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First Solar, Inc. Message Board

luckyone581 55 posts  |  Last Activity: Jun 27, 2016 1:19 PM Member since: Feb 10, 2008
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  • luckyone581 by luckyone581 Jun 8, 2016 2:49 PM Flag

    Congratulations bulls, after 9 days of inability to close above the 6.97 level, with the help of the index market and the renewed belief that the market is going to have a "melt up", the bulls finally were able to make it happen.

    The stock is now likely to move up to the 7.90 to 8.24 level where stronger resistance levels are found. To begin with, the 200-day MA is currently at 7.90, the 12-week high is at 8.24 and 2 decent weekly closes at 8.04/8.06 from August 2013 and from March of this year are found.

    The mini breakout also suggests that the 6.70/6.75 level will now become short-term pivotal support and likely to hold up unless the index market fails to breakout as most analysts are expecting it to do so.

    Nonetheless bulls, don't get all excited as this is more the market pulling you up than the stock itself moving up. As such, upside is likely to be somewhat limited. Nonetheless, if the bulls can generate a green weekly close (Fridays) above 8.04, it will generate enough buying interest for a rally up to the 9.10 level where the 200-week MA is currently at. That is a line that in order for it to be broken, the bulls will need positive news regarding the company itself (not the index market) to break.

    Nonetheless, right now bask in the positive action being seen. You certainly have been waiting a long time for something positive to occur and it has now happened. Hopefully, the index market won't fall flat on its face.

    Watch oil on Friday. If it closes above 49.63 (presently at 51.04) it will be a breakout that will likely carry it to the $70 level. If that occurs, the indexes are likely to go higher.

  • luckyone581 luckyone581 Apr 13, 2016 5:04 PM Flag

    Maros, be careful stating your opinions. You need to keep in mind what makes trading sense and what doesn't. Simply stated, you need to look at the charts (not just the fundamentals) before you say something like this.

    First of all, you NEVER add positions when a stock is at (actually below) and important resistance level. The 200-day MA is currently at 8.00 and until that level is broken and then confirmed broken with a second close above that level, the stock is not a "good" buy as you are at an area that will "automatically" generate selling interest and you alone cannot overcome that selling interest.

    It makes more sense to wait for 8,00 to get broken, get confirmed broken and "then" to purchase on the next dip, which would probably be back down to 8.00 to retest the breakout. Buying today anywhere between 7.62 and 8.10 makes no sense........chart-wise.

    I would rather give up a few points of profit and increase the probabilities of success than being one of the people buying at resistance.

    At least try to use some chart points in conjunction with your fundamental analysis.

    By the way, the indexes are also at a major pivot point, meaning that tomorrow and Friday could see the indexes continuing higher or turning down and KNDI is likely to move somewhat in conjunction with the indexes. As such, not only is the stock at an important resistance but so is the market. Trade intelligently and defensively so you don't get caught with your pants down.

  • luckyone581 by luckyone581 May 16, 2016 2:16 PM Flag

    The rally today above yesterday's high has made yesterday's low at 6.11 into a double low with the 6.10 low seen on February 11th, meaning that the short-term bull traders are likely to jump on this chance to make a fast buck.

    The stock is likely to rally back up to the 6.93-6.97 level off of this but that level is a big key as to whether this double low will stimulate a resurgence in real buying interest or just a fast buck.

    As such, keep an eye on the 6.93-6.97 level based on a daily closing basis. If the stock rallies to that level (now likely) but the bulls fail to close above that level and the stock starts to turn back down, it will be a big disappointment. If the stock gets back down to 6.10/6.11 it will create a multiple low (more than 2) and those get broken 99% of the time, which in turn would likely mean the multi-year low at 5.05 would be tested.

    One thing to consider is that this rally is likely based on the indexes rallying unexpectedly today off of the new 4-month high in oil prices. The chart of the indexes looks weak but today that has been put aside. Nonetheless, no resistance level of consequence has been broken, meaning this rally is likely bogus. Considering that situation, the rally in KNDI being seen is likely bogus as well.

    Nonetheless, you now have chart parameters you can follow that will help you determine, at least on a short-term basis, what this move today means.

  • Reply to

    Gary/Chasen work for the Short/MM Crooks

    by joezai May 10, 2016 1:58 PM
    luckyone581 luckyone581 May 10, 2016 5:51 PM Flag

    I can't even find the words to respond to such a post.

    Nonetheless, using your conclusion, it must be said that they have been "extremely" successful in working for the "short/mm crooks" as the stock has gone down, down, down. Something must be wrong with the bulls that they can get flamboozled by just 2 guys on a message board, one of which has stated he has no positions (long or short). That is quite a feat, or is it that the bulls have no real buying power? If that is the case, I would run from such a stock as you need more buying than selling to make the stock go up and if just 2 guys can get more selling to occur (over the buying), well I would not want to be in such a stock.

