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First Solar, Inc. Message Board

luckyone581 438 posts  |  Last Activity: 7 hours ago Member since: Feb 10, 2008
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  • KNDI generated a red weekly close but it was not an unexpected event as the recent double low at 6.10/6.11 had not yet seen a successful retest. The stock did close in the lower half of the week’s trading range, suggesting further downside below last week’s low at 6.59 will be seen this week. Nonetheless, in spite of the strong drop in the indexes on Friday, the stock stood up well, having just slightly broken one minor to perhaps decent intra-week support at 6.71 but then generating enough buying to close the stock 29 points higher than the low of the week and only 7 points below the mid-point of the week’s trading range, suggesting that even though further downside to the 6.50-6.53 level could be seen this week, there is enough buying interest to suggest the stock might survive the onslaught of selling being seen in the indexes.

    The stock did gap down on Friday between 6.97 and 6.91 and as such the 6.91 level is considered resistance, especially considering that there is a previous but minor intra-week resistance at that level as well. Additional resistance is found at 7.18 that if broken would give the bulls an edge. Probabilities slightly favor the bears this week but likely on a minimal basis and only for a further drop down to 6.50-6.53. Stop loss should remain at 6.43 because if broken, the probabilities of the stock heading down to the $5 level will increase, in spite of the decent support at the double low at 6.10/6.11.

  • luckyone581 by luckyone581 11 hours ago Flag

    I just finished doing the chart evaluation on the indexes and I did not discover anything that would change, ameliorate, or positively affect the market. In fact, considering the Death Crosses in the indexes that I have been talking about for the past 4 months, the charts are now strongly suggesting that the kind of action seen in 2001 (when the first Death Cross to the downside occurred) is becoming a likely scenario. In 2001, the Death Cross in the DOW occurred 12 weeks before the index actually started to head lower (the Cross occurred this year 14 weeks ago) and on that occasion the DOW dropped 1518 points once the downside got started. The index then bounced above the previous high but then got into a 20 month drop that took the index down 3500 points before a bottom was found.

    The Brexit news is a game changer that unfortunately for the bulls the full outcome won't be clearly known for anywhere up to 2 years, meaning that the possibilities of the same kind of scenario as seen in 2001 are high.

    On a shorter term basis (like this coming week), the damage done to the charts is extensive and not likely to be negated this week as the fundamental negatives will not change. In fact, the fact that the traders had to react to the news in just 1-day before the weekend came up, does suggest that more (not less) selling will happen this week.

    In addition, all the indexes have some very pivotal support levels now close-by and if those get broken the probabilities will favor some panic selling and knowing how the traders think and how the market works, it is likely that the traders will "push" for those breaks as the market is set perfectly for something of consequence to occur and for the traders to take advantage of it.

    Downside objective in the DOW could easily be the 16333 level to be seen over the next 2 weeks. That is almost 1100 points lower.

    The opening on Monday could be a big clue. If the NAZ gaps down (especially below support at 4678), it could get ugly

  • Reply to

    I keep accumulating

    by azbo2803 Jun 16, 2016 1:13 PM
    luckyone581 luckyone581 Jun 16, 2016 6:24 PM Flag

    Actually, the shorts are thanking you! They have been making profits while you accumulate. Their profits are NOW, your positions are still hopes. They can go out and spend the money while your money is un-spendable at this time.

  • Reply to

    My best guess when the move happens

    by gpls72 Jun 16, 2016 1:54 PM
    luckyone581 luckyone581 Jun 16, 2016 6:21 PM Flag

    "WHEN Volume averages 1 million shares for 10 days"

    That is almost like saying "when the Moon turns blue..........." What everyone would like to know is when that will happen!

  • FCX generated a negative reversal week, having gone above and below last week’s trading range and closing near the lows of the week, suggesting further downside below last week’s low at 10.26 will be seen this week. With multiple lows (4) being found between 10.21 and 10.29, the probabilities are high that level will be broken this week and a drop down to at least the bottom of the $10 demilitarized zone at 9.70 seen. By the same token and in looking at the chart, there is no recent support found below 10.21 until the 9.10 level is reached, suggesting there is high probability that the stock within the next 1-3 weeks will reach the desired entry point for a purchase.

