Wed, Jul 23, 2014, 11:08 PM EDT - U.S. Markets closed

Recent

% | $
Click the to save as a favorite.

Lam Research Corporation Message Board

lost_my_shorts 19 posts  |  Last Activity: Jul 17, 2014 7:10 PM Member since: Apr 21, 2010
SortNewest  |  Oldest  |  Highest Rated Expand all messages
  • lost_my_shorts lost_my_shorts Jul 17, 2014 7:10 PM Flag

    I feel high. How do you feel?

  • Reply to

    Chief

    by lost_my_shorts Jul 15, 2014 5:29 PM
    lost_my_shorts lost_my_shorts Jul 16, 2014 10:19 AM Flag

    Hi Chief: Lam is indeed on a tear. I don't think there are many shorts left. Somebody bailed on Lam AH last night with near 50k shares at 72, so it goes. We have enough water for this year only because of a 20 inch deluge on the mountain late last february.

    Best.

  • lost_my_shorts by lost_my_shorts Jul 15, 2014 5:29 PM Flag

    It looks pretty good from here. Am I wrong?

  • lost_my_shorts by lost_my_shorts Jul 11, 2014 4:35 PM Flag

    Does anyone still care about chip equipment? Please share your views. No short sellers will be mocked (at least by me) during this brief dispensation period.

  • Reply to

    Now that you are dead

    by lost_my_shorts May 20, 2014 4:22 PM
    lost_my_shorts lost_my_shorts Jul 9, 2014 5:38 PM Flag

    By all means, do it some more. At times like this, I sure do feel sorry for those poor old hedge funds caught short for a few hundred million at least.

  • Reply to

    meeting with JP Morgan

    by booney_1 May 24, 2014 8:18 PM
    lost_my_shorts lost_my_shorts Jun 12, 2014 9:57 AM Flag

    I think we are getting to the end of our discussion.

    My own opinions are that 450 is market driven and inevitable, EUV is a fascinating puzzle for minds brighter than mine, 3D processes including FinFET will extend Moore's Law for now, and intellectual property law will guarantee the profitability of this space for a long time.

    Happy summer to all.

  • Reply to

    meeting with JP Morgan

    by booney_1 May 24, 2014 8:18 PM
    lost_my_shorts lost_my_shorts Jun 3, 2014 7:51 PM Flag

    All of the points you make are well taken. You do not mention 450 mm wafer tools, which will have to be. Anyway, that is why I indulge in the idle spec about vertical integration. As Chief pointed out, the vertical integration is happening anyway, so why not on paper?

    I started in chip equip in September 1996, which was the nadir of the time. I still have the stocks from that era, as well as everything since. And 300 mm tech advance was the key for that advancement. I am guessing that 450 will force the tool and die companies to be more than they are at least on beam tools.

    So I guess I am a little bullish too.

    Best to you and the other old timers in the mix.

    TimJ

  • Reply to

    meeting with JP Morgan

    by booney_1 May 24, 2014 8:18 PM
    lost_my_shorts lost_my_shorts Jun 3, 2014 10:16 AM Flag

    Well, I am just guessing about possibilities, not probabilities, about the M&A stuff anyway. But whoever decided to go away in May left a lot of money on the table. I love it!!

  • Reply to

    meeting with JP Morgan

    by booney_1 May 24, 2014 8:18 PM
    lost_my_shorts lost_my_shorts May 29, 2014 5:52 PM Flag

    I think you are articulating some of the considerations that I mentioned earlier as indicative that our investment in a cutting edge technology company is becoming investment in a #$%$ old cash cow (not unlike Oprah.)

    You may be right, but there are things to do with cash other than to give it to the mob. (Casino is one of my favorite films btw.)

    The market abhors a competitive vacuum and somebody will rise up to challenge monopoly or oligopoly.

    As I implied earlier, you did make me wonder if semiconductor companies might reverse their many years of outside contracting for tools. Would a vertical merger of INTC and LRCX create an awsome force?

    (for the knee jerk antitrust reaction: vertical mergers do not attract much attention.)

  • Reply to

    meeting with JP Morgan

    by booney_1 May 24, 2014 8:18 PM
    lost_my_shorts lost_my_shorts May 28, 2014 4:31 PM Flag

    Have to disagree on this one. I have never seen a chip equip company go private after having gone public. (It may have happened without me noticing it but it does not alter my argument.)

