The Heirs of Stalin by Yevtushenko
Mute was the marble. Mutely glimmered the glass.
Mute stood the sentries, bronzed by the breeze.
Thin wisps of smoke curled over the coffin.
And breath seeped through the #$%$
as they bore him out the mausoleum doors.
Slowly the coffin floated, grazing the fized bayonets.
He also was mute- his embalmed fists,
just pretending to be dead, he watched from inside.
He wished to fix each pallbearer in his memory:
young recruits from Ryazan and Kursk,
so that later he might collect enough strength for a sortie,
rise from the grave, and reach these unreflecting youths.
He was scheming. Had merely dozed off.
And I, appealing to our government, petition them
to double, and treble, the sentries guarding this slab,
and stop Stalin from ever rising again
and, with Stalin, the past.
That's why I don't believe in insider trading :o) a lot of shorties look at insider selling though
There are a number of aspects to insider trading that come up but the shorts are mainly talking about the fact that insiders sell stock and never seem to buy any. Well, the option grants have been restricted by IRS in most cases to non-qualified options when insiders are getting them. IRS realized it was getting screwed by insiders taking most of their pay from stock options that they never intended to convert into stock anyway in lieu of more easily taxable salary and so made companies work harder to create so-called incentive options. So the companies stopped the pretense of incentives and now just frankly grant non-qualified options rather than frankly admit that the options are really salary.
The non-qualified options do not allow capital gains treatment for any stock purchased, therefore there is no incentive to buy stocks with the options because there is no reason to hold the stocks purchased. The insider just waits until the price is high (or they think they are short of money) and converts the option into stock at ordinary income tax rate.
Remember my post on millionaires and their version of groceries?
So that is why there is so much selling and so little buying by insiders.
So ha ha shorties who follow insider transactions. You are being hoodwinked by the tax system.
I think the ups and downs mellowed out quite a bit - there is still the perception of a highly cyclical industry but there are many, many reason (I am to lazy to write down) why it's not highly cyclical.
I agree to a degree. The betas for these stocks have regressed closer to 1. They are companies with larger revenues and profits than 20 years ago.
Lots of tool companies have been bought and many more probably will. The foundry model is alive and well. There are lots of independents though and competition is still around. He who has the tools rules.
Your experience with these stocks sounds similar to mine. My take on them generally is that so much of their value is built into intellectual property, that they are not really operating in a competitive environment. I saw a study years ago that had KLAC with the most valuable intellectual property, followed closely by NVLS.
Once a company has paid its dues and gotten established in a niche, profits seem to follow. Patents last 17 years. An equipment cycle still seems to be around 3 and probably will remain that way until gains from scaling fizzle at about 7-8 nm, which is still about 10 years in the future.
I think that the next equipment up-cycle is already underway and that it will peak in late 2014 or early 2015. The fed seems to be fueling the stock market in general with no real alternatives because there is no sentiment for fiscal assistance for the economy in congress. So long as congress (TP republicans in the house of reps) keeps $ out of the hands of little people (including even food stamp recipients) the fed must continue to print money in massive quantities in (probably vain) hopes that some of it will trickle down into job creation. So far they have succeeded mostly in deflecting investment out of debt and into equity, a trend that will not reverse anytime soon (2017?)
So I think the biggest run up is still ahead of us. There is at least a trillion in bond investments that are under performing now. People won't take that much longer.
I do remember A2K well. I remember Banzai but I do not recall his discussion of ion implantation.
Banzai was an industry insider but he did not always call the market well. He always assumed that reason would prevail and it often does not.
Shrugg used to claim that he lived in an abandoned missile silo, hence my comment.
Thanksgiving was great as usual but I need to work off the calories now.
Hope yours was good as well! Are you still in the mountains? I am still in the same locale as before.
I did not realize ACLS had a clean and strip process. I did not know anything about them until I saw the purchase and assumed, apparently wrongly, that they were trying to get into the ion implant business.