    It is highly likely that the 200-day MA, currently at 9.20, is the main target but given that the line is only important on a daily closing basis, intra-week drops could be seen that would take the stock down to at most the 7.76 level but more probably down to 8.76. Such action would be considered the construction of the right shoulder of the H&S formation.

    I would venture an educated guess that FCX will find strong buying interest somewhere between 8.47 and 9.33 with a higher probability of support being found near the high of that range than the low of that range.

    Purchases of FCX between 8.48 and 9.34 and using a stop loss at 7.65 and having a 24.74 long-term objective will offer a 9-1 risk/reward ratio.

    My rating on the trade is a 4 (on a scale of 1-5 with 5 being the highest).

    This is a standing mention, meaning that if the desired entry points are not reached this week but no rally of consequence is seen, it will be just as good the following week or the week after.

    My name is Tony and I have been trading the market for 37 years. I was a broker/trader/chart analyst for Merrill Lynch, Pru-Bache and Dean Witter in the 80's. I offer a service where I give mentions on stocks of my choice with desired entry points. stop loss points and objectives based on support/resistance levels.

  • KND Friday Closing Price – 7.10

    KNDI has been in a sideways trading range between $6 and $8 for the past 6 months but for the past 18 weeks the bears have tried to push the stock down to test or break the 32-month low at 5.05 but failed and in the process a double low was built at the 6.10/6.11 and from which a short-term breakout occurred last week when the bulls were able to generate a daily close above the 6.97 level that had been considered a decent and pivotal resistance area. As such, it seems likely that the stock is back on its way to test the $8 resistance area.

    KNDI generated a spike rally this past week but the bulls were unable to maintain the rally and the stock closed in the lower half of the week’s trading range, suggesting further downside below last week’s low at 6.85 will be seen this week. By the same token, the 6.53 to 6.75 level has been now established as a minor to decent support level that is unlikely to be broken unless the bears have gained new ammunition with which to break the double low at 6.10/6.11 and test the $5, which they have not been able to do for the past 18 weeks.

    As such, an opportunity has arisen for a purchase of KNDI that offers a decent probability rating with a viable risk/reward ratio, using levels that have been repeatedly seen this year.

    In addition, with the probability that the index market will be making a new all-time high later on this year, which in turn would likely carry KNDI higher as well, it is a trade that has “potential” for a higher profit over the mid-term (3-6 months).

    Purchases of KNDI between 6.70 and 6.80 and using a stop loss at 6.43 and having a minimum objective of reaching at least the 200-day MA, currently at 7.95, or even perhaps up to the 200-week MA, currently at 9.05, will offer a 3 to 6-1 risk/reward ratio.

    My rating on the trade is a 3 (on a scale of 1-5 with 5 being the highest).

  • Reply to

    Congratulations Bulls!

    by luckyone581 Jun 8, 2016 2:49 PM
    luckyone581 luckyone581 Jun 11, 2016 3:56 PM Flag

    By the way thirsty, I have traded KNDI 4 times

    9/30 (long) at 5.07 out on 10/16 at 8.02 Profit of $295 per 100 shares (63% profit in just 3 weeks!!)

    10/19 (short) at 8.98 out on 10.20 at 9.34. Loss of $36 per 100 shares

    10/21 (short) at 9.34 ;and again on 10/28 (short) at 9.90 out on 1/14 at 8.14. Profit of $120 and of $176 per 100 shares (12% and 18% profit in 2 months).

    Total profit for my KNDI trades of $5.55 per share which is a 78% profit based on the price of the stock.

    How are those results for a BOOR trading eh?

  • luckyone581 by luckyone581 Jun 11, 2016 3:39 PM Flag

    This week you will have your opportunity to "load up" on KNDI for the best opportunity you have had since October of last year.

    KNDI is likely to get down to the support at 6.70-6.75 this coming week and IF the stock is healthy fundamentally and the indexes don't break down totally (not likely), this may be your last chance to buy the stock at these prices.

