer. Of course I could be completely wrong, too. I then take my money somewhere else.
I sold my large position in SDRL for a loss riding it up to 30, 40 and 50, and down the collapse. I did not expect SDRL to completely cut the dividend and got surprised by it, and ultimately sold then for a loss.
I am looking for a re-entry point but I'm conscientious about the turning point. If Barron's calls for $20 oil that means that it may just touch on that while recovering up to the 30 or 40 ties. I'm looking for a re-entry not before March / April time frame....