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Occidental Petroleum Corporation Message Board

luckyone581 231 posts  |  Last Activity: Feb 9, 2016 9:20 PM Member since: Feb 10, 2008
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  • Reply to

    For all the Naysayers

    by luckyone581 Feb 9, 2016 1:27 PM
    luckyone581 luckyone581 Feb 9, 2016 9:20 PM Flag

    All intelligent people that talk common sense I am buddies with. It is difficult to be buddies with ignorant people as they do not talk the same language.

  • Reply to

    For all the Naysayers

    by luckyone581 Feb 9, 2016 1:27 PM
    luckyone581 luckyone581 Feb 9, 2016 3:12 PM Flag

    Right now it is a flip of a coin and does not depend on the KNDI charts, it depends on what oil and the indexes do and the bears do have the edge there.

    If oil continues lower and the indexes continue lower, KNDI will continue lower itself, probably down to the $5 level again. If the indexes and oil recover, so will KNDI.

    If the 6.15 level breaks, then the probabilities will favor the stock getting down to 5.00. If the 8.00 level breaks to the upside, then recovery will be seen. Right now it is a flip of a coin, not only with KNDI but with the overall market itself.

  • luckyone581 luckyone581 Feb 9, 2016 2:29 PM Flag

    Gary, take a break. Go to the movies, have a shot of tequila, enjoy the sunshine and smell the roses. The amount of negative posts from you is getting depressing. Stop it for awhile please.

  • luckyone581 by luckyone581 Feb 9, 2016 1:27 PM Flag

    The stock has now gotten back down to the 6.53 level that I stated was likely to be seen.

    All of you that have scoffed at the charts have now seen me pick the low at 5.00, saw how I clearly stated that the bulls needed to generate a weekly close above 11.31, and to then confirm it with a second close above that level in order for the breakout to occur (the bulls were not able to do it) and that it would mean the stock would likely head back down to the 6.53 level for a retest of support.

    What do you say now? Is this still a stock that is "only traded fundamentally?" Are the charts as insignificant as most of you have stated? Financestar, Azbo, Baby, etc.........?

    Let this be a good lesson to you regarding the market and what is important for the short term. The charts may not predict what the stock will do in the long run, but they are "extremely" important for the short-term and if you know how to use them, you can increase your profits substantially. A fundamentalist bull, if he bought at the lows of the move at $5, would be sitting right now with a $1.50 profit per share on his purchase. A trader if he bought and sold the stock at support and resistance would be sitting with a over a $13 per share profit (11 times more than the buy and hold investor) .

    If this isn't one of the best examples of trading versus investing, then I don't know what is.

  • Reply to

    Support levels for Kandi

    by maros_boyle Feb 7, 2016 11:04 AM
    luckyone581 luckyone581 Feb 8, 2016 11:15 AM Flag

    Maros, are you now the tech analyst for the board? LOL

    I see you are using Fibonacci numbers for support. Fibonacci numbers are good but unfortunately not all that reliable. Nonetheless, the 6.50 number you provided is one that coincides with a lot of other chart supports and as such, is probably a good one. If you remember correctly, that is the level (actually 6.53) that I have mentioned several times recently.

    The one problem KNDI has is that the indexes could have a lot more to go to the downside. The NAZ broke the August low at 4292 and now the 200-week MA, currently at 4050, beckons. The same 200-week MA beckons for the DOW (line at 15785) and for the SPX (line at 1785). Nonetheless, understand that the line only has meaning on a weekly close, which is Friday, meaning that on an intra-week basis the indexes could go much lower.

    To finish it off, those levels seem to be the minimum that the indexes will achieve, meaning that it could be more. If it is more, expect KNDI to break the 6.15-6.53 support and get back down to $5 where a double bottom might occur.

    Not looking good for the bulls this week, especially considering that the levels in the indexes I mention above are the objectives for the close this Friday, meaning that the indexes are likely to stay down most if not all of the week, and certainly lower on Friday than where they are now.

  • Reply to

    Symbol - ? Traded in US - ?

    by jimbonano Feb 3, 2016 12:35 PM
    luckyone581 luckyone581 Feb 5, 2016 11:58 AM Flag

    You know Chasen, I have to agree with your comment about this "being the best form of entertainment - what they think they know".

