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Fortinet Inc. Message Board

lottaluckeh66 95 posts  |  Last Activity: 10 hours ago Member since: Apr 14, 2013
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  • lottaluckeh66 lottaluckeh66 10 hours ago Flag

    I assume then that the provided guidance reflects this revenue shift and inflection point? You can't have it both ways.....from what I heard guidance / revenue trajectory hasn't really changed...10% qtr over qtr...what has changed is the reliability and credibility of the leadership team to accurately provide guidNce based on the flub in 4th qtr...they lose a bit of credibility with the street which means they are back in the "show me" camp....I like Kevin and have confidence in what he is trying to do but this miss will not help the share price in the next 3 months.. This was supposed to be the beginning of successive solid qtrs and now we wait another 3 months for the revenue to match the leaderships enthusiasm for their products....

  • Reply to

    Earnings : VMEM

    by cld9731 12 hours ago
    lottaluckeh66 lottaluckeh66 12 hours ago Flag

    ouch.... guidance can save them.. without solid guidance the bottom falls out i am afraid

  • Sitting this one out... I think the qtr will be solid......which direction it goes depends on guidance..... Hoping for good..not great so I can buy back in....GLTA

  • lottaluckeh66 lottaluckeh66 15 hours ago Flag

    Agreed.. the weakness has allowed me to build a larger position today that I held a year ago with better visibility & demonstrative momentum and adoption in the marketplace..... and I am sure I am not alone...

  • Reply to

    Last Several Trading Days

    by paazoltsigns Mar 3, 2015 4:23 PM
    lottaluckeh66 lottaluckeh66 Mar 4, 2015 11:48 AM Flag

    your are correct, it was the NRF show and the first introduction of the technology/ world record...to be honest, the stock price got ahead of itself based on the initial euphoria and fast money chasers then the sobering reality that the monetization of the technology is still years, not months away brought it back to reality.. i think we are experiencing a similar reaction this time around... great news of new partnerships / shazam licensing, in field application etc but the realization once again that although we are 1 year closer to monetization and have been significantly de-risked, it is still likely a late 2015 / 2016 play.. the fast money moves on and the impatient get antsy.... the risk for those thinking of exiting or reducing their position is that a major catalyst could HIT at any moment with so many irons in the fire that you miss out and find yourself chasing, especially at these levels...for all the reasons this drop has been so sudden and dramatic, the opposite is also true, the rise can be equally aggressive...

  • Reply to

    Last Several Trading Days

    by paazoltsigns Mar 3, 2015 4:23 PM
    lottaluckeh66 lottaluckeh66 Mar 4, 2015 7:41 AM Flag

    that is exactly what they want you to think..create doubt which loosens up shares... i can only tell you that as a long time holder of DMRC i have seen this rapid share decline on more than 1 occasion and in every case their never was a filing nor a major sell off by a major holder, and in every case it recovered. Nothing has changed with DMRC vs 4 weeks ago except for the fact that they are much further down the road in monetizing the technology with in field tests with major retail partners, sales / service partnerships with SGI /GS1 , etc and the market needs for their technology accelerating. The biggest change is revenue expectations... perhaps some people thought the revenue would start to show up in the first half of 2015 but that is simply not realistic.....You have to ask yourself, is DMRC a better investment today than it was 12 months ago based on the market shift, momentum being generated behind their solution, etc and the answer is an UNEQUIVOCAL yes... I find it very hard to believe that an intelligent LT investor who has held through the previous roller coaster would decide now to bail when DMRC is closer to the finish line that at any time in its history... it is thinly traded with a huge short interest and is incredible volatile and subject to manipulation.. end of story.. your call but I love that I am able to add shares lower than our last major at the market offering.... i have the time and patience to wait for my reward... GLTU

  • Reply to

    What's up??

    by twochiefdukee Mar 2, 2015 1:38 PM
    lottaluckeh66 lottaluckeh66 Mar 3, 2015 1:20 PM Flag

    couldn't agree more.. not for sale at any price... what makes it even more difficult is that like many others, I am adding on the way down so they have competition for what shares they are able to shake out of weak hands.. you can only trade with yourself for so long.... GLTA... we will rise again... and i will own more shares than the last lift-off...

  • Reply to

    Correction

    by seabird6100 Mar 3, 2015 9:51 AM
    lottaluckeh66 lottaluckeh66 Mar 3, 2015 11:36 AM Flag

    when they decide to let it rise again.. this is not a correction, simply manipulation. Anybody who has held long enough has been through this many times... Whoever is short worked like hell to keep a lid on the stock price during the last NRF show and positive news built around it ( to the expense of a huge increase in their short interest despite all the positive momentum) which elevates their risk profile should DMRC announce anything meaningful that jolts the stock.. The window of opportunity to push it down is RIGHT NOW.. the show is over, the CC is over without any major leak and now we wait.. as we wait, they play games.... it is what it is.. been buying all the way down and will continue to do so.. as will many others... the risk is not on our side... IMHO

  • lottaluckeh66 lottaluckeh66 Feb 28, 2015 9:00 AM Flag

    no surprise...my bid of $26.52 got hit at the wire... didn't look like it would fill..... then bam.. dropped on the final trade... with no news and such high short interest this game will continue to march on... i just continue to buy at $26.50 and under...my bids will be in Monday..I like simple numbers.. $26, $25.50 and $25 in increasing quantity;s.. GLTA

  • Reply to

    Pre-Market Trades

    by jomike05 Feb 27, 2015 8:48 AM
    lottaluckeh66 lottaluckeh66 Feb 27, 2015 9:08 AM Flag

    they are obviously not in any rush.. which might not be a bad thing in the long run.. most small cap bios make the mistake of rushing the commercialization of their drugs in an effort to generate revenue / cash flow quickly to shore up the balance sheet.. in our case, our balance sheet is rock solid, we are getting close to cash flow breakeven with existing business and new Baxter partnership so they have the time to be pragmatic.... i would rather get it right and be off to the races than the alternative, which happens more often than not of the launch failing to live up to the expectations and the stock price collapsing... once she goes, I want her to only go in 1 direction...