  • luckyone581 by luckyone581 May 6, 2016 12:09 PM Flag

    KNDI just made a new 31 trading days low and is 3 points from making a new 3-month low. If that does occur (now looking likely), the chart formation offers a 4.58 downside objective.

    At the very least, the gap down between 6.40 and 6.57 will be targeted and if the February intra-week support at 6.10 is broken, there is no support until "minor" support at 6.55 and then the multi-year low at 5.05.

    Chart is strongly leaning to the downside and with the indexes likely in the Sell in May and go Away correction and likely to move lower, the bulls will need to hope the earnings report on Tuesday is better than expected. Given the economic situation in China at this time (very poor), the probabilities of the earnings report coming out sufficiently better than anticipated is low.

    Enjoy the ride as it seems the roller coaster is on a down slope.

  • luckyone581 luckyone581 May 20, 2016 10:56 AM Flag

    "Not wise to be short anymore"

    Why? Because YOU are dreaming about the possibility of a huge company collaborating with a small and insignificant company? and that they will announce it on Monday before the Deutche Conference? Why now? what catalyst is there for TSLA to even consider doing such a thing at this time? KNDI is but a tiny blip on the radar with a bad reputation and it looks more like a minnow with Eboli than a fish worthy of going after. TSLA has absolutely nothing to gain from such "collaboration". It is like saying that AMZN is going to collaborate with Joe Smith corner store (a Mom & Pop operation) to sell to all of the U.S..

    Give me a break, mentioning such a dream is pure fantasy and if you think anyone will "act" on that premise, you are hallucinating to the point that you should consider turning yourself in to the closest mental institution.

    How on earth does Yahoo allow these kinds of posts? These message boards should be for serious investors, not little kids "playing" on an kids investors board game.

  • Reply to

    KNDI - Stock to buy

    by financestar88 Apr 20, 2016 3:23 PM
    luckyone581 luckyone581 Apr 20, 2016 4:15 PM Flag

    Hey FS, I don't know if you realize this but you have been saying "buy, buy, buy" for the past year and yet the stock is $13 below the high and only $2 above the low. Simply stated, you have done nothing but lose money for yourself and those that listened to you.

    Do you realize just how stupid you look? How uninformed you are?

    I know you believe in the long side of KNDI, but there is a point in time where someone with half a brain would just stay quiet and not continue to make a fool of himself. Or is it that you just like to hear yourself talk or convince yourself that you are right by simply repeating the same thing a million times?

  • luckyone581 luckyone581 May 10, 2016 5:43 PM Flag

    "Solid Foundation" Stock is $1.50 from the 3-year low and $16 from the 2-year high. I would not call that "solid" by any stretch of the imagination. Stock got close to the 3-month low at 6.10 and that on a day that the bulls in the market accomplished a mini breakout. If the stock breaks the 6.10 level (just 13 points from today's low) it will make a new 7-month low and if it does that, whatever foundation has been built (not a solid one) will be destroyed.

    "Bashers are here for one reason and one reason alone" Yes, they are here because this is a good stock to short, one where profits can be made quite easily. If you found such a stock, would you stay away?

    "Hold and buy the dips". Every bulls has been doing that and so far the only result of doing so is a pyramid loss that threatens many portfolios for extinction. After all, how much money do you need to have to buy, hold, buy more and hold, and buy more and hold again if the stock goes down every single time you buy.

    That kind of advice is what is usually given at a mental institution. I has no validity and can be destructive.

    I wonder if you have been following your advice and if so, would you be so kind to tell us how many shares you have and at what average price?

  • luckyone581 by luckyone581 Apr 12, 2016 3:29 PM Flag

    KNDI fever is a malady, just like Malaria is. I have never seen so many people go bananas (like at Stock twits) with a "small" 3% move. To me, the fact the stock got good fundamental news today and that the indexes are up strong, would suggest that the bulls should have accomplished more. Nonetheless, the bulls have not even been able to get above the 200 "60-minute" MA, which is a "minor" resistance as it in in the intra-day chart. Forget about the fact that the bulls need to generate a close above 8.00 on the daily chart to accomplish anything of any consequence but KNDI bulls are going bananas over a 24 points move.

    I guess this is like Malaria. If you catch the fever you can never get rid of the illness.

    Well, good luck to you since I don't have any position in either direction, but this is ridiculous. Its like a group of babies at a mall day care all going crazy at the same time because they are surrounded by horse #$%$ and they all feel there must be a pony somewhere close.

