I did short the stock on Monday at 180.75 per my newsletter mention.. Nonetheless, based on the fact that the stock did not follow through to the downside yesterday, after the spike down seen on Monday, and did close in the green yesterday. If the stock gets above yesterday's high at 173.94 and gets enough follow through to break a very minor resistance now found at 174.89, I will take a fast profit on the trade.
Keep in mind that I am a "trader" and if I can see on the charts that the stock is going to move from Point A and Point B and I can take advantage of that, I will.
The stock should have seen follow through yesterday and dropped down to the $167-$168 level where a bounce would have been expected. I was ready to take profits yesterday at that price. Nonetheless, since no follow through was seen and the stock closed in the green, it likely means the traders will try to take the stock back up to the 181.00 level where I would again look to go short. A break above 174.89 should cause the stock to move back up to the 181.00 level.
By the way, being short the stock going into earnings does not worry me. First of all, the chart suggests the probabilities have increased that the stock will go down in price (rather than up). Granted, stocks move on fundamental news and earnings is fundamental news that trumps charts. By the same token, charts usually show how the traders feel about what the stock is going to do taking into consideration that earnings is coming. Big traders usually have better information than any of us and I trust what they show me on the charts more than my own "personal" evaluation of the fundamentals.
In addition, I use diversification in my portfolio (6-10 stocks at all times), meaning that some earnings will help and some will not. It all comes out in the wash in the long run. Keep in mind that the stock has moved $40 since the last earnings. A good report could be factored in already.
BIDU extended the rally this week with the 7th new all-time high weekly close in a row. Nonetheless, like last week the bulls were unable to make a convincing statement that further upside will be seen as the stock did generate a key reversal on Thursday having made a new all-time intra-week high at 185.50 and then closing on the lows of the day below the previous day’s low. There was no follow through to the reversal on Friday and the stock did close on the highs of the day, suggesting the first course of action for the week will be to the upside above Friday’s high 180.22. Nonetheless, such action could end up becoming the needed retest of the all-time high at 185.50 and a signal that a top has been found. Resistance will be found at the previous high at 181.25, which is likely to be seen on Monday and possibly a good place to consider adding shorts. Indicative support is now found at Thursday’s low at 175.30 that if broken after Friday’s high is broken would become a sell signal. Probabilities favor some strength on Monday, followed by weakness and a red close next Friday.
Sales of BIDU above 181.00 and using a stop loss at 185.75 and having an objective of $150 would offer a 6-1 risk/reward ratio. My rating on the trade is a 3 (on a scale of 1-5 with 5 being the highest).
Since January 2007 I have offered a weekly charting service where I give up to 4 mentions every week on stocks that I feel offer good risk/reward ratios of at least 4-1 based on charts (not on money). The mentions come out on Sunday evening and include desired entry points, stop loss points and objectives.
In addition, I offer up to 4 chart evaluations per month on stocks of your choice.
A message board is also available where updates are given throughout the day as well as a daily recap. On the message board, I also offer new mentions during the week if an opportunity arises.
During this period of time I have not had a losing year yet (see below):
Status of account for 2007: Profit of $9,758 per 100 shares after losses and commissions were subtracted.
Status of account for 2008: Profit of $14,704 per 100 shares after losses and commissions were subtracted.
Status of account for 2009: Profit of $7,523 per 100 shares after losses and commissions were subtracted.
Status of account for 2010: Profit of $24,045 per 100 shares after losses and commissions were subtracted.
Status of account for 2011: Profit of $3,616 per 100 shares after losses and commissions were subtracted.
Status of account for 2012: Profit of $3,399 per 100 shares after losses and commissions were subtracted.
Status of account for 2013, as of 10/1
Profit of $13379 using 100 shares per mention (after commissions & losses)
If interested and want more information please visit my website called theoasisclub (dot) net.
Yes, I see that you can no longer click on my nick and be sent to my Yahoo Profile. Bad move by Yahoo, in my opinion.
Nonetheless, if you are interested you can go to "the oasis club . net" and get the information there.
Click on my nick and you will be sent to my personal profile. My email and website address is there. Send me an email and we can talk.
I did check the chart of SPWR. I would not change my positions in FLSR for SPWR as I believe that FSLR has better upside, but SPWR has a good chart and should be moving up to the $33 level. With the stock trading at $22.50, it does give you some good upside potential.
I will keep an eye on your stock. Thanks for bringing it to my attention.
FSLR has now gone above yesterday's high, making yesterday's low now a possible successful retest of the important support between $34 and $36. Nonetheless, the bulls need to get the stock to get above the most recent high at 38.07 and close above the 200-day MA, currently at 37.65. If they can accomplish all of that, I will then add positions on any dip back down to 37.50.
FCEL has been in a 6 year downtrend where the 200-week MA, currently at 1.50, has not been broken once, though it was tested for the first time 3 months ago.
A close above 1.52 tomorrow (Friday Weekly Close) will be a buy signal of great consequence that would likely push the stock up to the 2.50 level within 4 weeks.
It would then be likely that some kind of pullback and retest of support would occur with a drop down to the 2.00 level.
Nonetheless, this kind of a breakout (if it occurs) would likely cause the stock to move up to the $5 within 6-12 months.
Breakouts of the 200-week MA, especially after such a "long' time of being under the line are likely to generate a huge amount of short-covering in the first few weeks as well as establish at least a sideways market (likely) if not the beginning of a new bull trend.
With the stock having traded for 21 months between Oct08 and May10 between 2.50 and 5.00, the probabilities would be high that if the stock gets above 2.50 that it would trade in that range for some time thereafter.