    Keep in mind though, that if the stock gets below 6.70, it will probably head down to the recent low at 6.11 and if that happens it will generate a triple low at that price and multiple lows (more than two) are usually broken, meaning that for those of you that are traders, you can buy the stock between 6.70 and 6.80 and use a sensitive stop loss at 6.46 and have a risk/reward ratio trade that is tradeable. Even with only an 8.00 objective, a purchase at 6.75 will offer a risk of only $29 for a pickup of $125, which is a 4-1 risk/reward ratio.

    In fact, as I am writing this I am thinking that I may do the trade as well.

    This is your last chance, if and when the stock is as bullish as you think it is.

  • Reply to

    Congratulations Bulls!

    by luckyone581 Jun 8, 2016 2:49 PM
    luckyone581 luckyone581 Jun 11, 2016 3:21 PM Flag

    "One month, one stock: KNDI"

    Right, like that is what determines your knowledge and success. "Even a blind squirrel can find an acorn on occasion".

    Your posts aren't even interesting and much less informative.

    Critics, especially the bad ones, are people that cannot do it themselves so they try to bring others down to their level by panning them. Other than this 1 month of success with KNDI, having made 15% (yipee) what are your credentials for even opening your mouth? At least I can show "consistent" success that others can depend on. What is your claim to fame? 15% of profit 1 month? Gimme a break.

  • Reply to

    Congratulations Bulls!

    by luckyone581 Jun 8, 2016 2:49 PM
    luckyone581 luckyone581 Jun 10, 2016 4:03 PM Flag

    "I made 15% with KNDi in the last 30 days while you say on the sidelines making calls"

    Below are my results for this year:

    Status of account/portfolio for 2016, as of 5/31

    Profit of $9932 using 100 shares traded per mention.

    And here are my results for the last 9 years.

    Status of account for 2007: Profit of $9,758 per 100 shares after losses and commissions were subtracted.
    Status of account for 2008: Profit of $14,704 per 100 shares after losses and commissions were subtracted.
    Status of account for 2009: Profit of $7,523 per 100 shares after losses and commissions were subtracted.
    Status of account for 2010: Profit of $24,045 per 100 shares after losses and commissions were subtracted.
    Status of account for 2011: Profit of $3,616 per 100 shares after losses and commissions were subtracted.
    Status of account for 2012: Profit of $3,399 per 100 shares after losses and commissions were subtracted.
    Status of account for 2013: Profit of $15,886 per 100 shares after losses and commissions were subtracted.
    Status of account for 2014: Profit of $21,221 per 100 shares after losses and commissions were subtracted.
    Status of account for 2015: Profit of $19,190 per 100 shares after losses and commissions were subtracted.

    I did not sit on the sidelines for anything!

  • Reply to

    What's your take, Lucky ?

    by arkesteyn Jun 9, 2016 8:46 AM
    luckyone581 luckyone581 Jun 10, 2016 3:35 PM Flag

    Right now most stocks are moving based on what the overall market is doing and KNDI is not an exception, at least at the moment.

    I wish I knew what the overall market is going to do, and more importantly "when", but the reality is that I am not the only one that doesn't know as traders are trading in a very confused manner with the same lack of knowledge of what is going to happen as I have.

    The probabilities favor the market heading higher and oil heading higher to $70 but will they do it now or in 3 months, 6 months, 12 months? Will they go down first and then rally or go up first and then correct? Those are the Million dollar questions that everyone is asking. The short term is the big question!

    I have no answers today. I will probably know more next week, probably after the FOMC rate decision meeting on Wednesday, but today I cannot answer you.

    Regarding KNDI specifically, I will say the same thing I said the other day. The probabilities favor the stock trading between $6.75 and 8.00/8.30 for the next 1-3 months. Nonetheless, if the indexes and oil have another decent correction (very possible with oil), the stock may head back down and perhaps even below 6.75. If oil builds a beachhead above $50, and heads up to $60/$70 and the SPX makes a new all time high above 2134 then everything will rally, including KNDI.

