(1) Fully marketable? From the Press Release: "The offer and sale of the Notes are not being registered under the Securities Act, or any state securities laws. The Notes may not be offered or sold in the United States except pursuant to an exemption from the registration requirements of the Securities Act and any applicable state securities laws." So, this does not lead to a market with much liquidity at all -- though I do think these converts may become registered at some point in time, indeed I thought by this summer.
(2) As for selling and then unwinding hedges, I will concede this might occur, but I think it is quite likely these will be a buy and hold instrument for most -- due the coupon and the share premium in the event of a buyout, for instance.
nvaxmbpoll, I think you are a sleasebag. But I am impressed you can type with those fins.
I see you were just born today; a quick death to you would be appropriate.
George, you want ZIOP to be transparent and truthful?
I respectfully submit you do the same.
Well, Adam again. What a hack. Sadly, it seems to work quite regularly. This won't inspire much selling, but the goal is simply to slow down buying so Short Friends have a better chance to cover.
ouabra45, a lot more traders used the 50 and 200 day averages (crossing) than use the weekly charts you seem to be obsessed with. Second, some might think you post is just ignorant given the fact you appear to rely on trend analysis (using weekly charts), and those weekly chart trends aren't conceptually different than the application of moving averages.
That is unblind, not unbound. The study is blinded, actually a double blind study.
Now, even though it was still blinded the day of the CC (may 8 was it), and it remained blinded at that time. Now, mainlylobster on this board indicates that it will not be unblinded before the 182 day end point -- BUT there is no standard protocol or standard practice for unblinding, AND they did mention that the RSV season was over and that they were doing final PCR testing at that time (checking all the patients to see what ones got RSV this winter). So, on May 8 they were testing, I assume they were testing each patient when that patient hit 182 days (that's the trial endpoint), and if so they could possibly unblind that patient at that time; now they might not be doing this, but they could do so without impacting the study results (that is what blinding is for). In any event, this data is only available to the review group and any statisticians doing the analysis.
bought back in today, it's been awhile. I read georgebushky's post, quite articulate I must say, but not convincing enough to keep me from buying. Got a bit of an attack on some bios today, in addition the short position here won't give up till ZIOP need financing or till there's a buyout -- they won't give up mostly because they remain trapped.
the dope ouabra, although I don't find ouabra45 too enlightening for me personally, and too I recall many posts of his that seemed, seemed, well, quite light, I will say in his defense that his use of weekly charts:
(1) is definitely not for a day trade;
(2) is not for a quick swing trade;
(3) but intends to capture the trend in the pps of a stock, and it's best use is to buy a stock when the trend is definitely to the upside and to sell the stock when the trend shows signs of peaking or turning.
(4) So, it is a very legitimate strategy;
(5) though I do have some difficultly viewing oubra45 as legit.
From an investment perspective it is a "the trend is your friend" approach. There's a bit of stuff out there on how one should never buy unless the trend is up, and the application of weekly based TA is one method of trying to catch the trend -- it appears ouabra45 uses a bit more than weekly data (like volume data, perhaps). I personally am more of a bottom fisher and fundamentals guy; I don't day trade.
thanks, I will look at history of the shipping preferred closer -- this the first time I've gotten into these (each sector a learning curve), previously in banks (the 2008-09), REITS, and a few oil MLP's.
Preferred shares been doing nicely, a bit of a fallback today which I believe is temporary. GSL preferred trading like they are par $15 not par $25!
yes, I agree. The PCR (RT-PCR) test is for infection. But, yes, they test at 182 days for immunogenicity also.
I have to admit, I did (and do) not quite understand that response. The PCR test, I think, is simply the diagnostic test to confirm RSV infection (per the clinical trials page for the RSV trial). So, my thinking was that this testing would be going on throughout the trial. If they are doing testing now, I assume it would be on the full trial sample (except those who were sick and tested), to find patients who might have gotten RSV but whose symptoms were so slight they never knew, or never needed treatment -- correct?
thanks for the responses. Unblinding, as I thought, would be post 182 days, this for the entire dataset.
That said, I do wonder under the protocol whether information can be gleaned from the trial prior the unblinding. For instance, we know that virtually none of the placebo vaccinated will show an immune response, that all or almost all with the RSV vaccine will show response. Then, for the subset that gets RSV -- I've wondered whether the blood test for it would also have included information pointing to placebo and the RSV vaccinated -- while this might not be compiled (certainly not for data analysis), it might provide some anecdotal evidence, especially if there is a very wide disparity in who gets RSV (there was in P 2 trial).
It's hard to tell what this event might be. On a buyout, perhaps, I do think the language coming from Novavax has changed -- from we are going to remain independent and partner for RSV (and I assume other vaccines), to the recent we believe the best course is for us to market in North America and for a partner to market rest-of-world. Even the tone of it was different, I believe. And even with a buyout, Novavax could very well be responsible for USA marketing, this would include continuing the ACIP initiative which is a bit of marketing and also (per a post by mainlylobster) negotiating a contract for marketing/distribution with a major USA wholesaler.
Citi did buy 137 million of the convertible bonds.
ouabra45, I'm not what one would call "excited." Your great TA here is interesting, but I must say I've taken and passed every trading course by the Etrade Baby, and in addition have a degree in econometrics, the combination of which (especially the Etrade Baby courses) gives me a pretty decent take on TA that I do and TA of others -- as you know, we look at stocks with different TA approaches.
My TA says that TA is trumped by the convert shares and trading subsequent related to the convert issue. I've no idea if I'm any good at this stuff, but if I am not, at least I am very lucky.
(1) The punch line: these transfers will end;
(2) As you know, decent move here today on a down day for the market and for the bio indices;
(3) Watch: for more large blocks, and if so, will they sell at lower prices than the close today, or only at higher prices. This is my watch, I don't care if you don't watch or don't care;
(4) Clear break above 5 will get us 6. Tricky the 7, because of the converts -- if NVAX moves up and stalls, I'll comment on this.
good luck, cheers (to most),
jack, martini almost in hand