It all starts this Friday. This earnings report should definitely cause the stock to rally up to the 1.50 level by tomorrow and if broken (now likely), it would be like the first domino falling that would cause a chain reaction to occur that would likely take the stock to 2.50 in short order.
My educated chart opinion.
All that needs to happen today is for the stock to close in the upper half of the day's trading range, which would be above 36.27. If that happen, the probabilities will favor the stock going above today's high at 36.98 tomorrow, which in turn would make today's low at 35.59 into a successful retest on the daily chart of the support found between $34 and $36.
I am a chartist and have been one for 37 years. In fact I was a chart analyst for Prudential Bache in the 80's. I have looked at the chart going back 10 years. There is not one single time in that time period that 27.02 has had "any" importance.
Support at 27.04? Where? From what? How did you come up with that level as the charts show NOTHING there?
The 50-week MA is at 35.50, the 100-week MA is at 31.90.
The lowest low for the past 5 months is at 35.14. There is a lot of support both from previous trading over a period of 5 months as well as psychologically at $30 and below that there is support at 25.51 and at 24.60.
So where did you come up with that price? Pulled it out of the air? Consulted a seer? Read the tea leaves?
Anyone that can read a chart knows that price is only in your imagination. Short and trying to generate more selling, is that it?
FSLR is not often tied in to what the indexes do. It is a stock that moves mostly on its own and not necessarily follows the overall market.
I have been trading for 37 years and I know how things work. My stop losses are mental 95% of the time. Where an important level of support is found that if broken would cause a strong and immediate reaction, I will put a hard stop and mention it to my subscribers, but that does not happen all that much.
I do not have enough information I can depend on to fundamentally evaluate any stock. As such, I follow the charts which show where the "people-in-the-know" are buying and selling, or where they bought and sold in the past. Doing that allows me to determine an entry point, a stop loss point and an objective that I can have some dependance on. Simply stated, looking at the charts gives me a road map that is not dependent on whatever feelings about the stock I have on any particular week.
The charts suggested that the stock would drop down to anywhere between 34.09 and 36.13. With today's low being 35.59, it does start to fulfill the downside objective, meaning the stock is now a likely better purchase than a sell as this is the level where the stock had important resistance before that became support when broken.
I am not going to discuss any fundamentals because everyone can come up with some fundamental reason for the stock going up, going down, or going nowhere and I am not a judge that can determine whose story is the best. I simply want to follow the big money and use good money management with trades that offer at least a 4-1 risk/reward ratios (based on the charts and not on money). This way, I can be wrong as much as 80% of the time and still break at least even. I have been doing this for 9 years and so far I have not had a losing year and at no time during the last 9 years did I bother to look at the fundamentals of any company! I just follow the big money and use good money management.
This was part of my newsletter mention this week:
On a chart basis, FSLR is on a short-term downtrend but still in a mid-term uptrend since the 50-week, currently at 34.65, has not been broken. Further downside will likely be seen this week based on the fact the stock closed on the lows of the week and below the 200-day MA, with a retest of the 50-week MA in mind. The break of the 200-day MA is not as important as it would otherwise be for the simple reasons that the stock has been "straddling" that line for the past 2 weeks, closing both slightly above and slightly below the line on several occasions, as well as from the fact that the 50-week MA is currently so close and likely more important and indicative than the 200-day. In addition, the breakout level from the 2-year sideways trend the stock was in from Feb12 to Feb13 is at 34.09 on a weekly closing basis and at 36.13 on a daily closing basis, meaning that the $34-$36 area is considered a decent support level as well.
To the upside, FSLR has some very minor resistance at 38.07 and a bit stronger at 40.14. Further minor resistance is found at 41.00 and then again at the 50-day MA, currently at 43.85. Additional resistance is found at the gap area up at 45.80, which is also where the 100-day MA is currently located. If that gap is closed and the stock closes above the MA line there, the $50 level would become a strong magnet likely to be reached soon thereafter. Resumption of the recent up-trend would likely cause the stock to get above the recent high at 59.00.
To the downside, FSLR shows support at 36.13, at 35.14, at 34.85 and at 34.09.
I do want to mention that if FSLR closes above 37.52 and rallies intra-week above 38.07, a small buy signal will be given on the daily chart. A rally above last week's high at 39.46 would do the same on the weekly chart. These are both points that can be used to add positions if able to purchase the stock below 36.13.
I purchased FSLR at 35.92. I am using a 33.90 stop loss and a 50.00 objective. I am risking $202 to pick up $1408 per 100 shares, which is a 7-1 risk/reward ratio.
Getting down to the $35 level was a high probability but this is an important support level on the charts and should hold. I am strongly bullish on this purchase.
I hate to say this but the stock is showing a bearish inverted flag formation with the flagpole being the drop from 15.24 to 10.52 and the flag is the trading range the last 10 days between 10.52 and 11.69. Objective of the flag if the bottom of the flag is broken at 10.52 is 7.00.
I am not saying the formation will be fulfilled as I do see the bears having a lot of problems getting the stock below 9.50 but the flag formation is presently built and the objective is valid based on the guidelines of flag formations. Just letting you know.
The one thing that is clear though, is that the bulls have been unable to generate any kind of meaningful rally after the big drop. The stock has traded sideways for 9 days and that is a big negative as it shows no buying interest is being seen.
A break above 11.69 will likely bring about a rally up to 12.50 where selling will likely be seen again. Nonetheless, if the bulls can't get above 11.69 in the next few days, the selling will return and push the stock down to at least the 9.50-9.70 level.
Hey, don't shoot the messenger, this is just charting 101.
Good Chart Traders use the weekly Moving Averages (50, 100, and 200) all the time. The key word though is "good" technicians.