    By the same token, the 200-week MA is currently at 7.90 with KNDI and that is a line that will probably require some fundamentally positive news for the company, not only the indexes and oil rallying.

    I will know more next week.

  • Reply to

    Congratulations Bulls!

    by luckyone581 Jun 8, 2016 2:49 PM
    luckyone581 luckyone581 Jun 10, 2016 3:17 PM Flag

    "you know nothing of the person to whom you responded. You just made accusations and got it all wrong".

    First of all, if you are going to make a statement as you did earlier (you have mud on your reputation because you were so off on your analysis) you show your level of knowledge regarding trading. In fact, if you actually look at the chart you will see that the bulls were unable to break above 6.97, on a daily closing basis, for a total of 8 days though they got up to that level almost every day, and were only able to break above with the "help" of the indexes rallying above their resistance levels. As such, my analysis of that resistance area was SPOT ON. As such, I may not know who you are but I do know your level of knowledge/sophistication regarding charts and charting. I was not wrong in my accusation because if you knew you would have never made the statement you made.

    I do need to remind you that I do chart analysis of support and resistance levels and go one step more by stating the probabilities of direction of the stock based on past chart performance, which in the case of KNDI is down. I have clearly stated over and over again that I am NOT a fundamentalist and that my evaluations are chart based only. From there, I trade based on the probabilities and use money management, such as risk/reward ratios that are beneficial to limiting my losses and keeping the profits to at least 4 times more than I risk, all based on the chart support and resistance levels.

    Once again, I may not know who you are but your statement showed a lack of knowledge on what I do, or ability to understand the mentality of it.

    You do need to go to chart trading school!

  • Reply to

    Congratulations Bulls!

    by luckyone581 Jun 8, 2016 2:49 PM
    luckyone581 luckyone581 Jun 9, 2016 3:02 PM Flag

    You are the one that needs to learn what a chartist does. We do not predict anything, we are chart readers that interpret what the charts are saying. The charts can turn around based on news and other factors that no one has any control over. When reading a chart, it tells you what the probabilities are of the stock going in one direction or the other, it does not give us any guarantees.

    Knowing the probabilities and the levels where support and resistance are found allows us to trade with an edge over people like you that are totally clueless about what anything means. At least a chartist knows when he is right or wrong and can make decisions to add positions or get out.

    As far as admitting that "I was way off on this one" that is not an option since I am not predicting anything, just giving chart information on what levels of support and resistance are important and trading accordingly, using risk/reward levels of at least 4-1 on each trade, meaning that I can be WRONG as much as 80% of the time and still make money. Isn't making money the goal????

    You guys that are not chartists always think it is all about ego (I got it RIGHT, Yipee!!). That is not a goal of a chartist as we are wrong often. Our goal is to make more money that we lose and for the past 10 years I have been extremely successful at it. I have not had a losing year yet, after losses and commissions are subtracted.

    As such, you need to go back to school and learn about trading before you open your mouth because your thinking will bring you more pain than profit over the long run.

  • luckyone581 by luckyone581 Jun 8, 2016 2:49 PM Flag

    Congratulations bulls, after 9 days of inability to close above the 6.97 level, with the help of the index market and the renewed belief that the market is going to have a "melt up", the bulls finally were able to make it happen.

    The stock is now likely to move up to the 7.90 to 8.24 level where stronger resistance levels are found. To begin with, the 200-day MA is currently at 7.90, the 12-week high is at 8.24 and 2 decent weekly closes at 8.04/8.06 from August 2013 and from March of this year are found.

    The mini breakout also suggests that the 6.70/6.75 level will now become short-term pivotal support and likely to hold up unless the index market fails to breakout as most analysts are expecting it to do so.

    Nonetheless bulls, don't get all excited as this is more the market pulling you up than the stock itself moving up. As such, upside is likely to be somewhat limited. Nonetheless, if the bulls can generate a green weekly close (Fridays) above 8.04, it will generate enough buying interest for a rally up to the 9.10 level where the 200-week MA is currently at. That is a line that in order for it to be broken, the bulls will need positive news regarding the company itself (not the index market) to break.