    Nonetheless, contrary to you I am getting tired of such "basis lack of knowledge". In fact, I have to say that I have been on this board now for 4+ months and have given 3 trades in KNDI and a couple of others in other stocks, all of which have been successful except one, and that one was a "very small loss". On other boards, when I have been that successful, I have gotten at least 1 new subscriber to my service and most cases more than one. From this board, there has not even been 1 subscriber.

    What that tells me is that this board has more ego than brains. I literally help people make money but here they seem more interested in fulfilling dreams than in actually accomplishing profits.

    It is entertainment, but then who has the time to waste on inane entertainment when "actually" helping people make money is more fulfilling and does not waste time.

  • Reply to

    Lucky, I`m still waiting for 6.50!

    by ivannikolic35 Jan 28, 2016 8:15 AM
    luckyone581 luckyone581 Feb 3, 2016 1:37 PM Flag

    By the way Gp, I have been accused by many of arrogance but the reality is that it is NOT arrogance but confidence in the knowledge I possess. If you know something you know it. After 8 years of "consistent" success (not 1 single losing year after commissions and losses are subtracted) it does mean that I have knowledge of the market that works "over and over again. If it wasn't working I would have good years and then also bad years. Consistent success is not something that many investors have.

    I do know that my knowledge is dependent on news and that I have no control over news. Then again, the 38 years of trading experience that I possess has allowed me to come up with a "trading strategy" that addresses most of the possible negatives that can occur. Diversification, 4-1 (or better) risk/reward ratios, no big exposure to any 1 stock, unemotional (no fear or greed), no ego (as far as taking a loss when wrong) are all factors that are defensive in nature and there to protect the principal while my chart knowledge shows me when opportunities from profit arise. It is all based on the very simple (but not common) idea of making more money than I lose as the primary objective.

    Think about it.

  • Reply to

    Lucky, I`m still waiting for 6.50!

    by ivannikolic35 Jan 28, 2016 8:15 AM
    luckyone581 luckyone581 Feb 3, 2016 1:12 PM Flag

    You make one very serious mistake in assuming that "any" stock is just news driven. If that was the case, the stock would not move in price between earnings reports and/or news. It would just trade sideways.

    The fact that the stock has traded from $5 up to $12 and back down to 6.71 without much news, at least not negative news, should tell you that the people trading the stocks (though not institutions) are using "something" to trade with. After all, money is money and no one is going to simply sit around and guess at what the stock is going to do. Every day there are people that want to trade the stock and make money by going from Point A to Point B and for that they need charts to know where Point A is and and where Point B is.

    There are certainly some stocks that are more susceptible to charts than others, but make no mistake about it, charts are still needed to trade any stock for the 98% of the time that there is no earnings or news reports.

  • Reply to

    Lucky, I`m still waiting for 6.50!

    by ivannikolic35 Jan 28, 2016 8:15 AM
    luckyone581 luckyone581 Feb 3, 2016 12:01 PM Flag

    Let me clear up a few things for you, to address some of your wrong assumptions.

    First of all I am 70 years old and mostly stay at home. I spend time doing chart evaluations for myself and since I am doing them anyhow there is no reason not to offer the knowledge to others for a "small" fee. It gives me a "little" extra income but more importantly it gives me a reason to spend the extra time doing it well since other are somewhat dependent on what I do. I charge a few because people do not appreciate or listen to free information.

    In addition, when I got divorced in 1998, I left with nothing (gave it all to my wife and family) and did not start trading until 2005 as I had to get back on my feet before I could get money with which to trade. I started with $5000 and now I am up over $375,000 over a period of 10 years. It is not "enough" to be playing gold with Trump. I am averaging something like a 60% return on my money, which is excellent but not something that will make me rich enough to stop doing it all.

    As far as whether my predictions are good or not, let me just say that I am like a good manager of a baseball team. I know what moves to make to increase the chances of my team winning the World Series but it certainly does not guarantee that I will. The players (stocks) still have to perform as I expect them to but that is not something I have control over. As such, I make decisions based on probability numbers and more of the time than not they work out, but not always. I have no crystal ball but I know more than most and in this market that is an edge that definitely improves your chances of success.

    I hope I have clarified your concerns and explained my situation to where you can understand the factors involved.