  • Reply to

    Pre-Market Trades

    by jomike05 Feb 27, 2015 8:48 AM
    lottaluckeh66 lottaluckeh66 Feb 27, 2015 8:54 AM Flag

    you already know.... more of the same.. launch timing delay until combined launch end of 2nd quarter gives them more time to play games and gives us more time to accumulate on the cheap.. it is what it is... don't fight it...

  • Reply to

    Watch Out....

    by sahmdars Feb 26, 2015 4:31 PM
    lottaluckeh66 lottaluckeh66 Feb 26, 2015 4:33 PM Flag

    great.. i buy more under $10.40 if I can...

  • Reply to

    Revenue beat by 1.18 million, Buy all you can

    by annieg007 Feb 26, 2015 4:19 PM
    lottaluckeh66 lottaluckeh66 Feb 26, 2015 4:32 PM Flag

    really.. you care about a 5 cent miss on revenues of $13 Million.... it is not even worth discussing... SG&A went up because they are investing to launch a couple of new drugs... remember.. keep your eye on the future..

  • Who cares if they sold $13 or $14M... or lost 5 cents or 14 cents a share.. nobody owns this stock for what is happening in the rear view mirror.. it is all about forward opportunity... what you should focus on is $85M cash, No debt, 2 recently approved drugs and what does this ramp up look like.. that will tell the story and ultimately determine the direction of the stock... this report is meaningless.. it is all about the CC and any insight into the timing of of the new revenue streams... GLTA

  • lottaluckeh66 lottaluckeh66 Feb 25, 2015 1:06 PM Flag

    i hope your base is made out of concrete and not sand.. it feels a bit wobbly right now....

  • Reply to

    I don't see the downside

    by snowjw3090 Feb 25, 2015 9:44 AM
    lottaluckeh66 lottaluckeh66 Feb 25, 2015 12:04 PM Flag

    the downside risk is $11.80.. the 52 week low.. it bounced hard last time and I don't see it falling below.. unless the overall market collapses.... well run company, improving profitability in a good sector.. trouble is small base and the 15-20% growth rate / year doesn't get people excited, especially when off a small base.. not sure how it scales up ... needs to be bought and integrated into something much bigger... IMHO

  • lottaluckeh66 lottaluckeh66 Feb 24, 2015 12:32 PM Flag

    100% agree.. agency's have historically grown through acquisition... both in terms of buying other agencies/ revenue and in terms of buying into new revenue streams / capabilities that they don't currently offer. they don't like to see revenue go elsewhere, as even FUEL indicated on the call, and they typically buy up any threat.. happened with field marketing agencies, digital agencies, data marketing, experiential marketing ... etc.. it is a long list of specialized agencies that now all reside under 1 roof.. they need to act fast ..they are only attractive for as long as their technology is relevant and differentiated, and with CAPEX needing to slow down to preserve the cash burn, try to become profitable, this advantage is right now.. they are a PLUG and Play for the next 12 months vs building it in house and being another year behind the market... i hope ego and pride do not get in the way.. it usually does...

  • lottaluckeh66 by lottaluckeh66 Feb 24, 2015 12:06 PM Flag

    Their is a reason it has not found the bottom yet.. and it is not because of some evil dark forces, although I am sure the shorts have no trouble piling on the weakness. The FACT is the current model does not work , not for Fuel and not for all the other " marginal " ad tech players. Revenue growth is not sustainable without investment, both through acquisition ( x+1 ) and headcount but shrinking margins are too thin to offset this increased investment thus the loss widens or the "promise" of making money fades. FUEL is not alone....It trades at less than 1X revenue because revenue without profits is not really a business and unlike AMZN, growth is not sustainable and the competitive landscape is taking more than their fair share. So what do they do, try and reduce OPEX and CAPEX to show a profit, but at the expense of revenue growth, while FB, GOOG, large Global Ad agencies continue to leverage their scale and reinvest back in the business. Their competitive advantage is "technology or AI" yet they have no choice but to throttle back..it just gets uglier by the day.. just look at MM and others who are trying to swim upstream.... this road leads to nowhere, if they are smart they begin to shop themselves around and hope for a strategic buyer / partner before they need to raise more funds. At the current cash burn and available cash, they will need funds before end of year without a strategic investment / outright sale and it is the worst possible time for an equity raise... the $100M spent on X+1 will bite them.. it hasn't delivered the revenue growth, simply allowed them to stay competitive, and it has accelerate their cash need by at least 12 months. Lets hope for a buyer.

  • lottaluckeh66 lottaluckeh66 Feb 10, 2015 9:34 AM Flag

    all valid points, but mobile companies without revenue growth are DOA... time will tell, it definitely will have to test the 52 week low, if not today, then certainly this month... GLTA

  • lottaluckeh66 lottaluckeh66 Feb 10, 2015 7:31 AM Flag

    Nope....depleting the only asset they have ...cash....no growth and a shift to less profitable mobile is a double whammy...new 52 week low coming today I am afraid....

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