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Xinyuan Real Estate Co., Ltd. Message Board

lucky_lenny_1964 135 posts  |  Last Activity: Mar 28, 2015 7:52 AM Member since: Mar 5, 2005
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  • lucky_lenny_1964 lucky_lenny_1964 Mar 28, 2015 7:52 AM Flag

    my understanding is this is 100% of the short position.

  • Reply to

    It's too bad . .

    by kravin_somhead Mar 27, 2015 8:42 PM
    lucky_lenny_1964 lucky_lenny_1964 Mar 28, 2015 7:38 AM Flag

    I like Pershing Square's weekly return disclosures & overall market returns. What puzzles me is just how wrong this incredibly brilliant company can be on herbalife. The short sellers have thrown everything they have at Herbalife; including the kitchen sink. HLF is still standing and going strong. Then again, Ackman had similar track record of success at Gotham Partners. Then in 2002, Gotham Partners imploded over one ill-fated golf course investment. Could history be repeating itself? I just don't see how Pershing Square closes out their short position in Herbalife without some serious losses and possible liquidation of their hedge fund.

  • lucky_lenny_1964 by lucky_lenny_1964 Mar 28, 2015 7:30 AM Flag

    In the battle betwen Ackman & Icahn, has anyone looked at their investment track records? If so, you'll see Icahn has a lifetime of investment success. Ackman, on the other hand, investment failure. If you google on "bill ackman gotham partners," you'll see Ackman's previous hedge fund, Gotham Partners, once worth $300 million, became defunct in 2002 over ill-fated investments in golf courses. Ackman even tried diverting monies from healthy businesses to the golf courses; but the minority shareholders sued to prevent the diversion of funds. Gotham partners was subsequently wound down in 2003. At a minimum, it shows Ackman ehxibited reckless behavior. One bad investment should never be able to sink an entire portfolio. In 2004, Ackman was able to start back up under Pershing Square Capital Management. In 2012, Pershing Square started shorting Herbalife. Given Ackman's failed track record at Gotham, Herbalife should do very well.

  • I'm not sure the short sellers have covered very many shares. As of 3/13/15, Herbalife's 32.8 mill share short position was the 2nd highest it's ever been. It's also up slightly from the 32.5 mill short positoin as of 2/27/15. Per 4Q14 results, HLF only had 90.8 mill shs o/s diluted. If upcoming results are any good, Icahn's prediction of the “mother of all short squeezes" may finally become a reality.

  • I'm not sure the short sellers have covered very many shares. As of 2/27/15, Herbalife's 32.5 mill share short position was the 2nd highest it's ever been. Per 4Q14 results, HLF only had 90.8 mill shs o/s diluted. Per WSJ, HLF is the 13th most heavily shorted stock as a % of the float. . . 39.6% of the float is shorted. If upcoming results are any good, things could start to get interesting. I see Icahn's prediction of the “mother of all short squeezes" becoming a reality thanks to the short sellers. I'm hoping 1Q15 results are half-way decent.

  • If the FTC clears Herbalife & says they were missled by Pershing Square, then Pershing Square will definitely be subject to lawsuit. Herbalife could sue for the costs of defending themselves against fictitious complaints filed with the FTC. Investors who lost money in HLF stock could sue for market losses. Basically, if Pershing is shown to have made false statements; or manipulated others to make false statements, and those false statements caused HLF stock to tank, then Pershing is definitely on the hook for investor losses. Once the plaintiffs issued subpoenas to the firms Pershing hired to write the fictitious complains to the FTC, it would be game over.

  • lucky_lenny_1964 lucky_lenny_1964 Mar 23, 2015 11:00 PM Flag

    The two analysts they had on were terribly ill-informed... the one guy mentioned all these investigations that aren't even goin on.

  • lucky_lenny_1964 by lucky_lenny_1964 Mar 23, 2015 10:41 PM Flag

    Here's my challenge to the shorts... Please provide one single case history that will cause Herbalife to be shut down for being a pyramid scheme. Don't cite some phantom land scandal where investors were simply defrauded. Please support your charges against HLF with one case of a seemingly legitimate MLM being shut down. You can't. As long as other multi-level marketing companies are able to operate freely; such as Amway, Avon and Tupperware, it seems highly unlikely that HLF would be singled out as having an illegal sales network or pyramid scheme going on. Or if you know the reason for why HLF will be found to be an illegal pyramid scheme, cite the case and source for your assertion.

  • There was a lot of chatter about whether Herbalife really owns the cash on their balance sheet. Per article in WSJ... Herbalife can easily bring their foreign cash to the U.S. ". . . if a company brings money back to the U.S., or lays plans to do so, it owes the Internal Revenue Service the difference between the foreign taxes paid on the sum and the U.S. tax rate, which is almost always higher. And it must book the tax on its accounting statements." Basically, America's higher tax rate would be added to the repatriated profits; but the funds could be brought back to the U.S. Then again, since Herbalife is based in the Cayman Islands, not sure this even matters.

  • If I were an investor in Pershing Square, I'd be asking about Ackman's track record. Ackman has a track record of good results followed by disastrous losses which overwhelms the earlier profits. If you google on "bill ackman gotham partners," you'll see Ackman's previous hedge fund, Gotham Partners, once worth $300 million, became defunct in 2002 over ill-fated investments in golf courses. Ackman even tried diverting monies from healthy businesses to the golf courses; but the minority shareholders sued to prevent the diversion of funds. Gotham partners was subsequently wound down in 2003. At a minimum, it shows Ackman ehxibited reckless behavior. In 2004, Ackman was able to start back up under Pershing Square Capital Management. In 2012, Pershing Square started shorting Herbalife. Given Ackman's failed track record at Gotham, investors should question the size of Pershing's Herbalife short bet.