    One last thing, I truly care about people. I am not one of those people that just think of themselves.

  • Reply to

    Lucky, I`m still waiting for 6.50!

    by ivannikolic35 Jan 28, 2016 8:15 AM
    luckyone581 luckyone581 Feb 3, 2016 11:15 AM Flag

    It definitely can happen, if and when the indexes go lower than today's low.

    Today is starting to be a very pivotal day in the indexes and in oil prices. The lows made in both oil and the indexes today (DOW at 15960 and oil at 29,40), if broken would bring in quite a bit of additional selling right across the board in everything. If not broken and the indexes (most importantly the DOW) can get above 16107 (intra-day resistance right now), then the possibilities of the indexes, oil, and KNDI going lower will be less.

    I am leaning on lower prices but today is becoming a pivotal day.

  • luckyone581 luckyone581 Feb 2, 2016 6:11 PM Flag

    and yet...................Geely languishes in price at .38 cents, and near the low of the sideways trading range it has been on for years. Evidently, the announcement did not do much for the stock

  • luckyone581 by luckyone581 Feb 2, 2016 3:00 PM Flag

    Another Good Month for me.

    Closed out profitable trades for January per 100 shares per mention (after commission)

    MCD (short) $1034
    CLB (long) $2611
    IBM (short) $1321

    Closed positions with increase in equity above last months close minus commissions.

    IBM (short) $585
    WMT (long) $209
    KNDI (short) $531

    Total Profit for December, per 100 shares and after commissions $6291

    Closed out losing trades for January per 100 shares of each mention (including commission)

    CLB (long) $89
    GPS (short) $142
    QQQ (long) $29
    QRVO (long) $700
    MCD (short) $296

    Closed positions with decrease in equity below last months close plus commissions.

    CLB (long) $351
    EOG (long) $575
    GPS (short) $196

    Total Loss for January, per 100 shares, including commissions $2378

    Open positions in profit per 100 shares per mention as of 1/31

    CLB (long) $1782
    HAL (long) $207
    LVLT (long) $215

    Open positions with increase in equity above last months close.

    FSLR (long) $1335
    FCEL (long) $148

    Total $3677

    Open positions in loss per 100 shares per mention as of 1/31

    NONE

    Open positions with decrease in equity below last months close.

    AREX (long $165
    ENG (long) $18
    QRVO (long) $3390
    ARNA (long) $140

    Total $3713

    Status of trades for month of January per 100 shares on each mention after losses and commission subtractions.

    Profit of $3877

  • luckyone581 by luckyone581 Feb 2, 2016 2:55 PM Flag

    I need to buy KNDI at a lower price so I am spreading a rumor that based on oil prices and the indexes heading lower that the stock will do the same. Hopefully some of you strong buy and hold longs will liquidate your positions so I can get a better price. If you don't liquidate, I don't know what I will do to buy the stock lower.

    I am trying to get KNDI down to the 6.15 to 6.53 level based on the recent inability to rally and lack of positive news.

    Will you longs help me?

  • Reply to

    Lucky, I`m still waiting for 6.50!

    by ivannikolic35 Jan 28, 2016 8:15 AM
    luckyone581 luckyone581 Jan 29, 2016 12:52 PM Flag

    I have no update as of now. The market is rallying due to oil rallying and today also about the Japaneses adopting negative interest rates. Will this rally continue? Not something I can answer for you today.

    KNDI did get down to 7.31 and that is enough to be considered as a retest of the recent lows, but is the possibility of the downside drop over? that is another question I cannot answer today.

    I still feel there is a good chance this is a temporary rally and that it will dissipate, but I presently have no short positions and the ones I am heavily long (CLB, FSLR, and LVLT) are doing just great, so I am just sitting back, enjoying the ride, and keeping my eyes open.

    When I find something "tangible" about this rally, I will let you know.

    For the time being, the bulls need to close the DOW above 16485 (presently trading at 16349) to make any kind of a chart statement. I doubt that will happen today.

  • Reply to

    Smart Thing to Do

    by luckyone581 Jan 28, 2016 8:58 PM
    luckyone581 luckyone581 Jan 29, 2016 10:53 AM Flag

    Maros, my posts have been more about "general" investing principles and not all that specific to KNDI. I am trying to show people what they need to do to increase their chances of being successful "in the market" and decrease their chances of running into a disaster.