It kind of baffles me that LRCX would need any more clean and strip because NVLS bought GSNX back in 2001 or thereabouts. GSNX was a good company. I seem to recall both NVLS and LRCX competing in CMP too. I think NVLS bought SFAM for that purpose. But I don't think it went anywhere.
BTW I am not SHRUGG. I am Tim.
Have you noticed that ACLS has been rapidly inflating? I think you and I know why, given your discussion of VSEA ion implantation. But LRCX already bought the intellectual property.
Anyway, you are so aware of this space that I thought you might have a take on it. I also remember Hill and how he balked at financing Intel's future gambits into scaling. It cost him and nvls. But maybe he was wise and we should dump lrcx, amat etc... and move into asml and klac. History does not exactly support that theory, except as to ASML, which apparently can do no wrong. What do you think?
Sorry again about Chief. A person can get attached to a true friend.
17 is about as good as it gets for chief rottweiler. dam fine life.
I was mostly into nvls until the merger and i decided to stick with lrcx and have made a lot of money by doing so.
i only wish i was as committed to cymi as i was to nvls. i would be on easy street today. but it was good anyway. and i always had a conceptual problem with visualizing the invisible so excimer radiation was a problem for me.
re: amat and vsea; well if you can't beat em, buy em. that did not surprise me but i was absolutely shocked when TEL got bought by amat. it proved to me that there are no more cultural barriers, even in Japan. I knew Hill was shopping nvls around when he showed up in Japan for no reason (nvls had no japanese business) and donated a million to relief following the nuclear accident. so i knew nvls was on the block but i had no idea that the deal would finally go thru after 20 year.
i know hill was not a fan of 450 but tsm says "jump." the article i was talking about says beam tools will give advantages to companies like asml and klac. i am not sure that i buy that despite how well they argue. i think 450 is the reality and that tool companies better adjust.
You could be right about no more easy money but i am going to disagree with you this time. I think we are seeing a repeat of autumn 1996 funded by Ben Bernanke. i see lrcx to 125. check the peg if you need metrics.
you know who
you will be buying bloated pig fat before long. I love these little flirtations the short have with doom after positive results. This reminds me of 1996.
you know I'm right! wayyyyyyyyyyyyyyy right!
Why would I post a trade? Traders are losers. Oops another sacred cow slain. sorry about that bossy!
good ranting with ya agin granny. dam fine electric Kool Aid in these here hills. Yall could ask Ken Kesey..
Now as for the rest of your post, where the heck are my gonads?? oh yeah, what are gonads?
i honestly could not resist taking a poke at old man storagebs fka bsstorage. he is a chronically disgruntled and #$%$ old short from the days of yore and he honestly cannot believe that there is any metric worthy of consideration other than the p/e as measured in the specious present, which in his opinion has a simple cause and effect relationship with price (although he never quantifies it for us).
see you around the block kids. my advice is to avoid this stock if my posts make no sense to you.
i am just an intermittent occupier. i promise to clean up the trash. in fact, that is my role in life.
Hey wait a minute, do you mean to tell me that you too are dumb enough to be a TP republican? I am merely a republican.
well wait a minute now. do you mean to tell me that you are dumb enough to be a tea party republican? suddenly this "discussion" makes sense. now go away and look for obama's birth certificate. it is probably in afganistan.
i remember them well. shrugg was quite the prognosticator and humorist. a2k was almost convincing me that covered call selling was exploiting a hidden market inefficiency.
what has changed is that we are going to 7-8 nm linewidths before moore's law is no moore. also 450 mm wafers are going to make equipment vendors richer than 300 did.
what has also changed is that i kept buying these shares as they dipped and came slowly up. the merger was even better, but nothing like the money i made when cymi was acquired by asml.
we are in a period of industry consolidation. i don't say a bear cant make money or dont try to make money as a bear. but the bull is running in these stocks again. so please do continue to short sell so you can buy at higher prices. you guys are my best customers!
dont you ever do anything but whine about how nobody agrees with you? get a life. or sell life short.
nobody will care if you lose. you are an unmarked resting place.