Per my chart evaluation that the 1.98-2.00 level will stop the decline, I purchased additional shares today at 2.01. I previously purchased at 2.50 and at 2.32. I am now averaged long at 2.276.
I am using a stop loss at 1.88. Nonetheless, if the stock gets below 1.98 or closes below 2.00 at any time, I may not wait for the stop loss to be hit.
"ok lets get one thing straight look back over 10 yrs of fcel trading . there is no rounded bottom as you put it"
You really need to go to chart school. FCEL has a "classic" rounded bottom. It doesn't get much better than this with the beginning left level being at 1.02 in June 2010, the bottom being at .80 cents in October 2011, and the right level being at 1.12 in August 2013. In addition, this rounded bottom took 3 years to build which is about the right time frame as well.
As such, your are totally wrong is saying there is no rounded bottom. There is!!!
Remember that "buying low and selling high" is a great adage if you know where the low is likely to be found.
Closing a few days in the green usually means you are "chasing" a stock and chasing stocks means your risk factor is higher but your probability rating is not necessarily higher.
Charts help. They are not a sure thing but they do allow you to get involved at levels that other traders, usually the big chart traders, are getting involved as well and that increases your chances of making the right decision.
Actually this "turd" is one I love to wallow in. I originally bought the stock at .84 and .91 cents and got out at 4.09. I am back in at an average price of 2.41 and I am losing some money right now but after the $3.22 per share profit all I have given back so far (on paper) is $.31 cents. so I am still up on the stock about $2.90 per share.
If you can give me a few more "turds" like this one, please send them my way. I love this kind of turd wallowing.
My evaluations are all based on chart. I am not GOOD ENOUGH to evaluate the fundamental picture since none of us ever have ALL the facts.
I just know one thing, humans repeat actions over and over again. In fact the computer algorythms that hedge and institutional firms use are based more on numbers than fundamentals, because those big companies know that playing the market is about making money than about being right on an evaluation. As such, they follow the numbers and past history more often than not.
As a trader my goal is "to make more money than I lose" so I pinpoint my entry points, use clearly defined stop loss placements and never get into a trade with less than a 4-1 risk/reward ratio based on the charts and that means that I can be wrong as much as 80% of the time and break even or make some money.
Over the years my track record is being right 47.5% of the time and that is actually a high number because I get into trades with a very small risk factor so my losses are usually small. On the opposite side, my profits are usually 3-4 times bigger than the losses, which means that at the end of each and every year I make money.
Below is my track record of the "public" mentions I have made through my newsletter during the past 7 years: All of the numbers below are "after losses and commissions have been subtracted".
Status of account for 2007: Profit of $9,758 per 100 shares.
Status of account for 2008: Profit of $14,704 per 100 shares..
Status of account for 2009: Profit of $7,523 per 100 shares.
Status of account for 2010: Profit of $24,045 per 100 shares..
Status of account for 2011: Profit of $3,616 per 100 shares.
Status of account for 2012: Profit of $3,399 per 100 share.
Status of account for 2013: Profit of $15,886 per 100 shares.
I have not yet had a losing year. So all your criticisms fall on deaf ears. My trading approach based on chart knowledge works!
I said a month ago that if the breakaway gap between 2.20 and 2.26 got closed that the downside objective would be 1.98-2.00. If you go back to March 2009, just before the rounded bottom started to occur, the stock got down to 1.98 and then bounced to 5.47.
I expect that scenario to occur since the rounded bottom has been built and the breakout from it has occurred, which in turn means that a drop to the level of support seen "just before" the rounded bottom started to be built is likely. Just as likely is the chart support that is likely to be found at that price.
If the 2.04 level was to be the low for this move, the 2.21 level should have held this week and it hasn't. The stock is bid and ask today at 2.04-2.06 and that suggests the 2.04 level will be broken and the 1.98-2.00 level reached.
Let me go one step further and say that the probabilities are good that the stock will close on Friday at 2.13 which was the weekly close seen the week the stock dropped to 1.98.
If this scenario as painted above occurs and the stock does get down to 1.98/2.00 and turns around to close around 2.13 on Friday, the bulls will likely come in and buy with strength the following week.
"Wrong again slow one" is a great reply if followed by facts and figures. Words are so cheap that saying them means absolutely nothing if not backed up with information.
Once again, a reply I would expect from a person that is blowing hot air up his #$%$
I worked with Dean Witter from 1983 to 1984 and with Merrill Lynch between 1981 and 1983 . It was all in Miami Florida which is where I live.
We certainly don't know each other so saying I am mentally challenged is full of misinformation. Nonetheless, your posts all seem to be full of anger and debasing and that does not speak highly of you as a person, much less as a knowledgeable traders.
In addition, you are evidently on the wrong side of this stock since your words suggest you are a bear and not a "new" bear, meaning that you probably were short the stock prior to this run up to 4.74 and are still under water at 2.30. If that is the case, you really should not be saying anything negative such bears are fools. The history of the stock this year actually makes you the fool.
First of all, you are correct inasmuch as the Yahoo board only allows a certain number of characters to be written. Nonetheless, I am a chartist and not a fundamentalist and as such the facts I write about are mostly technical in nature. I am not GOOD ENOUGH to be a fundamental analyst since I trade a lot of stocks, not just one and all I look for is chart patterns that are associated with trades that have a high probability of being profitable.
I do have 37 years of charting experience, including 10 years as a trader/broker/chart analyst for Prudential-Bache, Merrill Lynch, and Dean Witter in the 80's.
Chart-wise, there are no other facts that I did not mention. .
