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American Science & Engineering Inc. Message Board

luckyone581 24 posts  |  Last Activity: 14 hours ago Member since: Feb 10, 2008
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  • Reply to

    Purchased AREX

    by luckyone581 Jan 21, 2015 8:13 AM
    luckyone581 luckyone581 14 hours ago Flag

    AREX could give a buy signal today if the bulls are able to close the stock above 7.09 by at least 10 points (now trading at 7.23). On an intra-week basis there is still resistance at the 7.59 high seen on December 26th but closing prices are always more important than intra-week prices.

    A buy signal would be the first one given since June of last year, and therefore likely to have some meaning.

  • luckyone581 by luckyone581 14 hours ago Flag

    The 200-day MA, currently at 4.90, is now the key level.

    The chart suggests that at some point this week that level will be seen, especially since there is also intra-week spike high resistance at 4.90 from the rally seen on November 13th. That level held up as intra-week resistance from July to January (7 months) and has to be considered pivotal. What happens there will "tell the story".

    A daily close above 4.90 will likely bring in new buying, especially if confirmed with a second close above the line the day after.

  • Reply to

    FSLR may have bottomed.

    by luckyone581 Jan 21, 2015 3:50 PM
    luckyone581 luckyone581 Jan 26, 2015 2:17 PM Flag

    FSLR was expected to get above the 200 60-minute MA, presently at 42.85, and now that it has done it, it is now one more sign that the stock has bottomed out. Nonetheless, intra-week resistance is found here at 44.44 and stronger at 45.70 (44.20 and 45.21 on a daily closing basis). It is a bit unlikely that the bulls will be able to have success right now in getting above either of those levels and that a drop back down near to the $40 level be seen, which in turn I would use to add positions. Nonetheless, if the bulls are successful here, then a rally up to the $50 level would likely ensue.

  • luckyone581 by luckyone581 Jan 25, 2015 12:11 PM Flag

    VHC generated a green weekly close on Friday, after 4 weeks of red closes. The green weekly close makes the previous week’s close at 5.19 (4.66 on an intra-week basis) into a successful retest of the previous low weekly close at 4.52, that was in turn a successful retest of the 5-year low weekly close at 4.09, suggesting that the stock has now built a decent support/bottom for an attempt to get out of the 30-month downtrend. The stock closed near the highs of the week and further upside above last week’s high at 5.55 is likely to be seen. Resistance is found at 6.12, that includes the 100-day MA, and stronger at the 4-month high at 6.80/6.85. Probabilities favor a rally to 6.12 and then a small pull back down to the 5.50 level. Support is found at 4.80 and at 4.66 that if broken would be considered a negative sign. Probabilities favor the bulls this week.

  • luckyone581 by luckyone581 Jan 25, 2015 11:04 AM Flag

    ARNA generated another red weekly close after the announcement of a second stock offering on Tuesday. Uncertainty as to the exact price of the stock offering caused further selling even though it was speculated that the offering was made at $5.00. The stock closed on Friday at exactly the previous high weekly close at 4.53, meaning that the close next Friday will be pivotal in determining whether the stock is still in a downtrend or at least a sideways trend.

    The stock did close below the 200-day MA, currently at 4.90, the 200-week MA, currently at 5.30, and also below the previous high “daily” close at 4.70. Nonetheless, the bears will need to confirm all those breaks with further downside the entire week. The stock did close on the lows of the week and further downside below last week’s low at 4.50 is likely to be seen on Monday. Nonetheless, by Monday the offering price should be known officially and it behooves the bulls to generate new buying interest from the “get-go”, starting with a green close on Monday, above 4.70 and further upside the rest of the week, as well as a close above 5.30 next Friday, or the bears will gain an edge.

    Any green close during the week above the 200-day MA, currently at 4.90, should generate new buying interest.

  • Reply to

    FSLR may have bottomed.

    by luckyone581 Jan 21, 2015 3:50 PM
    luckyone581 luckyone581 Jan 24, 2015 8:10 PM Flag

    I am planning on averaging down this week if the stock drops back down to the 39.70-40.30 level. The action this week does suggest the stock has bottomed.