    As far as KNDI itself, it is an "iffy" trade with both positives and negatives. My decision will always be based on the charts, and on risk/reward ratios. Nonetheless, I have read so many comments here about buying this stock with eyes closed and looking at prices that are somewhat unrealistic (at least based on what is known presently) that I felt I had to make a case for the iffiness of this trade.

    That does not mean the stock cannot or will not go up, it just means "be conservative".

    If the stock drops down to 6.53 I will still likely be a buyer with $10-$12 as the objective.

  • Reply to

    Best possible case.....

    by kerklip Jan 28, 2016 3:50 PM
    luckyone581 luckyone581 Jan 29, 2016 10:47 AM Flag

    If I win the lottery, I will be rich.

  • luckyone581 by luckyone581 Jan 28, 2016 9:21 PM Flag

    I just found a site that you fundamentalists should use. It is called macroaxis and it supplies information that helps investors come up with a better idea of what a company can do, where it stands when compared with other such like companies and that offers other factors that affect the company. I strongly recommend you go there are research your company..............and other companies you may own. .

    Do a search on macroaxis and you will find it.

    Below are 2 comments specifically about KNDI

    Kandi Technologies Group Inc is now traded for 7.44 . This company has historical hype elasticity of -0.61 and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.32. Kandi Technologies Group Inc is projected to decline in value after the next headline with price expected to drop to 6.83.

    The company has return on total asset (ROA) of 0.77 % which means that it generated profit of $0.77 on every $100 spent on asset. This is way below average.

  • Reply to

    Best possible case.....

    by kerklip Jan 28, 2016 3:50 PM
    luckyone581 luckyone581 Jan 28, 2016 9:00 PM Flag

    Yes, but NOT the 2 most important people in the company!!!!

  • luckyone581 by luckyone581 Jan 28, 2016 8:58 PM Flag

    The smart thing to do with any investment is try to find reasons not to buy, not find reasons to buy. You will "always" find reasons to buy if you look deep enough (like if only 1% of the Chinese people wake up to KNDI and buy on the NASDAQ just 100 shares of the stock). The reality is that in order to protect your principal (which should be the UTMOST concern because when you lose it you are out of the game) you need to look for reasons not to buy. Once you do that, if the reasons to buy are more and stronger than the reasons not to buy, then you "consider" doing the trade.

    Remember that it is highly unlikely that any 1 good trade will make you rich, but it is certainly highly likely that any 1 bad trade will bankrupt you. As such, you should always invest defensively and not with $$ (greed) clouding your eyes.

    I still can't shake the thought that the principals of the company only have bought 35,000 shares each. That is such a small amount of shares for a principal of a company with such a high future (as you guys believe) would have. In addition, you would have thought that they would have doubled or tripled up on the drop down to $5. It is something that smells and not in a good way.

  • Reply to

    Best possible case.....

    by kerklip Jan 28, 2016 3:50 PM
    luckyone581 luckyone581 Jan 28, 2016 8:43 PM Flag

    "The best case is when you get to a growth stock BEFORE the analysts and the institutions".

    I hate to say this but that is a naive statement.

    Think about it:

    1) the layman (small investor) has less information available to them that the big investor has.

    2) Money is the biggest magnet in the world and it is highly unlikely that a layman would find the opportunity "before" the sharks with all the best analysts in the world doing nothing but research 24 hours a day would find it.
    3) Laymen are not likely to be strong enough to make a stock move "until" the big investors (hedge and institutional funds) come in.
    4) Last but not least, is that when YOU find reasons reasons to buy and that still does not get the big people involved, the first you need to do is find out "why" they haven't gotten involved and as such doubt the investment. .

    The only way that a layman can "find" such an opportunity "before" the analysts and institutions do is by blindly buying a stock and lucking out on it (something like winning the lottery).

    I also want to bring up something to your attention:

    There are 46.9 million shares outstanding in KNDI and yet the only amount listed a owned by the principals of the company at 70,000 shares

    Yu Henry lists 35,000 shares bought on February 2015
    Lewin Jerry lists 35,000 shares bought on February 2015.

    Shares were bought when stock was trading around 12.30. Would you think that when the stock dropped down to $5.05 they would have bought more? Something to think about.

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