    Nonetheless, right now bask in the positive action being seen. You certainly have been waiting a long time for something positive to occur and it has now happened. Hopefully, the index market won't fall flat on its face.

    Watch oil on Friday. If it closes above 49.63 (presently at 51.04) it will be a breakout that will likely carry it to the $70 level. If that occurs, the indexes are likely to go higher.

  • Reply to

    Chart Update KNDI

    by luckyone581 May 16, 2016 2:16 PM
    luckyone581 luckyone581 Jun 6, 2016 10:43 AM Flag

    Everything in some way is market dependent. Ever heard of words like Recession, Correction, Depression?

    Stocks are not necessarily tied in 1-1 with market moves all the time but do react to market conditions. Ever hear of the Asian markets reacting to the U.S. market or vice versa?

    This is especially true when a stock is not moving on its own. Traders look for whatever could affect the stock and move the stock off of that.

    You must not have been trading for very long but in the 39 years I have traded the market, the first thing I always look at is market condition and what is affecting the market and then look for what is moving the stock. You personally would be surprised to see how often stocks are affected by the overall market.

  • Reply to

    Chart Update KNDI

    by luckyone581 May 16, 2016 2:16 PM
    luckyone581 luckyone581 Jun 5, 2016 5:00 PM Flag

    KNDI is NOT dependent on the Jobs report but the market is and KNDI is dependent on the market. As such, your comment is idiotic.

    By the same token, your comment certainly puts you as a great addition to the KNDI message board. You fit in perfectly!

  • Reply to

    Chart Update KNDI

    by luckyone581 May 16, 2016 2:16 PM
    luckyone581 luckyone581 Jun 3, 2016 1:35 PM Flag

    I put out this information (about the 6.97 daily close resistance level) on May 19th and to this date the bulls have been unable to close above that level. Over the past 7 days, the stock has closed at 6.92, at 6.95, at 6.89, at 6.97, at 6.85, at 6.95 and today it is once again likely to close somewhere within than range BUT "not above it".

    Do you think the area has some importance? You BETCHA!!

    The fact that the bulls have failed for 7 straight days and now the indexes may start heading lower due to the surprisingly bad Jobs report, it is highly likely that KNDI will be heading lower as well.

    Charts do tell the story!!!

  • luckyone581 luckyone581 May 23, 2016 2:55 PM Flag

    I am always neutral on a company unless the charts state otherwise.

    Several weeks ago I stated that the chart formation suggested that the stock would fall down to the 4.58 level. Based on the recent double low at 6.10, the chart suggested that on a short-term chart basis, the stock would bounce up to the 6.93-6.97 level and that is what the stock has been doing. Should the stock close above 6.93-6.97 then the chart objective would change. Nonetheless, so far the only thing that has changed is the "short-term" objective of the stock heading up to 6.93-6.97 but not the longer term objective of 4.58.

    If the stock closes above 6.97, I will revise the longer term outlook.

  • luckyone581 luckyone581 May 20, 2016 10:56 AM Flag

    "Not wise to be short anymore"

    Why? Because YOU are dreaming about the possibility of a huge company collaborating with a small and insignificant company? and that they will announce it on Monday before the Deutche Conference? Why now? what catalyst is there for TSLA to even consider doing such a thing at this time? KNDI is but a tiny blip on the radar with a bad reputation and it looks more like a minnow with Eboli than a fish worthy of going after. TSLA has absolutely nothing to gain from such "collaboration". It is like saying that AMZN is going to collaborate with Joe Smith corner store (a Mom & Pop operation) to sell to all of the U.S..

    Give me a break, mentioning such a dream is pure fantasy and if you think anyone will "act" on that premise, you are hallucinating to the point that you should consider turning yourself in to the closest mental institution.

    How on earth does Yahoo allow these kinds of posts? These message boards should be for serious investors, not little kids "playing" on an kids investors board game.

  • Reply to

    luckyone

    by gradybrent May 19, 2016 9:42 AM
    luckyone581 luckyone581 May 19, 2016 1:36 PM Flag

    Check out "the oasis club" through any search engine

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