  • Reply to

    Message Board Adages

    by luckyone581 Apr 18, 2016 3:49 PM
    luckyone581 luckyone581 Apr 18, 2016 5:02 PM Flag

    You ask a good question and I must say that Chasen has it pegged perfectly.

    I have NEVER been on any message board (and I have been on many during the last 11 years) that has so many idiots as this one has. I am not saying the people here are idiots for buying or selling, they are simply idiots in general. The funny thing is that there seems to be as many idiots talking about KNDI on Stocktwits as there is here, meaning that it isn't the message board but the stock itself that draws this kind of mentality.

    I have been on many message boards where people are as faithful to those stocks as the ones here but never have I seen so many people talk absolute rubbish with a high lack of common sense as I see here (and on Stock twits as well). It is so incredible, that I am drawn back to this message board as I pinch myself over and over again trying to see if this is for real or just a figment of my imagination.

    It really is like a cartoon and as such, hard to walk away from, even without having a stake in the company.

    It isn't everyone, but there are about 6 people here that really should go and see a psychiatrist. It is like watching Nicholson on One Flew Over the Cuckoo's Nest.

  • Reply to

    Needs a bit of a reversal here

    by chasen_damoney Apr 15, 2016 11:42 AM
    luckyone581 luckyone581 Apr 20, 2016 4:10 PM Flag

    So far, the chart evaluation I made 5 days ago has worked perfectly. The stock has now closed the gap and is down to the 7.10-7.30 level. Now, we'll start to see just how much buying/staying power the bulls possess

  • luckyone581 luckyone581 Apr 6, 2016 4:27 PM Flag

    That would be like seeing Trump marry the slutty waitress at the corner Diner. Rich and poor don't mix well. It isn't even worth 1-minute of thought. Won't happen.

  • KND Friday Closing Price – 7.10

    KNDI has been in a sideways trading range between $6 and $8 for the past 6 months but for the past 18 weeks the bears have tried to push the stock down to test or break the 32-month low at 5.05 but failed and in the process a double low was built at the 6.10/6.11 and from which a short-term breakout occurred last week when the bulls were able to generate a daily close above the 6.97 level that had been considered a decent and pivotal resistance area. As such, it seems likely that the stock is back on its way to test the $8 resistance area.

    KNDI generated a spike rally this past week but the bulls were unable to maintain the rally and the stock closed in the lower half of the week’s trading range, suggesting further downside below last week’s low at 6.85 will be seen this week. By the same token, the 6.53 to 6.75 level has been now established as a minor to decent support level that is unlikely to be broken unless the bears have gained new ammunition with which to break the double low at 6.10/6.11 and test the $5, which they have not been able to do for the past 18 weeks.

    As such, an opportunity has arisen for a purchase of KNDI that offers a decent probability rating with a viable risk/reward ratio, using levels that have been repeatedly seen this year.

    In addition, with the probability that the index market will be making a new all-time high later on this year, which in turn would likely carry KNDI higher as well, it is a trade that has “potential” for a higher profit over the mid-term (3-6 months).

    Purchases of KNDI between 6.70 and 6.80 and using a stop loss at 6.43 and having a minimum objective of reaching at least the 200-day MA, currently at 7.95, or even perhaps up to the 200-week MA, currently at 9.05, will offer a 3 to 6-1 risk/reward ratio.

    My rating on the trade is a 3 (on a scale of 1-5 with 5 being the highest).

  • luckyone581 luckyone581 May 12, 2016 5:48 PM Flag

    "you read this answers because you are a short seller who desperately knows that at the end you will loose".

    Where do you get this kind of "unrealistic" ideas from?

    "knows that at the end you will lose".

    Did you know that at a Casino the house always wins even if once in a Blue Moon someone hits it big? Short-sellers in KNDI are the house. Sometime in the far future the stock may rally but in the meantime short sellers are raking in the money, over and over again.

    I would rather have a sure thing "over and over" again than play the lottery hoping that at some point my numbers may come up and I will win big.

    Do you ever consider common sense reasoning as a viable option?

  • luckyone581 by luckyone581 Jun 25, 2016 3:25 PM Flag

    I just finished doing the chart evaluation on the indexes and I did not discover anything that would change, ameliorate, or positively affect the market. In fact, considering the Death Crosses in the indexes that I have been talking about for the past 4 months, the charts are now strongly suggesting that the kind of action seen in 2001 (when the first Death Cross to the downside occurred) is becoming a likely scenario. In 2001, the Death Cross in the DOW occurred 12 weeks before the index actually started to head lower (the Cross occurred this year 14 weeks ago) and on that occasion the DOW dropped 1518 points once the downside got started. The index then bounced above the previous high but then got into a 20 month drop that took the index down 3500 points before a bottom was found.

