Since January 2007 I have offered a weekly charting service where I give up to 4 mentions every week on stocks that I feel offer good risk/reward ratios of at least 4-1 based on charts (not on money). The mentions come out on Sunday evening and include desired entry points, stop loss points and objectives.
In addition, I offer up to 4 chart evaluations per month on stocks of your choice.
A message board is also available where updates are given throughout the day as well as a daily recap. On the message board, I also offer new mentions during the week if an opportunity arises.
During this period of time I have not had a losing year yet (see below):
Status of account for 2007: Profit of $9,758 per 100 shares after losses and commissions were subtracted.
Status of account for 2008: Profit of $14,704 per 100 shares after losses and commissions were subtracted.
Status of account for 2009: Profit of $7,523 per 100 shares after losses and commissions were subtracted.
Status of account for 2010: Profit of $24,045 per 100 shares after losses and commissions were subtracted.
Status of account for 2011: Profit of $3,616 per 100 shares after losses and commissions were subtracted.
Status of account for 2012: Profit of $3,399 per 100 shares after losses and commissions were subtracted.
Status of account for 2013, as of 10/1
Profit of $13379 using 100 shares per mention (after commissions & losses)
If interested and want more information please visit my website called theoasisclub (dot) net.
Yes, I see that you can no longer click on my nick and be sent to my Yahoo Profile. Bad move by Yahoo, in my opinion.
Nonetheless, if you are interested you can go to "the oasis club . net" and get the information there.
Click on my nick and you will be sent to my personal profile. My email and website address is there. Send me an email and we can talk.
I did check the chart of SPWR. I would not change my positions in FLSR for SPWR as I believe that FSLR has better upside, but SPWR has a good chart and should be moving up to the $33 level. With the stock trading at $22.50, it does give you some good upside potential.
I will keep an eye on your stock. Thanks for bringing it to my attention.
FSLR has now gone above yesterday's high, making yesterday's low now a possible successful retest of the important support between $34 and $36. Nonetheless, the bulls need to get the stock to get above the most recent high at 38.07 and close above the 200-day MA, currently at 37.65. If they can accomplish all of that, I will then add positions on any dip back down to 37.50.
FCEL has been in a 6 year downtrend where the 200-week MA, currently at 1.50, has not been broken once, though it was tested for the first time 3 months ago.
A close above 1.52 tomorrow (Friday Weekly Close) will be a buy signal of great consequence that would likely push the stock up to the 2.50 level within 4 weeks.
It would then be likely that some kind of pullback and retest of support would occur with a drop down to the 2.00 level.
Nonetheless, this kind of a breakout (if it occurs) would likely cause the stock to move up to the $5 within 6-12 months.
Breakouts of the 200-week MA, especially after such a "long' time of being under the line are likely to generate a huge amount of short-covering in the first few weeks as well as establish at least a sideways market (likely) if not the beginning of a new bull trend.
With the stock having traded for 21 months between Oct08 and May10 between 2.50 and 5.00, the probabilities would be high that if the stock gets above 2.50 that it would trade in that range for some time thereafter.
It all starts this Friday. This earnings report should definitely cause the stock to rally up to the 1.50 level by tomorrow and if broken (now likely), it would be like the first domino falling that would cause a chain reaction to occur that would likely take the stock to 2.50 in short order.
My educated chart opinion.
All that needs to happen today is for the stock to close in the upper half of the day's trading range, which would be above 36.27. If that happen, the probabilities will favor the stock going above today's high at 36.98 tomorrow, which in turn would make today's low at 35.59 into a successful retest on the daily chart of the support found between $34 and $36.
I am a chartist and have been one for 37 years. In fact I was a chart analyst for Prudential Bache in the 80's. I have looked at the chart going back 10 years. There is not one single time in that time period that 27.02 has had "any" importance.
Support at 27.04? Where? From what? How did you come up with that level as the charts show NOTHING there?
The 50-week MA is at 35.50, the 100-week MA is at 31.90.
The lowest low for the past 5 months is at 35.14. There is a lot of support both from previous trading over a period of 5 months as well as psychologically at $30 and below that there is support at 25.51 and at 24.60.
So where did you come up with that price? Pulled it out of the air? Consulted a seer? Read the tea leaves?
Anyone that can read a chart knows that price is only in your imagination. Short and trying to generate more selling, is that it?
FSLR is not often tied in to what the indexes do. It is a stock that moves mostly on its own and not necessarily follows the overall market.
I have been trading for 37 years and I know how things work. My stop losses are mental 95% of the time. Where an important level of support is found that if broken would cause a strong and immediate reaction, I will put a hard stop and mention it to my subscribers, but that does not happen all that much.
I do not have enough information I can depend on to fundamentally evaluate any stock. As such, I follow the charts which show where the "people-in-the-know" are buying and selling, or where they bought and sold in the past. Doing that allows me to determine an entry point, a stop loss point and an objective that I can have some dependance on. Simply stated, looking at the charts gives me a road map that is not dependent on whatever feelings about the stock I have on any particular week.
The charts suggested that the stock would drop down to anywhere between 34.09 and 36.13. With today's low being 35.59, it does start to fulfill the downside objective, meaning the stock is now a likely better purchase than a sell as this is the level where the stock had important resistance before that became support when broken.
