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American Capital Agency Corp. Message Board

losesmoneyallday 69 posts  |  Last Activity: 47 minutes ago Member since: Aug 4, 2009
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  • Reply to

    More downside risk, than upside risk...

    by rv0134 1 hour 24 minutes ago
    losesmoneyallday losesmoneyallday 47 minutes ago Flag

    There was more put volume than call volume today on the March 6 strikes. Either hedges from long positions or people betting on a disappointment next week. Most of the volume was on the $9 puts. I am holding onto $9 calls and puts that expire in April.

    I'm curious what you would consider "really good news" to be in this situation. If dividend is reinstated at a ridiculously low amount, I suppose that would be negative, but on the other hand it's positive in that it helps with their debt. If it reinstates dividend at only a few cents lower than where it was before, is that really positive news? And obviously, the downside risk would be that the overstated accounting figures turn out being way worse than previously reported.

  • losesmoneyallday by losesmoneyallday 1 hour 44 minutes ago Flag

    Now that they've finally announced that the financials will be released Monday, I was tempted to dump my puts this afternoon and just ride out my calls through next week, but then I realized there's no guarantees that there won't be any negative surprises or possible negative reactions on Monday either, even though for the moment I am probably more bullish on ARCP than I've been in the past 3 months. Everybody is excited that the drama may finally be coming to an end, but what Monday holds is anyone's guess.

  • Dutch pension fund manager PGGM, which owns about 11.6 million shares, or about 1.3% of the REIT, on Thursday sent a letter to the company’s board calling for four directors connected with Mr. Schorsch to resign.

    Some investors believe the company will name its new senior management team shortly after restating its financial results for 2014. It must refile by Monday to avoid defaulting on $3.2 billion in unsecured credit lines, but could ask for an extension.

    (This is all from WSJ)

    The article mentions "the company is currently deciding between several possible CEOs from a final round of candidates, according to a person briefed on the process."

    So I'm sure the desperate longs here on this board will use their tunnel vision to completely ignore all of the other bad news laced into the article and zero in on that one sentence, claiming that this MUST be the reason why they have been holding up the release of the financial statements for this long. Oh, but of course it is, permabulls!

    Better hope so cause $8 is looking a helluva lot closer than it did on Monday

  • Reply to

    What happened to Jan Div?

    by charles1169 Feb 26, 2015 10:23 AM
    losesmoneyallday losesmoneyallday Feb 26, 2015 12:27 PM Flag

    I forgive you but your heirs might not. Dividend suspended indefinitely until the board gets their financial statements from last year in order, which is supposed to happen by next Monday. Based on today's trading activity there are obviously doubts that they are going to make next week's deadline, in which case they will be subject to additional penalties, and the stock will probably fall back down to the 8s in utter disgust and disappointment. Oh and and the status of the dividend would be up in the air even longer. Sorry for the great news. Feel better

  • Reply to

    Why the selling pressure today?

    by jarednl3 Feb 26, 2015 9:57 AM
    losesmoneyallday losesmoneyallday Feb 26, 2015 10:56 AM Flag

    You answered your own question here. Beginning of the week there was optimism that these screw ups were going to release their statements by the deadline. There hasn't been any new today, 4 days before the deadline, and now that hope has faded and the stock is headed back down to where it was trading at this time last week (or lower). You should start worrying about downward pressure or whispers when this starts looking like it's going to drop below $9

  • Reply to

    What happened to Jan Div?

    by charles1169 Feb 26, 2015 10:23 AM
    losesmoneyallday losesmoneyallday Feb 26, 2015 10:48 AM Flag

    LOL...clueless

  • Reply to

    I think they lay their cards down tomorrow.

    by johnberchick Feb 25, 2015 5:23 PM
    losesmoneyallday losesmoneyallday Feb 26, 2015 12:52 AM Flag

    I'd agree with you if today were Sunday, March 1st

  • Reply to

    March 9 Puts

    by losesmoneyallday Feb 25, 2015 10:16 AM
    losesmoneyallday losesmoneyallday Feb 25, 2015 3:07 PM Flag

    That's the thing with options. You never know what the underlying motives are, unlike the simple buying and shorting of shares. For all we know, a large bulk of the call purchases that expire next week were hedges against shares that were shorted.