    The Brexit news is a game changer that unfortunately for the bulls the full outcome won't be clearly known for anywhere up to 2 years, meaning that the possibilities of the same kind of scenario as seen in 2001 are high.

    On a shorter term basis (like this coming week), the damage done to the charts is extensive and not likely to be negated this week as the fundamental negatives will not change. In fact, the fact that the traders had to react to the news in just 1-day before the weekend came up, does suggest that more (not less) selling will happen this week.

    In addition, all the indexes have some very pivotal support levels now close-by and if those get broken the probabilities will favor some panic selling and knowing how the traders think and how the market works, it is likely that the traders will "push" for those breaks as the market is set perfectly for something of consequence to occur and for the traders to take advantage of it.

    Downside objective in the DOW could easily be the 16333 level to be seen over the next 2 weeks. That is almost 1100 points lower.

    The opening on Monday could be a big clue. If the NAZ gaps down (especially below support at 4678), it could get ugly

  • Reply to

    Enjoy the Ride

    by luckyone581 May 6, 2016 12:09 PM
    luckyone581 luckyone581 May 6, 2016 1:26 PM Flag

    "Lucky's charts"??

    I just read the charts as they are, they are not "mine".

    The charts are not showing any anticipation of such a positive piece of news. If you are mentioning it, then it is probably news that is known and if that is the case, it is NOT bringing any buying interest.

    PLEASE keep in mind that buying "interest" will be shown on the charts and without it, the stock will NOT move up. It is simple math.

  • Reply to

    Shorts are good for one thing...

    by kerklip Mar 29, 2016 9:48 PM
    luckyone581 luckyone581 Apr 6, 2016 9:11 AM Flag

    "they have after all allowed us to acumulate a lot of shares on the cheap."

    That is the optimistic point of view and the problem is that the actual facts do not support your idea that you are accumulating shares "on the cheap".

    The reality/truth is that unless you bought KNDI before 2013 and then GOT OUT when it rallied to $20, your money has been spinning its wheels and doing NOTHING for the past 27 months.

    Anytime you have money invested in anything for 27 months and it has not grown not even at the rate of inflation (about 1.5%), it is considered a BAD investment.

    As such, your post is completely ridiculous and bereft of any actual positive facts.

  • Reply to

    Bull ,.is near ,...

    by henio2888 Apr 20, 2016 11:35 AM
    luckyone581 luckyone581 Apr 20, 2016 5:53 PM Flag

    $58 in what time frame?

    There is absolutely no chance at this time that the stock will get up to $58 this year or even next, unless there is a major breakthrough with the company and the fact is that the company's product does not offer the kind of upside outlook that would make the stock reach that level for a long long time.

    In addition, since you have stated that you are a swing trader, pray tell what you base this unbelievably uninformed outlook of $58 on any kind of swing trading.

    The stock has 3 brick walls that it has to get above (at $8, at $10, and at the previous major low at $11.35. To get above all of those levels would require a major fundamental change (which is not on the horizon) or working with the charts over a period of at least 3 - 6 month to overcome those brick walls, all along requiring help from the indexes heading higher, the Chinese market heading higher and better earnings (which are not due out for another 2 months).

    As such, what would make a sane person make such an unreasonable comment. It is beyond being possible.

    As such, I have to add you to the list of people that should be on heading to a mental institution.

    Hey, with so many crazy people here, perhaps this message board is Yahoo's mental institution. It certainly would answer a lot of questions!

  • luckyone581 luckyone581 May 10, 2016 7:23 PM Flag

    I am neither bearish nor bullish on KNDI. I have stated that in the past at the same time that I have both purchased the stock as well as shorted it. I am a trader and my only interest is in making money any way I can.

    I do have trouble with people like you that think you know it all and try to convince others to buy off of your presumed knowledge of the company.

    The bottom line is that the company has a lot of questions that will need to be answered before the professional traders get involved in the buy side and that is fully displayed by the action being seen in the charts.

    If you want to put all your money on your beliefs, it is certainly your prerogative but don't try to convince others to do the same. It is not your place nor you have enough knowledge of the company to attempt being a spokesperson for the bulls.

    I wish you well with your investment, but the reality is that so far it has been a bust!

  • luckyone581 luckyone581 May 11, 2016 7:28 PM Flag

    "One huge news release and asta la vista"

    Pray tell, what could KNDI announce that would be a huge news release???

    Please be specific as to what it could be. Knowing a bit about the company, I can see no possible news release that would cause the company to soar in price.

46.37+2.14(+4.84%)Jun 28 4:00 PMEDT