  • Reply to

    Debt over $1.8 billion now

    by skellsmother Mar 21, 2015 7:03 PM
    lucky_lenny_1964 lucky_lenny_1964 Mar 22, 2015 8:55 AM Flag

    Herbalife's debt load is very managable. The Board made the decision to take on debt to retire shares. If you strip away one-time issues such as Venezueala, HLF makes tons of money & is very much cash flow positive. As of 12/31/14, HLF reflects about $730 mill of cash & receivables. So yes, $1.7 bill of long term debt may seem like a lot, but Herbalife makes about $400 mill/yr. As long as HLF remains cash flow positive, I'm not so much worried about the debt. Herbalife also has newer & more efficient factories coming online. In summary, short of some type of implosion, the debt level is very manageable.

  • lucky_lenny_1964 lucky_lenny_1964 Mar 21, 2015 8:25 PM Flag

    I've been writing, calling & pestering FTC Chairperson Edith Ramirez to close down Herbalife. I know the Hedge Fund managers are also on her case. As evidenced by HLF's share price decline from its highs, I think she may be finally listening to us. To successfully destroy Herbalife, the Federal Government has to do its part & step in and crush all the investors. Short sellers have helped to expose HLF's $5 billion/yr of fraudulent sales. Ms. Ramirez has to get with the times & do something already!!!

  • It appears the FTC is coming to their senses & realize they've been played for fools by the short sellers. The short sellers have wagered they could get the Gov't to shut down herbalife. I think the jig is up. Between all the manufactured complaints provided to the Gov't; along with countless meetings & reviews, the FTC is telling the short sellers they're not going to facilitate the trumped up charges. What took the FTC this long to come to their senses I don't know. I'm just glad they did. Get ready for the mother of all short squeezes.

  • lucky_lenny_1964 by lucky_lenny_1964 Mar 20, 2015 11:28 AM Flag

    Is the jig up? Is it possible that now when the FTC is called by the short sellers & their reps, they're viewed differently? If so, the short sellers may properly realize the FTC is not shutting down Herbalife. In which case, the shorts are going to try covering. I say "try" because with 30+ mill shares shorted; and more shares owned by 13-D filers than are outstanding; the shorts will not easily cover. Get ready for the mother of all short squeezes.

  • Reply to

    Diff between Mary Kay and HLF .....

    by rogersenergy Mar 19, 2015 10:33 AM
    lucky_lenny_1964 lucky_lenny_1964 Mar 20, 2015 9:28 AM Flag

    I'm living proof that HLF's products are healthy; taste great and they really help you lose weight. I've come across countless others who have tried various products and believe Herbalife works the best. And I'm only a customer. I'm not a distributor.

  • Reply to

    shorts are in trouble

    by lucky_lenny_1964 Jan 16, 2015 1:37 PM
    lucky_lenny_1964 lucky_lenny_1964 Mar 20, 2015 8:56 AM Flag

    Per my post above from 1/16/15, I predicted Herbalife's shares start going higher after 23 Feb '15. Shares now at $37.94. Shorts are going to have to start covering after today. Hopefully, HLF's shorts come to their senses. If so, shares can move appreciably higher.

  • There was some selling today. My advice to the longs is to hold on & wait for at least a 15 or 20 p/e ratio. Quick review of Herbalife's earnings for last 3 yrs shows that shares should move higher, e.g., for '14, net inc $308.7 mill ... for '13, net inc $527.5 mill... for '12, net inc $464.0 mill... on a net income per share diluted basis, it works out to $3.40 in '14; $4.91 in '13 & $3.94 in '12... Given these great results; and the favorable developments regarding the FTC investigation, my advice to the longs is to be patient and wait for a much higher share price.

  • Reply to

    I don't get the new plants

    by lucky_lenny_1964 Mar 15, 2015 10:23 AM
    lucky_lenny_1964 lucky_lenny_1964 Mar 16, 2015 10:12 PM Flag

    thanks

  • lucky_lenny_1964 by lucky_lenny_1964 Mar 16, 2015 9:09 PM Flag

    Today's stock price action was unbelievable. After reading the earnings release, I though stock was going up at least 20 or 30%. Yet the stock dropped almost 20%. Given CXDC's earnings, book value & prospects going forward, I'm going to hang on to the shares a while longer. My advice to the longs is to be patient. Traders are doing some crazy things. When the dust settles, China XD Plastics should be much higher. In the meantime, patience is key.

  • Reply to

    I don't get the new plants

    by lucky_lenny_1964 Mar 15, 2015 10:23 AM
    lucky_lenny_1964 lucky_lenny_1964 Mar 15, 2015 2:36 PM Flag

    i tried researching my question, but i'm even more confused. Could someone explain what this means... in simple terms "The Company develops its products using its technology through its wholly-owned research laboratory, Heilongjiang Xinda Enterprise Group Macromolecule Material Research Center Company Limited (Xinda Group Material Research). The Company provides specially engineered plastics and environment-friendly plastics for use in oilfield equipment, mining equipment, vessel propulsion systems and power station equipment. The Company operates three manufacturing bases in Harbin, Heilongjiang in the People’s Republic of China."

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