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Lihua International, Inc. Message Board

luckijack1 304 posts  |  Last Activity: Aug 26, 2015 10:01 AM Member since: Apr 1, 2013
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  • Reply to

    Chart is looking way oversold....

    by krill66 Aug 26, 2015 8:08 AM
    luckijack1 luckijack1 Aug 26, 2015 10:01 AM Flag

    Well, bio indices up, XON up, and ZIOP has broken away from them -- to the downside. Large short position controlling.

    I was shocked by the complete collapse in the market yesterday. Does not bode well for stability.

    jack

  • Reply to

    Fading after that strong open....

    by krill66 Aug 25, 2015 2:15 PM
    luckijack1 luckijack1 Aug 25, 2015 3:15 PM Flag

    Oil still up also. Doing some reading there.

    I'm looking at the USA market gapping up tomorrow if Asia follows through, and the futures there look good.

    jack

  • Reply to

    Fading after that strong open....

    by krill66 Aug 25, 2015 2:15 PM
    luckijack1 luckijack1 Aug 25, 2015 2:50 PM Flag

    ZIOP trading better than NVAX, and NVAX is a better positioned company.

    Futures are up across Asia, and a bit of recovery in Shanghai will keep the USA market going up tomorrow.

    ZIOP looks a bit stagnant right now, and it might not be going up because there aren't enough shares on the sell side to go after, given the earlier runs today.

    jack

  • Covering? Or some inst adding? looks decent so far, they are not backing off the larger asks (largest I noted was 30K at 8.50).

    jack

  • luckijack1 luckijack1 Aug 25, 2015 8:56 AM Flag

    Yes, I think so. Europe up good today. Have to see what the US market does. Then, Shanghai -- Shanghai is still 30% higher than a year ago, but the freefall there does need to stop to steady other markets. Shanghai a speculative bubble, with a lot of debt financed buying that needs to unwind (China put some brakes on this debt financing by individuals, a couple months ago, and the market has dropped since then) -- I don't have a handle on what level the market should be at.

    Finally, oil needs to reverse.

    Generally, so far I believe this drop in the US to be more event driven than a technical correction (I do realize technicals are important). I almost went 100% cash a couple weeks ago, or three, but did not as I had other life events to focus on. It is sufficient to say that if the market does stabilize now, it will have been good that the event was quick.

    jack

  • luckijack1 luckijack1 Aug 25, 2015 8:15 AM Flag

    Wow, futures up 600 points. What is really good is that oil is up, oil needs to stabilize and reverse to the upside. I still think the China economy worry is being oversold by Blue Meany Hatchet Hedge Fund men everywhere. Shanghai market really needed a major correction from the over-speculation there.

    If the market here goes up anywhere near that 600 points, and stabilizes, these few days experience are going to add to the perception that the market is rigged.

    After yesterday, I have less than 10 grand cash. There were buys everywhere.

    good luck,

    jack

  • luckijack1 luckijack1 Aug 24, 2015 7:37 PM Flag

    freerobert,

    I got stability here, but it took a very very stiff martini.

    The market, well, is off its medication. This is the most interesting fast downturn in my lifetime, which I attribute to enhanced program trading and market manipulation. Now, I'm not saying some sort of correction was completely unneeded, but the the speed and the magnitude, quite large and unpresented. I will bet that within 2 years we will see a book on it, how this market was manipulated at this very point in time.

    jack

  • luckijack1 luckijack1 Aug 24, 2015 7:18 PM Flag

    I used to be smart, at least that was the rumor. Being smart is a tough road, and so I decided to rely on luck.

    jack

  • luckijack1 luckijack1 Aug 24, 2015 6:58 PM Flag

    Krill, I think he was. And as you know, he's a lot smarter than we are........

    jack

  • Both here and the market in general. Wow.

    In the $3's again here. ???????? I did a bit of reading, found absolutely nothing of substance (key word is substance) to suggest these preferred shares will be wiped out or bailed in for the recap.

    I bought back in here.

    We are living in interesting market times.

    jack

  • luckijack1 luckijack1 Aug 24, 2015 5:36 PM Flag

    that's good. That means at least 3 of us were buying today! (I thought I might be the only one)

    IBB looks like it closed 20% down from the peak (400 to under 320). Based on the drop today, recovery, then drop -- it looks to me like indices were targeted. Kill the trackers, creates selling across the board in both funds and individual accounts, takes out stops. I don't margin, and I'd guess that's another shoe to drop. This drop today could not have happened 20 years ago (perhaps even 10 or 15), certainly an artifact of markets being run almost completely computer trading.

    Lotsa fear. Not sure on the substance behind it, both China and the oil markets. I need to do a bit more reading on China, my initial look at data suggests China not all that weak (and it was never as strong as some felt it was a couple years ago).

    Well, I think it is martini time,

    jack

  • Reply to

    Had a target of $6.....

    by krill66 Aug 24, 2015 2:18 PM
    luckijack1 luckijack1 Aug 24, 2015 3:07 PM Flag

    That rundown on the market, and ZIOP and other bios this am, then the run back up, now dropping back, well that left a trading vacuum that will be used for short covering here at ZIOP. They've scared of, pretty much, new buyers. The rundown that we've seen the last week or so could not have happened without the Internet -- the net a vehicle spreading news, hope, and fear faster than ever before.

