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lottopol.geo 13 posts  |  Last Activity: Jan 20, 2015 6:15 PM Member since: Jun 10, 2000
  • If I had asked even the most bearish person on mREITs three years ago what would happen if in 2015 the rate of the 10-year treasury bond were to be 1.80% and Federal Funds were still to be 0.25%, they certainly would have said something to the effect that: "well then of course you will make a fortune in mREITs and similar leveraged income and carry plays, but that rate scenario is impossible".

    We are now have the 10-year treasury bond at 1.80% and Federal Funds are still at 0.25%. A large part of the underperformance of leveraged income and carry plays such as ..."
    eekingalpha. article/2830536

  • "...If I had asked even the most bearish person on mREITs three years ago what would happen if in 2015 the rate of the 10-year treasury bond were to be 1.80% and Federal Funds were still to be 0.25%, they certainly would have said something to the effect that: "well then of course you will make a fortune in mREITs and similar leveraged income and carry plays, but that rate scenario is impossible".

    We are now have the 10-year treasury bond at 1.80% and Federal Funds are still at 0.25%. A large part of the underperformance of leveraged income and carry plays such as MORL and CEFL relative to what one might have expected given the accuracy of my interest rate outlook, is due to a number of factors. Most significant is that mREITs and closed-end funds have gone from premiums over book value to large discounts. This is because, among other reasons, those who said the spike in interest rates was imminent three years ago are even more vocal and convinced it is imminent now...."...
    seekingalpha /article/2830536

  • The Rebalancing will result in a smaller, but still large yield. However, the discount to book value will make CEFL more compelling.
    Leveraged income and carry plays such as MORL and CEFL have underperformed what might have expected given the 10-year treasury bond at 1.80% and Federal Funds still at 0.25%.
    This underperformance is because, among other reasons, those who said the spike in interest rates was imminent three years ago are even more vocal and convinced it is imminent now.
    The UBS ETRACS Monthly Pay 2x Leveraged Closed-End Fund ETN (NYSEARCA:CEFL) underwent a rebalancing at the end of 2014. The first monthly dividend based on the new composition of the index upon which CEFL is based, will be paid in February 2015. The dividend will be based on those components that had ex-dividend dates in January 2015....."
    seekingalpha /article/2830536
    ...

  • lottopol.geo lottopol.geo Jan 6, 2015 9:28 AM Flag

    project a $0.9344 MORL monthly dividend for January 2015.
    Actual
    Payment Date Coupon Amount Ex-Date Record Date
    1/22/2015 $0.949 1/09/2015 1/13/2015

  • Reply to

    Prof, Brofmans articles post here

    by des645 Dec 17, 2014 10:39 PM
    lottopol.geo lottopol.geo Dec 27, 2014 9:35 PM Flag

    CEFL January Dividend Gives Yield Of 23%

    Summary
    •My projection is that the January 2015 monthly dividend for CEFL will be $0.5574.
    •This will result in an annualized compounded yield of 23% based on the three most recent monthly dividends.
    •The recent lower prices for CEFL makes it still a compelling buy for yield oriented investors.

    The UBS ETRACS Monthly Pay 2x Leveraged Closed-End Fund ETN (NYSEARCA:CEFL) and YieldShares High Income ETF (NYSEARCA:YYY), which is based on the same index and thus has the same components as CEFL, but without the 2X leverage, will soon declare monthly dividends for January 2015. There are 30 closed-end funds that comprise the ISE High Income Index upon which CEFL and YYY is based. As is shown in the table below, of those 30, there are 4 that pay dividends quarterly, while the other 26 pay dividends monthly. One of the 4 quarterly payers went ex-dividend in November 2014, Nuveen Diversified Currency Opportunities Fund (JGT). Thus, it will not be included in the January 2014 CEFL monthly dividend calculation. The other three quarterly payers all have ex-dividends in the month of December 2014. Thus, they will be included in the January 2014 CEFL dividends.

    Because of the three quarterly payers there is still some "small month" - "big month" effects . The components: Gabelli Equity Trust (NYSE:GAB), AllianzGI NFJ Dividend Interest & Premium Strategy Fund (NYSE:NFJ) and Nuveen Equity Premium Opportunity Fund (JSN) still pay quarterly dividends in January, April, October and July. Those three comprise 10.56% of the index. However, the small month - big month effect is more pronounced than just 10.55% since in the big months they pay amounts equal to 3 months of dividends.

