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Torch Energy Royalty Trust Message Board

loveovervaluedstocks 12 posts  |  Last Activity: Feb 25, 2014 11:43 AM Member since: Jan 30, 2001
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  • Reply to

    nm retracement

    by bulruner_1999 Feb 20, 2014 9:58 AM
    loveovervaluedstocks loveovervaluedstocks Feb 25, 2014 11:43 AM Flag

    Charting the stars? That's easier than charting markets, especially when the big banks, globally, went on a one way bet to hell, which saw bail outs galore, in record fashion! Now they claim, "Clients First"!!!! Now computers are replacing human traders by the ship load, so to speak, able to "Create" their own "Reflation", in a naturally, deflationary tendency of capitalism's, "Creative Destruction"! Donald Trump likes to boast and beat his chest but back in the past, he was insolvent but the banks decided to keep him afloat and resurrect him from sure bankruptcy in the 1980's. Investment banks/commercial banks and investors in general lost all confidence during the credit crunch and now they are regaining market confidence. "Clients First"? I'd think banks/investment banks see more opportunitie$$$$$$ on the long side and rebuilding markets which they thought wouldn't destroy self and created record bail outs in history! They'd be stupid to keep destroying themselves, without a doubt! Just my take since early 2009. Remember watching the TV and everybody seemed to be investing in safes in their homes. Can you imagine in the aftermath of World War II and bombed out cities in Europe, bears were in control???? You wouldn't be in a position today to be talking about shorting anything! Capitalism is man made and so is the stock markets! One way bets with Credit Default Swaps (CDS) against clients, is OVER!!!!! Clients First!!!!! :-)

    Sentiment: Hold

  • loveovervaluedstocks loveovervaluedstocks Feb 8, 2014 11:27 AM Flag

    caustic_fred is alright. It does seem logical for NM to fall based on superficial news. Many countries are being strained by financial woes and their initial stance on global warming spending away from coal, is being tested mightily as they have no money to waste. Germany is ramping up coal usage as they reduce reliability on nuclear energy, not to mention others. As markets fluctuate, there will be economic progress taking place under the surface. The big banks have been gelded regarding mass human prop trading seeking personal trading compensation at the risk of destroying markets functioning for the good of civilization. I'll remember when Goldman's CEO, Lloyd Blankfein, stating he's going back to do, "God's work", after the credit crunch and facing off the congress and press. Those back room deals like that of the Abacus deal, coming to light and betting against their own clients, didn't look good! The very, "Big and sophisticated investors" he/they were lining up to fleece, sure didn't go well, especially as they being sued and regulated as we speak. Laws of the jungle, rule.

    Now we find out that England is a hotbed of market fraud and the Bank of England condoned traders manipulating the FX markets. JPMorgan and the London Whale's $6.2Billion loss, would suggest London overlooks regulatory rules or they don't have much responsibility over there? Gold prices are set there as well as shipping dry bulk rates.

    Now they're hitting the emerging market currencies as an entire trade as the Fed tapers, yet if they (banks/investment banks) are/were betting on higher treasury yields on tapering, that trade is working against them. Circumstantial evidence suggests emerging markets and/or traders are being advised to buy gold as protection against falling currencies. Obviously as investors are forced to hedge, they feel much safer getting their capital back as they pile into treasury, forcing yields lower! Just saying.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    Any news???

    by dc5727 Feb 5, 2014 1:38 PM
    loveovervaluedstocks loveovervaluedstocks Feb 6, 2014 6:14 PM Flag

    A number of years ago when gold was falling to the $200 an ounce range, gold stocks were trending up. Something may be in the offing longer term for bulk shipping. The investment bankers see opportunity to make money in the sector. There's no value in the sell side when the sector is beaten down and out. Wall Street and the general trading firms were hell bent in bursting bubbles, anticipating hyper inflation on record stimulus injections, on to realize they're actually clueless on forecasting inflation every year since the peak of inflation since the Paul Volcker era. There's no value in shorting but for the sake of gambling. If you're playing the insurance/hedging game against some massive portfolio of managing other people's money (OPM), that's different, especially if you fear skittish redemptions from the fund one is managing. Somebody sold some $81mm of VIX $22 calls earlier this week. Speculations abound.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • loveovervaluedstocks loveovervaluedstocks Jan 31, 2014 3:02 PM Flag

    I think China is shut for a week to celebrate. A lot of demand for Yuan rinmibi.

