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New Residential Investment Corp. Message Board

lorenzonmartino 30 posts  |  Last Activity: Aug 28, 2015 1:29 PM Member since: Apr 26, 2012
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  • Reply to

    What was wrong with August 6th quarter?

    by billberggren Aug 19, 2015 2:33 AM
    lorenzonmartino lorenzonmartino Aug 28, 2015 1:29 PM Flag

    Your lucky. I have most probably a lot more cash invested than you and at a much higher share price around $4.
    Although there is a lot of negativity DXM is in not in any immediate need of cash: not now and probably not through 2016 (see my estimates). In fact , even if we have had two disastrous quarters DXM has probably a much brighter future today than with the prior management and in this sense the lenders should be more willing now to extend the loans than before. I cannot explain why there has been such a loss of confidence and so much sell down by institutes and why management did not take questions at the CC. Yes DXM would look a lot better with $500M less debt. A question could be what happens to the subordinated bonds but really I think this also depends on the company performance. Let's assume DXM makes sub par buy backs only for the subordinated debt each quarter next year for $25M ?? How much debt could they buy and what would be left to re fi end of 2016? Buy sell now I do not have the answer, MAy be n September insiders will leak sales data for new products sold in August and share price rises. I think next quarter will be better and Q4 we will have some kind of break out in company performance, Does equity survive the reorg. ? Don' t know.

  • lorenzonmartino by lorenzonmartino Aug 28, 2015 1:02 PM Flag

    DXM started roll out of new products beginning August. I called Overland Park on 08/21 and apparently about half of 250 sales and marketing agents had been selling DEXLNK and DEX HUB for two weeks. The company has been quiet about the roll out but CEO did acknowledge this in the CC by saying sales of DEXHUB were brisk. Do they want to take their competitors by surprise ? ?

    I checked the YP distribution map of DEXO and SUPERMEDIA products from the merger document of 2012 and these states were not covered by distribution: Alabama, Arkansas, Connecticut, Georgia, Louisiana, Mississippi, Oklahoma, Tennessee. If you look at the vacancies for outside sales agents on their web site there are presently vacancies for Arkansas, Connecticut, Georgia & Tennessee. My be they do want to roll out nation wide ? Ideas ?

    Finally any feed back or comments on my calcs below ? If I am wrong I would like to know..
    As much as the calculation is approximate I think it proves a point: DXM will not run short of cash in 2016 even with modest improvement in sales metrics (in fact cash on had increases).

    Assume -20% print and +5% digital growth (-12.5% total) through out 2016 and DXM will easily meet mandatory repayments and interest.

    I am pretty sure DXM will make mid range revenue forecast for $1500M and mid to high end of EBITDA forecast ($525M).

    $ 1500M 2015 revenue
    -12.5% = $ 1.312.5M difference is $187,5M

    Mid range EBITDA - sales decline
    $ 525M - $ 187.5 = $ 337.5M

    add difference between cost savings 2015 ($110M) and yearly cost savings ($160M)

    $ 337.5M + $ 50M = $387.5M

    Subtract interest payments and mandatory repayments $387.5- $ 240M -$120M = $27.5M on which I will detract 60% for cash sweeps

    $27.5M x .60 = $16.5M

    So assuming that I end 2015 with cash on hand of $210M DXM will still accumulate cash on hand in 2016 ending with the year with $226.5M.

  • Reply to

    What was wrong with August 6th quarter?

    by billberggren Aug 19, 2015 2:33 AM
    lorenzonmartino lorenzonmartino Aug 28, 2015 7:58 AM Flag

    Assume -20% print and +5% digital growth (-12.5% total) through out 2016 and DXM will easily meet mandatory repayments and interest.

    I am pretty sure DXM will make mid range revenue forecast for $1500M and mid to high end of EBITDA forecast ($525M).

    $ 1500M 2015 revenue
    -12.5% = $ 1.312.5M difference is $187,5M

    Mid range EBITDA - sales decline
    $ 525M - $ 187.5 = $ 337.5M

    add difference between cost savings 2015 ($110M) and yearly cost savings ($160M)

    $ 337.5M + $ 50M = $387.5M

    Subtract interest payments and mandatory repayments $387.5- $ 240M -$120M = $27.5M on which I will detract 60% for cash sweeps

    $27.5M x .60 = $16.5M

    So assuming that I end 2015 with cash on hand of $210M DXM will still accumulate cash on hand in 2016 ending with the year with $226.5M.

    I have the calculation done also quarterly and can share with who ever the file. Just provide email.

    Any body see any errors of assumption or calculation ?