  • Reply to

    watching for more news

    by bloodyknuckles14 Feb 22, 2015 6:05 PM
    losesmoneyallday losesmoneyallday Feb 25, 2015 10:38 AM Flag

    Hey wicked witch...how's that crystal ball working out for ya?

  • Reply to

    PLEASE go back down LOL

    by losesmoneyallday Feb 14, 2015 1:05 PM
    losesmoneyallday losesmoneyallday Feb 25, 2015 10:36 AM Flag

    Now that earnings have been released and this has fallen off a cliff...on one hand I'm happy my shares aren't going to get called away on Friday. On the other...I wasn't expecting such a horrible fall when so much bad news was already priced in (I thought). Boy is my accounting showing red today. I guess it's time to write more calls. Too early to buy more

  • losesmoneyallday by losesmoneyallday Feb 25, 2015 10:16 AM Flag

    Uh oh. This morning someone just purchased nearly $300k worth of March 9 puts that expire next Friday. Huge bet that this is going to be trading in the 8s next week. Follow the money?

  • Reply to

    April 11 calls

    by bocamp1 Feb 24, 2015 12:27 PM
    losesmoneyallday losesmoneyallday Feb 24, 2015 3:10 PM Flag

    Yup...some hedge fund is obviously making some monster bets that this is going to be trading in the high 11s/12s in less than 2 months from now. Guess who else owns calls that expire that same week? Yours truly.

  • Down 11% at the time of this post, and that was with the "bad news already priced in" mentality going into earnings. Ouch.

  • Reply to

    Dumped my shares today

    by losesmoneyallday Feb 23, 2015 4:02 PM
    losesmoneyallday losesmoneyallday Feb 24, 2015 1:29 AM Flag

    I posted a thread about the shares I purchased during the last week of January on this board. Got nothing to lie about here sorry to disappoint you. I didn't realize it had almost been a month since I jumped in to LNCO. Felt like it was just weeks ago.

  • Reply to

    6% Return is sufficient

    by catspaw33129 Feb 23, 2015 12:06 PM
    losesmoneyallday losesmoneyallday Feb 23, 2015 5:42 PM Flag

    I was replying to jarednl3's comments about .92 and was not talking about your comments regarding the 6% but I can see how the horrible yahoo forums thread nesting could cause that confusion

  • Reply to

    Dumped my shares today

    by losesmoneyallday Feb 23, 2015 4:02 PM
    losesmoneyallday losesmoneyallday Feb 23, 2015 4:57 PM Flag

    Thanks, but greed definitely got the better of me on this trade. Somehow I had delusions of grandeur the other week when this was at $14 and didn't sell. I was convinced it was going to reach the $15s that week and that crude was going to pop back up to $60, even if just temporarily, but of course the market has a way of bringing you back down to reality real fast.

  • Reply to

    6% Return is sufficient

    by catspaw33129 Feb 23, 2015 12:06 PM
    losesmoneyallday losesmoneyallday Feb 23, 2015 4:47 PM Flag

    You're dreaming. Guarantee you it will not be anywhere near $0.92. They already stated they will be adjusting div down to be more in line with peers. I'm predicting somewhere around .60 - .72, even though nobody here has any clear basis to be speculating what the new div will be. Too many unknowns...still haven't seen last year's true numbers for crying out loud

  • losesmoneyallday losesmoneyallday Feb 23, 2015 4:23 PM Flag

    OPEC nations won't be able to handle these prices past summertime. I bet something is done during the June meeting

  • Reply to

    PLEASE go back down LOL

    by losesmoneyallday Feb 14, 2015 1:05 PM
    losesmoneyallday losesmoneyallday Feb 23, 2015 4:11 PM Flag

    I feel much better about my situation after today's close. If it could stay within the $17 - $19 range after earnings I'll be happy. Hoping for Wednesday morning's news to be mostly a nonevent.

  • losesmoneyallday by losesmoneyallday Feb 23, 2015 4:02 PM Flag

    Acquired a few weeks back @ $9.90, out @ $11.30 today. Didn't want to end up watching this to fall below 11 to take a profit. Will buy back more in the 9s or 10s cause all indicators are pointing to this heading back down to that level.

AGNC
21.435+0.165(+0.78%)4:00 PMEST

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