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First Solar, Inc. Message Board

lt_capital 3 posts  |  Last Activity: Jul 10, 2014 3:55 PM Member since: Oct 4, 1999
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  • Reply to

    Had a healthy pull back

    by fdkp5354 Jul 9, 2014 8:31 PM
    lt_capital lt_capital Jul 10, 2014 3:55 PM Flag

    We are brutally undervalued compared to SPWR....it's currently trading at 29X this year's earnings. FSLR is sitting at 23X for this year and that assumes that we only make $2.70 in earnings...and FSLR always lowballs. I'm believe we'll come in around $3.70 or possibly more based on my modeling....I think $3.70 will prove to be on the conservative side. But assuming we came in at $3.70 that would put our PE at about 17. Based on SPWR's PE we should be over $100...which I don't think is out of line. I think the market continues to overestimate the value of the rooftop market and under value utility scale solar. The bottom line is rooftop solar is...and probably always will be....an inefficient deployment of solar. It costs 2X as much per watt to deploy rooftop solar as utility scale. Granted distribution costs offset some of that saving but the distribution network doesn't go away unless everyone has solar and can store it for use overnight...so really until the cost of rooftop solar plus the battery is less than what you can buy energy off the grid it just doesn't make sense.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Why all the Insider selling?

    by coeurbot May 12, 2014 1:36 PM
    lt_capital lt_capital May 13, 2014 10:01 AM Flag

    You need to put their stock sales in context of their overall compensation structure.....for instance, Jim Hughes is also compensated with restricted stock units (RSU's), equity awards and equity incentive plan awards. So in additon to the 554 shares he has left, he also has stock awards of 106,282 shares that haven't vested yet....for equity incentive plan awards he has 500,000 shares that could potentially vest in this plan...so the sale of 16,000 shares is less 3% of the stock that is part of these plans. Mark Widmark only sold just over 20% of his current holdings but also has nearly 400K of shares to vest in these plans and George Antoun is in a similar position. So within the context of their overall compensation structure the sale of these shares is insignificant. I also put a lot of weight on what the CFO does as he knows the numbers better than anyone and I was surprised given the number of shares he has left to vest he didn't sell them all....I would have.....so that gives me a lot of confidence that he is pretty positive on the outlook to hold the 34K shares he has left.

    Bottom line, these sales are immaterial and the market overall will see that....but the day traders will try to make a big deal of it and try to scare the little guys out.

    If your interested in more info I would refer you to their annual proxy statement on their site.

  • Reply to

    CEO is going to be on Crammer tonight

    by lake.days May 8, 2014 9:37 AM
    lt_capital lt_capital May 11, 2014 10:05 PM Flag

    They were talking about putting together a "Yield Co" .....which would essentially be a vehicle for investors to buy a stream of payments thorwn off by these power plants....so it is like a long term dividend paying company. The hope is that by getting investors excited by these vehicles for long term steady streams of payments they will lower the cost of capital which in turn will make the "sale" of the power plant more profitable and raise FSLR's profits.

FSLR
63.43-0.24(-0.38%)Jul 11 4:00 PMEDT

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