  • lorenzonmartino lorenzonmartino Aug 26, 2015 1:22 AM Flag

    Might be a rounding error for them but I doubt they forgot about it. They are probably have the biggest short on the equity. Short interest though has steadily been declining since 06/15. No exception with yesterday's data.

  • Lot's of funds selling out and reducing however the two biggest funds Paulson and Franklin that, I believe, also own debt (?), did not sell one share. I realize that their shares in DXM amount to a rounding error of their total stock portfolio but don't you think they would sell if they though they were going to be wiped out ?? (and I am pretty sure they have a good idea of what's going on behind the scenes and the chances of recovery).

  • DXM has about 60M in interest payments per quarter and about 30M in mandatory amortization repayments. That makes 90M per quarter. Add what ever safety buffer but let's say they need 100M per quarter.
    Interest payments are deducted from EBITDA and mandatory repayments from FCF: Correct ?
    For what ever it's worth: Considering their 2015 guidance they should still have a small margin of safety after interest and mandatory repayments and so should not default on interest payments and mandatory repayments.

  • Reply to

    No Q&A today boys!!!

    by dexter32 Aug 6, 2015 10:21 AM
    lorenzonmartino lorenzonmartino Aug 6, 2015 10:33 AM Flag

    hey DEXTER do you have an mail where I can contact you ?

  • Reply to

    Changes ahead/ What a croc

    by newspaper_advertising May 30, 2015 11:11 AM
    lorenzonmartino lorenzonmartino Aug 1, 2015 1:33 PM Flag

    newspaper_advertising: do you have any idea if they sales reps accepted to be paid by the month ?

  • lorenzonmartino lorenzonmartino Jul 31, 2015 1:07 PM Flag

    NASDAQ site under holdings

  • lorenzonmartino lorenzonmartino Jul 31, 2015 12:26 PM Flag

    on the topic 8 institutes have already reported their 2Q holdings of which:

    1 decreased
    1 increased
    1 new
    2 stable
    3 sold outs

    The 3 sell outs are tiny positions

  • lorenzonmartino lorenzonmartino Jul 31, 2015 11:27 AM Flag

    And then only a few thousand shares traded in the following 40 minutes. What this tells me is that there are no more sellers at this price level.

  • Minutes. Shares pop 7%.

  • lorenzonmartino lorenzonmartino Jul 27, 2015 5:30 AM Flag

    1% of the "addressable market place of 12M businesses" is 120.000 customers.
    DXM needs to capture 1% of the addressable market to reverse the decline and sales and in EBITDA.

  • Joe Walsh DexHub DexLnk Training on Vimeo

  • lorenzonmartino lorenzonmartino Jun 30, 2015 12:59 AM Flag

    check company website NEWS

  • ..and workforce has tripled over last year

  • lorenzonmartino by lorenzonmartino Jun 24, 2015 4:31 PM Flag

    stands at 7,192,934M shares up 150K circa from prior reading.
    So looks like the 3M shares traded on June 1st were bought by longs or traders but not by shorts covering.
    It would be interesting to know if the buyers of yesterdays 7M shares will hold there shares or if they are just traders.
    Calls for a short squeeze have never materialized in the past but the float has to be very very tight these days !
    Looking forward to some news in the near future.

  • lorenzonmartino by lorenzonmartino Jun 23, 2015 5:26 PM Flag

    ..intriguing..never been so high !!! 14 times average volume (of yesterday that is) and the share price ONLY went up 30%. I would suspect longs were buying today but could be wrong. Considering the free float is supposedly only 5M shares to have 7M shares exchanged does raise a question in my mind.

    Another point: tomorrow we will get short interest related to mid June (from 1st to 15th). On Monday June 1st DXM spiked up with nearly 3M shares traded. If this was short covering then short interest should be down tomorrow (back to around 5M shares short ??). If it was longs buying then the float should be a lot tighter still and would make the situation more bizarre because there are just no so many shares about ( in theory that is)

    So if longs were buying both of June 1st and today who was selling cuase that would make nearly 10M shares bought. No ??
    Were shorts selling into today's rally ?? Any ideas ??

  • lorenzonmartino lorenzonmartino Jun 23, 2015 5:12 PM Flag

    Would Paulson have to report his sell with such a large position. Why would he sell at these prices any way when he could have sold at $13 last summer ?

  • Reply to

    DXM institutional ownership increased to 73.1%

    by hot_stocks49 Jun 19, 2015 1:14 PM
    lorenzonmartino lorenzonmartino Jun 19, 2015 1:19 PM Flag

    Yes there has been a small increase in the last days. Last week I am sure percentage was 72.XX (seventy two and some decimals). Can't really explain the increase at this point in the quarter. Any ideas ?

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