Fact #1: From June 2010 to January 2014 (3.5 years) the stock went through a process called "building a bottom. The bottom that got built is what is called a rounded bottom which means a long period of base building that looks rounded. The first low in June 2010 was at 1.02, the low of the bottom building was at .80 back in October 2011, and the most recent bottom before a breakout occurred was at 1.12 in August of last year.
Fact #2: The stock broke out of a 7-year downtrend in November of last year that was delineated by the 200-week MA that had not been broken to the upside since June 2008.
Fact #3: The breakout from the 200-week MA was tested successfully in January when the stock went back down to 1.30. A successful retest of a long-term downtrend is proof that fundamentals have changed to the positive.
Fact #4: The stock got up as high as 54.37 in October 2000 when Fuel Cells were just a futuristic idea and not a proven commodity. There is no reason for the stock not go get back up into an uptrend now that it has been proven and successfully retested that the 14-year downtrend is over.
Fact #5: On the breakout, the stock rallied up to a chart resistance at 4.70 from which chart selling was expected to be seen since such a rally in such a short time without a major fundamental reason for that kind of a rally to occur is "supposed to be met" with selling.
Fact #6: The period prior to the beginning of the rounded bottom, back in March 2009, generated a spike low at 1.98 that should now be considered important support since the breakout from the downtrend is over. The stock got down to 2.04 yesterday and that is certainly close enough to 1.98 to be seen as a successful retest of that important spike low support. It should be mentioned that from that 1.98 low the stock rallied to 5.47 in 14 weeks, meaning that 5.47 is the next upside objective for FCEL, to be reached by August or sooner since the stock going to see short-covering as well as new buying.
I did short the stock on Monday at 180.75 per my newsletter mention.. Nonetheless, based on the fact that the stock did not follow through to the downside yesterday, after the spike down seen on Monday, and did close in the green yesterday. If the stock gets above yesterday's high at 173.94 and gets enough follow through to break a very minor resistance now found at 174.89, I will take a fast profit on the trade.
Keep in mind that I am a "trader" and if I can see on the charts that the stock is going to move from Point A and Point B and I can take advantage of that, I will.
The stock should have seen follow through yesterday and dropped down to the $167-$168 level where a bounce would have been expected. I was ready to take profits yesterday at that price. Nonetheless, since no follow through was seen and the stock closed in the green, it likely means the traders will try to take the stock back up to the 181.00 level where I would again look to go short. A break above 174.89 should cause the stock to move back up to the 181.00 level.
By the way, being short the stock going into earnings does not worry me. First of all, the chart suggests the probabilities have increased that the stock will go down in price (rather than up). Granted, stocks move on fundamental news and earnings is fundamental news that trumps charts. By the same token, charts usually show how the traders feel about what the stock is going to do taking into consideration that earnings is coming. Big traders usually have better information than any of us and I trust what they show me on the charts more than my own "personal" evaluation of the fundamentals.
In addition, I use diversification in my portfolio (6-10 stocks at all times), meaning that some earnings will help and some will not. It all comes out in the wash in the long run. Keep in mind that the stock has moved $40 since the last earnings. A good report could be factored in already.
BIDU extended the rally this week with the 7th new all-time high weekly close in a row. Nonetheless, like last week the bulls were unable to make a convincing statement that further upside will be seen as the stock did generate a key reversal on Thursday having made a new all-time intra-week high at 185.50 and then closing on the lows of the day below the previous day’s low. There was no follow through to the reversal on Friday and the stock did close on the highs of the day, suggesting the first course of action for the week will be to the upside above Friday’s high 180.22. Nonetheless, such action could end up becoming the needed retest of the all-time high at 185.50 and a signal that a top has been found. Resistance will be found at the previous high at 181.25, which is likely to be seen on Monday and possibly a good place to consider adding shorts. Indicative support is now found at Thursday’s low at 175.30 that if broken after Friday’s high is broken would become a sell signal. Probabilities favor some strength on Monday, followed by weakness and a red close next Friday.
Sales of BIDU above 181.00 and using a stop loss at 185.75 and having an objective of $150 would offer a 6-1 risk/reward ratio. My rating on the trade is a 3 (on a scale of 1-5 with 5 being the highest).
Since January 2007 I have offered a weekly charting service where I give up to 4 mentions every week on stocks that I feel offer good risk/reward ratios of at least 4-1 based on charts (not on money). The mentions come out on Sunday evening and include desired entry points, stop loss points and objectives.
In addition, I offer up to 4 chart evaluations per month on stocks of your choice.
A message board is also available where updates are given throughout the day as well as a daily recap. On the message board, I also offer new mentions during the week if an opportunity arises.
During this period of time I have not had a losing year yet (see below):
Status of account for 2007: Profit of $9,758 per 100 shares after losses and commissions were subtracted.
Status of account for 2008: Profit of $14,704 per 100 shares after losses and commissions were subtracted.
Status of account for 2009: Profit of $7,523 per 100 shares after losses and commissions were subtracted.
Status of account for 2010: Profit of $24,045 per 100 shares after losses and commissions were subtracted.
Status of account for 2011: Profit of $3,616 per 100 shares after losses and commissions were subtracted.
Status of account for 2012: Profit of $3,399 per 100 shares after losses and commissions were subtracted.
Status of account for 2013, as of 10/1
Profit of $13379 using 100 shares per mention (after commissions & losses)
If interested and want more information please visit my website called theoasisclub (dot) net.
Yes, I see that you can no longer click on my nick and be sent to my Yahoo Profile. Bad move by Yahoo, in my opinion.
Nonetheless, if you are interested you can go to "the oasis club . net" and get the information there.
Click on my nick and you will be sent to my personal profile. My email and website address is there. Send me an email and we can talk.