    My projection is that the January 2015 CEFL dividend will be $0.5574. YYY is a fund, not an ETN, so they do not have to pay the exact dividend amount required by the terms of the note each..."
    seekingalpha /article/2782295

  • All but two of the 23 mREITs that comprise ETRACS Monthly Pay 2x Leveraged Mortgage REIT ETN (NYSEARCA:MORL) and Market Vectors Mortgage REIT ETF (NYSEARCA:MORT) have declared dividends with ex-dividend dates in December 2014. I have used those to project that the MORL January 2015 dividend will be $0.9344. The mREIT components of MORL that I have not used in the calculation are: RAIT Financial Trust (RAS) which has declared a quarterly dividend of $0.18 with an ex-date of January 7, 2015. Even though the pay-date is of January 30, 2015, I have assumed it will not go into the January 2015 MORL dividend. I also did not include any contribution to the January 2015 MORL dividend from Newcastle Investment Corp (NCT). NCT last paid a quarterly dividend of $0.30 with an ex-date of September 29, 2014 and a pay date of October 31, 2014. NCT has undergone reverse stock splits and has had a spinoff where each NCT holder received a share of Senior Investment Group (SNR) for each NCT held. Neither NCT which is still in MORL or SNR which is not, have declared any dividends since last quarter. If NCT does declare a dividend with a December 2014 ex-date that would increase my forecast for the MORL January 2015 dividend...."
    seekingalpha article/2770845

  • All but two of the 23 mREITs that comprise ETRACS Monthly Pay 2x Leveraged Mortgage REIT ETN (NYSEARCA:MORL) and Market Vectors Mortgage REIT ETF (NYSEARCA:MORT) have declared dividends with ex-dividend dates in December 2014. I have used those to project that the MORL January 2015 dividend will be $0.9344. The mREIT components of MORL that I have not used in the calculation are: RAIT Financial Trust (NYSE:RAS) which has declared a quarterly dividend of $0.18 with an ex-date of January 7, 2015. Even though the pay-date is of January 30, 2015, I have assumed it will not go into the January 2015 MORL dividend. I also did not include any contribution to the January 2015 MORL dividend from Newcastle Investment ...."
    seekingalpha article/2770845

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • lottopol.geo lottopol.geo Dec 14, 2014 12:56 AM Flag

    The CEOC subsidiary that owes the $225 million has over a $billion in cash from the sale of various casinos. They still may not pay and use the 30-day grace period in an attempt to get a close to prepackaged bankruptcy. Or may pay to put more time between the challenged transactions and the bankruptcy filing.

  • Reply to

    December Divi $.3873

    by tierra_energy Dec 5, 2014 10:16 AM
    lottopol.geo lottopol.geo Dec 5, 2014 4:55 PM Flag

    projection was that the December 2014 monthly dividend for CEFL will be $0.3719.
    seekingalpha /article/2700395

  • lottopol.geo lottopol.geo Dec 5, 2014 3:11 PM Flag

    The January dividend will be some what less than otherwise because of the agnc switch to monthly which takes from January and givs it to other months

    "..The projected dividend for the month of December 2014 of $0.1343 is an 87.9% increase from the September 2014 dividend of $0.074.The comparison with September 2014 is not useful because of the shift by AGNC to monthly dividends. Were AGNC not included the projected dividend for the month of December 2014 would have been $0.0809..."
    seekingalpha /article/2694995

  • Only three of the 24 mREITs that comprise ETRACS Monthly Pay 2x Leveraged Mortgage REIT ETN (NYSEARCA:MORL) and Market Vectors Mortgage REIT ETF (NYSEARCA:MORT) have an ex-dividend date in November 2014. Those three components are: American Capital Agency Corp. (NASDAQ:AGNC) which now pays monthly and goes ex-dividend November 25 2014 with a pay date of December 4, 2014., Armour Residential REIT (NYSE:ARR), which pays monthly, and thus goes ex-dividend during the relevant period and NorthStar Realty Finance Corp. (NYSE:NRF), which goes ex-dividend November 5, 2014 with a pay date of November 14, 2014. Thus, it is now possible to project that the monthly dividend that MORL will declare for the month of December 2014 will be $0.1343...."
    seekingalpha /article/2694995

  • The UBS ETRACS Monthly Pay 2x Leveraged Closed-End Fund ETN (NYSEARCA:CEFL) and YieldShares High Income ETF (NYSEARCA:YYY), which is based on the same index and thus has the same components as CEFL, but without the 2X leverage, will soon declare monthly dividends for December 2014. There are 30 closed-end funds that comprise the ISE High Income™ Index upon which CEFL and YYY is based. As is shown in the table below, of those 30, there are 4 that pay dividends quarterly, while the other 26 pay dividends monthly. Only one of the 4 quarterly payers goes ex-dividend in November 2014, Nuveen Diversified Currency Opportunities Fund (JGT). Thus, it will be the only quarterly payer included in the December 2014 CEFL monthly dividend calculation....."
    seekingalpha /article/2700395

  • Reply to

    what will morl and cefl november divy be

    by des645 Oct 29, 2014 2:55 PM
    lottopol.geo lottopol.geo Nov 3, 2014 10:09 PM Flag

    projection is that in November, MORL will pay a monthly dividend of $0.1218. This would bring the annualized compounded yield to the 25% level.
    MORL November Dividend And Yield To Increase Due To AGNC Dividend Switch
    seekingalpha. /article/2576515

    projection is that CEFL will declare a dividend of $0.4279 in November.
    CEFL Now Yielding 22.5%
    seekingalpha. /article/2576705

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