Apples and oranges. There isn't a law prohibiting Congresspeople from trading based on nonpublic information that they come across as part of their jobs. It arguably should be illegal, but it isn't.
Link? Last I heard was from a gov yesterday who said the Fed isn't doing enough: inflation was too low and unemployment too high.
I believe May VIX futures expire today (well, at the open tomorrow). On days like this in the past, VIX has been pushed higher more than one would naturally expect from the movement of the broader market so that it's roughly equal to the expiring futures.
I agree with most of what you say, but A= B doesn't mean B= A. It is a given that longs are usually overconfident at market tops. It is also true that longs are overconfident 5%, 10%, 15%, and 20% below market tops. Longs being overconfident doesn't imply the market has reached a top.
The market has been overbought for months and will continue to be overbought as it grinds higher. Technicals are only meaningful in a fair market. Are you long or short?
You're mixing S&P points with SPY points. If the S&P goes up 6.8 handles in a day, that's 68 cents for SPY. Meaning an ATM option would go up 29 cents. Add that to your 60 cent average option price and you get a profit of almost 50%, not 383%
There's been overconfident talk from both shorts and longs here for the past three years. None of that has ever signalled a market top.
come on, when the Fed decided to make bonds unattractive, did you really think bankers would put the money into making loans to businesses? Why get 6% per year when you can get 6% per month by buying stocks? Sure, it's a ponzi scheme, but it's not anywhere near bursting as long as the money keeps pouring in.
It used to be just another indicator, like TRIN. Then somebody got the bright idea of making it tradeable, and permabears have been losing billions ever since.
Analysts continually revise their estimates. All that matters is that the company beats the estimates in effect when they announce. You know this.
If you can't predict accurately where the market is heading, you should cover your short now and put what's left of your money in CDs.