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First Solar, Inc. Message Board

luckyone581 10 posts  |  Last Activity: Nov 7, 2014 12:42 PM Member since: Feb 10, 2008
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  • Reply to

    guys guys calm down

    by marlinsrundeep82 Nov 4, 2014 11:53 AM
    luckyone581 luckyone581 Nov 7, 2014 12:42 PM Flag

    Below is what I just said on my message board to my subscribers:

    AKS has now broken above the intra-day resistance at 6.50 that I mentioned the last 2 days was a pivotal resistance level. The stock is spiking up and did not generate a gap this morning, which in turn suggests that the gap between 5.86 and yesterday's low 5.99 will remain open and if follow through to today's rally is seen on Monday (likely), it would be a bullish statement as the bears should have been able to close the gap, having seen a lot of selling pressure the last 3 days. If the bulls can manage to close the stock today above the 6.50/6.60 level it will be another positive.

  • Reply to

    guys guys calm down

    by marlinsrundeep82 Nov 4, 2014 11:53 AM
    luckyone581 luckyone581 Nov 4, 2014 2:58 PM Flag

    Yes everyone, do calm down. From a chart perspective this move down was "likely to happen" as the recent low at 5.14 had not been tested yet and it is always unlikely that without a major positive fundamental change (and the upgrade was not that) that a stock will rally without some kind of retest of the recent 51-week low.

    In addition, the close on Friday was right on the 200-day and 200-week MA's (both currently around 7.57) and the minute the stock closed yesterday in the red, it meant that the 200-day MA was tested successfully and that would "automatically" bring selling from chart traders.

    There is good support at 6.00 but there is a breakaway gap between 5.89 and 6.10 that if NOT closed would be a bullish statement as it is a "magnet". If closed, it would not be a bearish statement but it would generate a "slower" bounce up to the MA's lines.

    The probabilities of the stock getting up to the $10 level are high, at least based on the chart.

    If the bulls can rally the stock to close around 6.59 today, that would be a positive since there is a minor but evident daily close support at that level that if not broken, would be a positive statement. A close above the mid-point of today's trading range (meaning above 6.78) would be a strong positive.

    Nonetheless, I doubt either one of those will occur. I do expect the stock to go below today's low at 6.16 tomorrow and get down to at least 6.10 where some buying will be seen because of the gap.

    Either way, the action does is not indicative of anything negative. A daily close below 5.48 would be a negative.

    What I expect will happen this week is a daily close around the 6.00 level and recovery back up to the 7.50 level.

    Good luck to all.

    By the way, I have been a chart trader for 37 years and worked as a chart analyst for Prudential Bache, Merrill Lynch and Dean Witter in the 80's.

  • Reply to

    What's Happening

    by luckyone581 Oct 28, 2014 11:35 AM
    luckyone581 luckyone581 Oct 28, 2014 2:50 PM Flag

    I don't believe that is the reason for the drop in price. I have been following the price of oil and shorted both OXY and CVX a couple of months ago and made good profits on them. Nonetheless, I am now long both of those stocks (though looking to get out around here) as they reached levels of support and bounced.

    The drop in ENG is much more than that. There is no way that the drop in the price of oil, which has been about 28% in value, will have been the cause of the stock dropping 70% in value over 4 months and 37% in value over the past 3 weeks.

    In addition, the price of oil has bounced up but the stock has seen NO BUYING interest whatsoever.

    It smells big time of some problems that may be happening to the company. If it smells like a rat, and skulks like a rat, it probably is a rat.

  • luckyone581 by luckyone581 Oct 28, 2014 11:35 AM Flag

    ENG has dropped 70% in 4 months and 37% in the last 3 weeks. In addition, the stock has closed in the red on 15 of the last 16 days. There seems to be no buying interest at all.

    Does anyone know why this has happened.

    I called the company 6 times yesterday, trying to talk to investor relations or anyone that could answer my questions. I got the run-around as I talked to a couple of people but they did not know anything and those that may know something did not return my calls after repeated requests for a call back were given.

    Something negative is happening with this company, but I can't seen to get any information about it. This kind of a drop without any news items is not normal.