    I'm slowly rolling from much trading, will end it mid-2016 when my wife retires. Bios are tough, yes, and I will say that ZIOP definitely good enough to now sit on. I've been trading in and out thus far. Picked up share today, may add some, then sell half on a bounce.

    good luck,

    jack

  • Reply to

    Had a target of $6.....

    by krill66 Aug 24, 2015 2:18 PM
    luckijack1 luckijack1 Aug 24, 2015 2:31 PM Flag

    krill, you're just like the pumpers but on the other side, looking at whatever the current price is and then spinning a lower number (pumpers spinning a higher number).

    The market now has been softened greatly, this off course help the short side move the stock. The huge drop in indices early now set the stage up for the market not going back up much, maybe sitting awhile. The good think about a large drop is that it might keep small investors from selling further, choosing instead to just sit it out.

    The China economy "woes" driving market jitters is for the most part a false narrative, sure China has slowed a bit but is not retreating at all. I have my own concerns about China, but that's further out in time, right now China is being used to support driving down all the markets.

    jack

  • luckijack1 by luckijack1 Aug 24, 2015 12:39 PM Flag

    I shoulda added more this am.

    Stock is back to where it would be had LRE not delayed that vote (which was just protocol) and should not have resulted in VNR getting beat up.

    If this goes up anymore, you guys need to put someone on a news watch.

    jack

  • Reply to

    Entered at 6.03

    by ynot966813 Aug 21, 2015 2:24 PM
    luckijack1 luckijack1 Aug 21, 2015 6:01 PM Flag

    Good luck ynott. I got in a bit earlier, have sold, bought, sold, and today added a good block to hold. I'm also buying the preferred here, along with BBEPP preferred, and looking at a couple others.

    Right now they are just manipulating/shorting oil prices down, don't know when it will stop. In normal times, OPEC would put the brakes on, but in this instance I think Saudi Arabia is lying about holding prices to stop high cost production but instead is playing political games with respect to the Middle East (with the USA, and involving Iran, Russis, Syria) and, if so, they might not put the brakes on trading.

    jack

  • Reply to

    Down almost 1/2 in Aug....

    by krill66 Aug 21, 2015 2:40 PM
    luckijack1 luckijack1 Aug 21, 2015 3:32 PM Flag

    The recent downdraft was the market and also XON (which I noted yesterday in XON Offering). And XON up nicely today -- ZIOP looking more and more like coatailing XON. And $14 to $8 is not half it is 57% -- I personally look at it about $13.5 to 8.5 (a little less, but generally ignore intraday and peaks), which is under 40% down. Don't get me wrong, that is a ton down.

    I do believe this is worst market downturn I've ever seen with not that much strong evidence for the drop. China I see as quite a problem, not right now, but I am quite sure they cannot manage much of a slowdown in the economy. Oil right now is the big burning gorilla -- For those of you who look at trading, sometimes the indices are levered down to short the open, it cost less to short the futures than you can make the first few hours; Well, trading crude has similar plays, and I've wondered if we have some hedge funds driving oil down and then trading stocks, currencies, etc. the past few weeks.

    jack

  • luckijack1 luckijack1 Aug 20, 2015 7:52 PM Flag

    Well, he's a smart man. Sells shares as they move up, and can use the proceeds to buy options anytime. You've seen him in presentations; he's certainly not the sort to play market games.

    jack

  • Reply to

    Dividend Announcement

    by rjcrystal43 Aug 20, 2015 4:12 PM
    luckijack1 luckijack1 Aug 20, 2015 6:34 PM Flag

    So, when do you expect to panic? (just kidding) Good post, you are correct, they will cover the divi, certainly if oil stays near/above $40 this year.

    The mergers. They will happen. The LRE delay just a legal protocol (for legal review).

    Me, I got out the raincoat to weather this storm.

    good luck,

    jack

  • luckijack1 by luckijack1 Aug 20, 2015 5:44 PM Flag

    (1) explains why xon dropped so far. I could not figure out why xon was dropping that much -- as some of you know, often these secondaries are hedge by shorting before the secondary.
    (2) Guesswork, but I think the offering will close above $45. Outside chance, really outside, for $50. This based on the recent trading there. In part it depend on the number of shares. The bookrunners for this are not topntch.
    (3) I have noted how XON and ZIOP have been in lockstep. Last 5 days. Last 11 trading days in a lock, even when they did not follow IBB; and, of course, beat up more than IBB.
    (4) with the offering, will ZIOP break the lockstep with XON. Maybe. But I am convinced some of the large traders here alos in XON.
    (5) they better close that secondary quickly, in this market.

    (6) the good news, this is my XON entry time. I think they will surprise on the secondary, I've not keep track close enough, but I've been pretty good on guesstimating these secondaries (some are bad, some are quite good, NVAX which I have a large stake in, now buying back sold shares there, had 3 secondaries since Sept 2013 that really were good for the stock, which is pretty rare).

    jack

  • luckijack1 luckijack1 Aug 20, 2015 3:49 PM Flag

    So far I dont' see this as a major correction, but bio indices are down about 11% from highs. The correction I see so far for the most part is a combo of profit taking and shorting down the higher flying stocks (like ZIOP). Last few days the shorters have really hit these bios, a list of em. (I'm still looking for entry to XON.)

    Oil needs to hold. It really needs a bounce, but it's kinda like ZIOP where the only buyers who will bounce it are shorts. On economics, there really isn't anything going on (cept fear of things) that warrants some sort of major corrrection.

    And, lastly, from John Maynard Keynes: "The market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent."

    jack

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