  • loveovervaluedstocks loveovervaluedstocks Jan 31, 2014 2:42 PM Flag

    trub. What you hear and I hear, many times are interpreted differently. I mostly try and read through markets to my own understanding, knowing analysts might think they're speaking the truth but knowing forked tongue truth/lies may be re-construed as speculative but not intentional. China is supposed to collapse despite the government has in excess of $1.3Trillion in US bonds and growing. The 10 year was over 3% a couple weeks ago and rates were supposed to go higher as the Fed reduce bond & mortgage securities by $10B monthly. The 10 year is 2.67% here. As speculators hit the highly leveraged emerging market currency markets in favor of the USD, I don't see any destabilization in the underlying market for this fear of contagion. This is a insurance/hedged strategic trade or making some profits on the sell side in the international scene without disturbing US regulation. Gung Hay Fat choy! China's shut for business!

  • loveovervaluedstocks loveovervaluedstocks Jan 30, 2014 10:40 AM Flag

    Always wanted to buy BAC below $3! NM $3+. Law of the jungle! :-)

    Sentiment: Hold

  • loveovervaluedstocks loveovervaluedstocks Jan 30, 2014 10:38 AM Flag

    "You have a poor understanding of fundamental mathematics".

    caustic. That's what they told me on the SKF board back in 2009. Said buy and hold don't work anymore, so I bought when the fundamentals were lousy. NM I bought after the PIIGS were shorted and Greece and the rest of the Euro Zone and Euro were supposed to go belly up. Fundamentals were lousy and the mathematics were undecipherable! That's me, buy when the fundamentals are terrible..........and hold! Up many times fold on a bunch of stocks, including NM!

  • loveovervaluedstocks loveovervaluedstocks Jan 30, 2014 12:51 AM Flag

    caustic_fred. Traders will under perform. It's getting harder for insiders to make money like before. What's considered insider trading today, was legal back in the mid 1990's. Basically going back over time, there's been chiseling away for insiders to make a killing from, "insider information". By moving from a wider profit margin spread of fractions, trading in metrics make it really hard for you to compete against rapid fire program trading computers. Pre credit crunch crisis, Government Sachs and others used to be able to go naked short for months at a time, pre bail out, pre FDIC public insurance backed, pre trade + 3 days Reg Sho, pre owning unlimited amount of hedge funds, pre massively over leveraged, etc.
    Even traders are losing jobs to automated algorithm computer trading robots. Bank of America only lost about 3 days on trades in the last reported quarter. Or was it for the half year? Citigroup said their traders have to take weekends off and take their full vacation time, based on reports today. Don't come back early, said Citigroup! As far as I can see, the market is working pretty good, right now! :-)

    Sentiment: Hold

  • loveovervaluedstocks loveovervaluedstocks Jan 29, 2014 11:19 AM Flag

    caustic_fred. How do you see the stock market? As a tool to destroy itself and/or a toll to aid in economic progress?

    Say I'm in the business of market making and I'm a book runner/investment banker/shadow bank/FDIC insured, therefore I should be hedging/insuring/supporting my clients whom I sold paper to? Should I trade against my clients like we saw in the sub-prime mortgage backed CDO derivatives debacle? Just asking since I noticed $Billions in fines being levied against banks/book makers currently.

    "Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC, J.P. Morgan Securities LLC and Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC acted as joint-bookrunning managers of the offering, which was made under an effective shelf registration statement. Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. and S. Goldman Capital LLC acted as co-managers"

  • loveovervaluedstocks loveovervaluedstocks Jan 28, 2014 8:29 PM Flag

    You're still short?

  • loveovervaluedstocks loveovervaluedstocks Jan 21, 2014 7:16 PM Flag

    Oh sorry! :-)

  • HSH Nordbank AG, the world’s largest shipping bank, agreed to sell a portfolio of 10 unprofitable vessels to Greek freight company Navios Group to reduce its risks on loans by about $300 million.

    Navios, a Piraeus, Greece-based shipper, will pay $130 million for about 40 percent of the loans and guaranteed to operate the five tankers and five container ships for at least six years, the Hamburg-based bank said today in a statement.

    The remaining $170 million will be converted into a participating loan for 10 years, according to the statement. During that period the German state-owned lender will receive 80 percent of the returns generated by the ships, excluding operating and capital costs.

    “The insolvent vessels, or those on the brink of insolvency, are transferred to a highly professional operator that is able to secure an economically feasible operation of the vessels throughout the shipping crisis,” Wolfgang Topp, the head of HSH’s restructuring unit, said in the statement. “There is a significant reduction of risk for the financing bank.”

    The ownership of the ships, which were built in 2006 or later, will be transferred to Navios. They include tankers with volumes of as much as 80,000 deadweight tons and container ships with a capacity of as much as 3,400 standard containers.

    HSH said it is in talks with owners of other vessels in its loan portfolio to reach similar agreements to reduce its holdings by more than 1 billion euros ($1.3 billion).

    Sentiment: Buy

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