  • luckyone581 luckyone581 Sep 29, 2014 4:29 PM Flag

    I went to Yahoo historical prices and they do not show the .76 low. Nonetheless, I have a lot of confidence in my charting service (scottrade) and the chart says it did get down to .76 on December 14th 2012. Just in case my charting service was wrong, I checked 2 other charting services and they show exactly the same thing. As such, I would not have much confidence in Yahoo's historical prices.

  • luckyone581 by luckyone581 Sep 28, 2014 8:10 PM Flag

    GIGM made a new 3 year low this past week, below the previous low seen in December 2012 at .87 cents. Once again the stock closed on the lows of the week, suggesting that further downside below last week's low at .81 cents will be seen this week. The 10-year low has been .76 (.80 on a weekly closing basis), meaning that with the .82 cent close on Friday that the bulls need to generate some kind of buying by next Friday or face the possibility of a chart breakdown. Resistance on a daily closing basis is now found between .92 and .94 cents. I have not been able to find any news to have caused this unexpected weakness, meaning that if it is all chart oriented, some recovery should be seen this week. Expect lower prices at some point this week but a green close next Friday.

  • Reply to

    Question for Board Members

    by luckyone581 Sep 26, 2014 3:00 PM
    luckyone581 luckyone581 Sep 28, 2014 8:13 AM Flag

    Having traded stocks for 37 years and having been a broker/trader/analyst for Merrill Lynch, Prudential Bache and Dean Witter in the 80's, I am very familiar with sell high and buy low.

    Nonetheless, deciding where to buy and where to sell is not as easy as it sounds. Many times what looks to be low is not and the stock goes "lower".

    Having purchased DCTH around 4.23 and having bought "more" around 2.00 and now the stock trading around .13 cents, buying more low was not the thing to do. (by the way if you check the stock out you will see it is trading at 2.06 but the stock went through a reverse split of 16-1, meaning it is trading at .13 cents).

    Fortunately in that stock I originally purchased it at 5.71 and GOT OUT at 15.35, so the stock overall has been a winner for me as I netted $9+ per share on that trade and losing about $3 per share on this trade. .

    As far as my charts predicting the action on GIGM, that was not the case and is the reason why I asked if there was any news. This move down to .81 cents has been a" total surprise". I did not see it coming or even thought it could happen.

  • luckyone581 luckyone581 Sep 28, 2014 8:00 AM Flag

    GIGM got down to .76 cents the second week of December 2012. The lowest weekly close ever though has been 80.3. With the stock closing yesterday at .82 cents, it really is getting dicey, especially since the stock closed on the lows of the week and further downside is likely to be seen this week.

  • Reply to

    Question for Board Members

    by luckyone581 Sep 26, 2014 3:00 PM
    luckyone581 luckyone581 Sep 26, 2014 3:53 PM Flag

    Thanks for the reply but it did not answer the question. I still need to know what news occurred to cause the drop.

    BTW, as far as buying when people are selling and selling when people are buying, I have been a trader for 37 years and that is not a piece of advice I need. I have been long GIGM since April but the recent action is not bullish, it is bearish.

    I offer a charting service and below are the results of all my "public" mentions for the past 7 years:

    Status of account for 2007: Profit of $9,758 per 100 shares after losses and commissions were subtracted.
    Status of account for 2008: Profit of $14,704 per 100 shares after losses and commissions were subtracted.
    Status of account for 2009: Profit of $7,523 per 100 shares after losses and commissions were subtracted.
    Status of account for 2010: Profit of $24,045 per 100 shares after losses and commissions were subtracted.
    Status of account for 2011: Profit of $3,616 per 100 shares after losses and commissions were subtracted.
    Status of account for 2012: Profit of $3,399 per 100 shares after losses and commissions were subtracted.
    Status of account for 2013: Profit of $15,886 per 100 shares after losses and commissions were subtracted.

    Status of account for 2014, as of 8/1

    Profit of $25337 using 100 shares per mention (after commissions & losses)

  • luckyone581 by luckyone581 Sep 26, 2014 3:00 PM Flag

    Just 8 days ago this stock was looking like it was ready to breakout and 1 week later it has made a new 10-year low and looking like it wants to take a dive.

    I have looked everywhere but I cannot find any news that could have generated this kind of weakness.

    Does anyone know why this stock has dropped 28% in 8 days?

    TIA

FSLR
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