Optimer Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (OPTR) Message Board

for awhile now, I have thought the ENTIRE MARKET is pricey; however, with each new week we hit new highs - how is one to exit? it's like sitting on the sidelines while the "cards or dice are hot"...lol, but I truly do have a difficult time selling. To do what?!?!?!? where are you gonna put it "until the next bottom"??? paying down the mortgage doesn't even make sense since I'm already in 15 yr at 3%! I may put in stop-loss orders, but will not sell out simply because I think I've timed it right; have been wrong before. If I'm stopped out at a great price, then so be it. Congrats to anyone (even those out at $16.29...lol) who has sold and made money on MPW - fine company in a great industry, where the acute & rehab niches will survive imo. I am more worried about seniors currently, but MPW does not go there. Not sure we'll see hospitals shuttering doors anytime soon, but just my opinion. GLTA!

the Seeking Alpha article lends some support to some of Chief's comments...

and there's no doubting the timing was good...

because even "planned sales" are still geared towards making a profit - just as you or I would like it to be if it were us. execs just do not have the privilege of "timing" their sales to profit the MOST, like us. you can hate it all you like, but it's only fair that they have a choice to sell or not - since they cannot dictate the "timing" of the trade(s) based on what's occurring in the market...imo, of course.

KND just exited several master leases...no reason FVE can't do the same, imo. Margins are better in AL/IL, so would like to see FVE as the only public player in this space (after ALC deal) - makes more attractive with larger margins.

lastly, i would point out the continued saturation of metro/suburban markets with NEW CONSTRUCTION as a sign that things are not slowing down in ALF & IL development.

I also feel that assisted living is not going away...despite the sequester, the demographics point to continued success in developing, operating and eventually selling ALFs to those who feel they can improve ops & profit. Even an increase in interest rates will not keep people from needing the services of ALFs - most of which cannot be provided in the home without signif costs. So, cheers & good investing to you as well; difference in opinion is not a bad thing.

have to agree with balduscus on one thing: once you are out of a stock, and unless you are shorting it & have an interest in dogging the company (not that dogging it on a chatboard is effective... :)), there is no need to hang out/troll and bring people down. it's nice to be out when things go south, but feeding off others' misery is a miserable existence imo. move on, or watch from the sidelines...your predictions are well known already.

actually, more likely a REIT would buy vs. KND...imo, of course. VTR?

not sure KND would be a buyer...they have gotten out of leases recently, to focus on "strategic markets"...

the sequester should result in an approx 2% cut to Medicare revenues to providers, at least from what I've read. with Medicare representing only 13.4% of revenue for FVE in the latest qtr, and revs for FVE at an annualized rate of $1.1 billion, approx hit to revs is $3MM, or 0.2%. ALFs have the luxury of higher margins than other health care settings, so I am not sweating the sequester, AND there are other possibilities for budget compromise between now & Dec, again according to news. I think I am in low enough in FVE to avoid significant losses, and I am not heavily exposed...RT, did you ever look at MPW from my mention on the SRZ board a couple years back? got into that one & BX for income, and they've been very good to me. good luck to you with your picks!!

wasn't this at one time a $20 stock?

never got there...lol

lol

lol...just read this again. I am not mocking you, RT, but MAN-O-MAN were you positive in this post. did the earnings report scare you that much? this industry is cyclical, seasonal, and UNPREDICTABLE! the government does not care much for the elderly, as evidenced by provider & physician pay cuts over the past 15 years (back to 1997 BBA). HOWEVER, the demographics and the availability of cash have continued to drive LONG HORIZON investors and private equity, as well as seasoned industry veterans, to this industry to re-formulate existing operations and profit from doing so. I am not down on the industry, or on FVE, and see something much larger coming down the tracks for any ALF operator that is still public...guess we have to wait & see. Just one opinion of many...good luck to all.