    Public trading creates liquidity, which is necessary to keep options flowing to key management.. Much of tech is human capital.

    And intellectual property is the life blood of companies like this. Would the key human capital players defect to option grantors rather than remain salaried employees with a privately held company? Maybe they would in Japan.

    I don't know specifically about the origins of LRCX but some of the early players at NVLS were former Philips employees who wanted a piece of the action that Philips would not give them.

    Never say never but having achieved the benefits of a publicly traded company, why would they go private?

    Your argument about the cash trove would (to me) suggest the potential for a hostile takeover rather than the privatization scenario. But the same human capital and intellectual property considerations suggest that such a strategy would be remote.

    Would you really want to pony up for a company whose key engineers are free to defect at any time carrying all the human capital that their heads can hold?

    Takeovers and privatization can work well with commodity producers, but probably not with cutting edge innovators.

  • Reply to

    meeting with JP Morgan

    by booney_1 May 24, 2014 8:18 PM
    lost_my_shorts lost_my_shorts May 27, 2014 10:59 AM Flag

    I don't see any low hanging fruit, but maybe MTSN?

    Chief thought there was a small probability of KLAC merger. But hey could be doing something as mundane as restructuring debt.

    OT: I heard a report from a guy who spent the winter in Chandler about construction activity there so who knows?

  • lost_my_shorts by lost_my_shorts May 20, 2014 4:22 PM Flag

    Please short more. You know it works every time!

  • lost_my_shorts by lost_my_shorts May 5, 2014 2:33 PM Flag

    You guys know how i stand on these issues. So I am gone. Best to you all.

  • Reply to

    850 Million Buy Back + Dividend

    by booney_1 Apr 29, 2014 5:53 PM
    lost_my_shorts lost_my_shorts May 2, 2014 10:12 AM Flag

    Yes, that is a strong argument in favor of the dividend. In addition to the examples you mentioned, INTC now pays nearly 4% back in dividends, making it a better retirement investment than government bonds. The down side is that INTC has drifted into being a low volatility high safety stock with limits on the upside of price potential. KLAC is interesting because despite the near 3%, the stock keeps going higher. So I am hoping for LRCX behave more like KLAC than INTC. Otherwise I will be looking for more volatility elsewhere and I do not see a lot of candidates with LRCX's low PEG metric.

  • lost_my_shorts by lost_my_shorts May 1, 2014 11:27 AM Flag

    I held Klic stock for years just because it was a reliable leading indicator of chip equip prospects. I don't have any now but what is the stock price telling us? Is it the vaunted cycle peak? Or am I missing something?

  • Reply to

    850 Million Buy Back + Dividend

    by booney_1 Apr 29, 2014 5:53 PM
    lost_my_shorts lost_my_shorts May 1, 2014 11:19 AM Flag

    Good fundamental observation. And they will be buying on dips, not peaks. So there is a lot of support when the market dips. My only worry is that we are now dealing with a stodgy #$%$ stock that pays dividends. (Shrugg would probably compare it to Oprah.) Am I old fashioned? Or just an ingrate?

  • lost_my_shorts by lost_my_shorts Apr 30, 2014 1:50 PM Flag

    ???

    I am not expert on this stock but this is wierd. JMHO.

    tj

  • Reply to

    Kramer - $70 PPS

    by jkfatl_41 Apr 25, 2014 2:40 PM
    lost_my_shorts lost_my_shorts Apr 28, 2014 1:23 PM Flag

    Welcome Shorts! Pay no attention to that man behind the curtain!

  • Reply to

    Chief

    by lost_my_shorts Apr 22, 2014 1:47 PM
    lost_my_shorts lost_my_shorts Apr 24, 2014 1:58 PM Flag

    And speaking of Shrugg, this looks like a reversal on greater than double volume.

LRCX
70.67-0.91(-1.27%)Jul 23 4:00 PMEDT

Trending Tickers

i
Trending Tickers features significant U.S. stocks showing the most dramatic increase in user interest in Yahoo Finance in the previous hour over historic norms. The list is limited to those equities which trade at least 100,000 shares on an average day and have a market cap of more than $300 million.