I am not going to discuss any fundamentals because everyone can come up with some fundamental reason for the stock going up, going down, or going nowhere and I am not a judge that can determine whose story is the best. I simply want to follow the big money and use good money management with trades that offer at least a 4-1 risk/reward ratios (based on the charts and not on money). This way, I can be wrong as much as 80% of the time and still break at least even. I have been doing this for 9 years and so far I have not had a losing year and at no time during the last 9 years did I bother to look at the fundamentals of any company! I just follow the big money and use good money management.
This was part of my newsletter mention this week:
On a chart basis, FSLR is on a short-term downtrend but still in a mid-term uptrend since the 50-week, currently at 34.65, has not been broken. Further downside will likely be seen this week based on the fact the stock closed on the lows of the week and below the 200-day MA, with a retest of the 50-week MA in mind. The break of the 200-day MA is not as important as it would otherwise be for the simple reasons that the stock has been "straddling" that line for the past 2 weeks, closing both slightly above and slightly below the line on several occasions, as well as from the fact that the 50-week MA is currently so close and likely more important and indicative than the 200-day. In addition, the breakout level from the 2-year sideways trend the stock was in from Feb12 to Feb13 is at 34.09 on a weekly closing basis and at 36.13 on a daily closing basis, meaning that the $34-$36 area is considered a decent support level as well.
To the upside, FSLR has some very minor resistance at 38.07 and a bit stronger at 40.14. Further minor resistance is found at 41.00 and then again at the 50-day MA, currently at 43.85. Additional resistance is found at the gap area up at 45.80, which is also where the 100-day MA is currently located. If that gap is closed and the stock closes above the MA line there, the $50 level would become a strong magnet likely to be reached soon thereafter. Resumption of the recent up-trend would likely cause the stock to get above the recent high at 59.00.
To the downside, FSLR shows support at 36.13, at 35.14, at 34.85 and at 34.09.
I do want to mention that if FSLR closes above 37.52 and rallies intra-week above 38.07, a small buy signal will be given on the daily chart. A rally above last week's high at 39.46 would do the same on the weekly chart. These are both points that can be used to add positions if able to purchase the stock below 36.13.
I purchased FSLR at 35.92. I am using a 33.90 stop loss and a 50.00 objective. I am risking $202 to pick up $1408 per 100 shares, which is a 7-1 risk/reward ratio.
Getting down to the $35 level was a high probability but this is an important support level on the charts and should hold. I am strongly bullish on this purchase.
I hate to say this but the stock is showing a bearish inverted flag formation with the flagpole being the drop from 15.24 to 10.52 and the flag is the trading range the last 10 days between 10.52 and 11.69. Objective of the flag if the bottom of the flag is broken at 10.52 is 7.00.
I am not saying the formation will be fulfilled as I do see the bears having a lot of problems getting the stock below 9.50 but the flag formation is presently built and the objective is valid based on the guidelines of flag formations. Just letting you know.
The one thing that is clear though, is that the bulls have been unable to generate any kind of meaningful rally after the big drop. The stock has traded sideways for 9 days and that is a big negative as it shows no buying interest is being seen.
A break above 11.69 will likely bring about a rally up to 12.50 where selling will likely be seen again. Nonetheless, if the bulls can't get above 11.69 in the next few days, the selling will return and push the stock down to at least the 9.50-9.70 level.
Hey, don't shoot the messenger, this is just charting 101.
Good Chart Traders use the weekly Moving Averages (50, 100, and 200) all the time. The key word though is "good" technicians.
The big people "in-the-know" (not us) would have already caused this support level here at $70 to break decisively if that was the case. If they have not done so yet, it means that it cannot even start to be talked about in the same sentence as Enron or Madoff.
If you check the charts of those stocks you will see what I mean.
You mentioning that at this time, is not only wild speculation without basis, but irresponsible as well.
You really should study chart history before you open your mouth to put out these type of comments out.
I don't disagree that further downside is the most probable scenario, but $44 is not a real target at this time. The 200-week MA is currently at 58.75 and that is a viable target if the stock breaks below 68.55, but it is highly unlikely that the stock will break that line without some tangible negative news. .
continued from previous message........
To the upside, AMT does show minor to decent resistance at the 50-week MA, currently at 75.90, which does include 2 previous intra-week highs of minor to decent consequence at 75.62 and at 76.22. Rallies up to $76 are highly likely to be seen if the support level holds up this coming week. Further resistance is found at the previous high of consequence seen a few weeks ago at 78.33 that is not likely to be broken unless some of the negative allegations are proven false.
With so much uncertainty around AMT right now, but no assurance of malfeasance yet known, there is a good possibility that the stock will trade within the parameters mentioned above for the next few weeks. With the stock trading now at support, a purchase would be the thing to do. Either way, whatever trade is done (buy or sell), the probability rating is low on either side.
AMT did close on the lows of the week on Friday and further downside below last week's low at 69.73 is expected to be seen this week, likely taking the stock down to the low 69's level where purchases can be considered that will offer small risk.
Purchases of AMT between 69.30 and 69.70 and using a stop loss at 68.55 and having a 75.90 objective will offer a 7-1 risk/reward ratio.
My rating on the trade is a 2.75 (on a scale of 1-5 with 5 being the highest).