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NetApp, Inc. Message Board

luckymonkey77 3 posts  |  Last Activity: Dec 14, 2014 1:01 PM Member since: Oct 2, 2008
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  • As of 2013, Lantus sales were $7B or about 17% of all 2013 sales (all products) for SNY*, and SNY has a total market cap of roughly $120B. So based on sales alone, Lantus is responsible for about 17% of SNY's market cap, or about $20B.

    The market cap generated by Afrezza sales, shared by SNY and MNKD, could be higher than the $20B of market cap generated by Lantus for two reasons:

    1. The price-to-sales ratio the stock market awards Afrezza could be higher because investors covet growth, and Afrezza sales could show high growth compared to Lantus.

    2. Total sales of Afrezza could project to be far high than with Lantus. It is reasonable to believe that a needle with relatively slow insulin will be vastly outsold by Afrezza.

    So the $20B of market cap generated by Lantus sales could be much larger for Afrezza. Of course, MNKD only gets 35% of that market cap, but it's pretty easy to see MNKD growing substantially from here.

    Just for pie-in-the-sky fun, IF the market cap generated by Afrezza sales is 3X that of Lantus, then MNKD could be worth $20B x 3 x 0.35 = $21B, or about 10X the current MNKD price. If Afrezza does ONLY as well as Lantus, then MNKD could be worth $20B x 1 x .35 = $7B, or about 3.5X the current price.

    This ignores additional Technosphere products.

    *for SNY sales figures, see: endotsanofitocom/investors/key_facts_figures/net_sales/net_salesdotaspx#para_2

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • luckymonkey77 luckymonkey77 Oct 9, 2014 7:05 PM Flag

    Al Mann by himself has more money than all of Karp's funds. If money equals brains, then Al wins by a landslide.

  • luckymonkey77 by luckymonkey77 Oct 8, 2014 1:02 PM Flag

    Today, Stephens lowered its estimates on Hercules Offshore and cut its price target on the stock to $4.50, citing valuation and Gulf of Mexico softness. The firm maintains its Overweight rating on the stock.

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