    The 43.00 level is a bit of resistance and if broken this week the stock will likely rally up to the 44.50-45.00 level and "then" generate a drop back to my desired entry point. If 43.00 is not broken this week, then the drop down to that level will likely happen before the end of the week. I believe the former scenario is more likely than the latter scenario.

    Either way, I do plan to buy shares in that area and use a stop loss around 39.06.

    I do believe oil will drop more but at these prices in FSLR, I don't believe the stock will be affected much anymore. The $50 level will soon begin to act as a magnet as $50 is a psychological level that is likely to be seen no matter what happens elsewhere.

    I am still super bullish on solar for the long-term.

  • Reply to

    FSLR may have bottomed.

    by luckyone581 Jan 21, 2015 3:50 PM
    luckyone581 luckyone581 Jan 22, 2015 3:57 PM Flag

    Paul, I am not a fundamentalist so when I open my mouth about fundamental information I can certainly be wrong. Nonetheless, simple common sense would tell you what solar does compete with oil as oil is used to run generators, plants that produce electricity........and many other things, cars, etc........

    Solar panels are expensive though in the last few years they have come down in price, making solar more competitive as an energy producer. Nonetheless, when oil goes down from $110 a barrel to $45 a barrel, and companies can buy generators and other products that produce energy for a lot less than they can buy solar panels, it does affect the demand for Solar.

    I suggest you read up on how Solar and Oil are related. I have read up on it over the past 3 years since I am a strong believer that solar will replace oil as an energy producer in the future. Because of that belief, I have been trading FSLR for that period of time.

  • Reply to

    Chart Getting Fulfilled

    by luckyone581 Jan 21, 2015 7:03 PM
    luckyone581 luckyone581 Jan 21, 2015 9:53 PM Flag

    I don't get it. My post got 3 up fingers but 6 down fingers but all the post does is give chart information. I didn't even give an opinion. Do people "dislike" information???? Knowledge is something that should be dissed?

    I need to get off this bus, I don't like heading to fantasy land.

  • luckyone581 by luckyone581 Jan 21, 2015 7:03 PM Flag

    ARNA closed today at the previous daily close breakout at 4.70. Often, a stock will test the previous breakout and if the stock closes in the green tomorrow, it will be considered exactly that.

    In addition, the 200-day MA is currently at 4.92 and if the stock closes above that level tomorrow, that too will be considered a successful retest of the line. To finish it off, the 200-week MA is currently at 5.23, and the stock did close last Friday at 5.40 and if a close above that level occurs this Friday it too will be considered a successful retest of that important line. Even if it doesn't close above 5.40 on Friday, as long as the stock does not close 2 weeks in a row on Friday's below 5.23, it will also be considered that line has been broken.

    All in all, this is a good buying opportunity.

  • Reply to

    FSLR may have bottomed.

    by luckyone581 Jan 21, 2015 3:50 PM
    luckyone581 luckyone581 Jan 21, 2015 4:28 PM Flag

    It does not yet compete but lower oil prices makes oil more price attractive to use than Solar, so falling oil prices definitely affects the price of the stock.

  • luckyone581 by luckyone581 Jan 21, 2015 3:50 PM Flag

    FSLR has gotten a 47% shave over the past 4 months, mostly because of falling oil prices that makes solar energy less competitive.

    Nonetheless, 5 week's ago the stock got down to the $40 level and though a new low was made yesterday at 39.18, the bottom line is that the stock has mostly held around the $40 level for the past 25 trading day, suggesting there is definitely buying interest here in spite of the fact that just last week oil prices made a new low below $45.

    The stock gave a "small" buy signal today on the 60-minute chart.when it broke above Friday's high at 41.06. Buy signals on the 60-minute chart are not all that reliable but that same buy signal has been given on 2 previous occasions over the past 6 weeks and on both occasions it generated enough support to stay above the buy signal area for 10 days and for 6 days respectively, suggesting that at least for the next few days the stock will be supported.

    It should be mentioned that the 200 60-minute MA has been a very reliable resistance line for the past 10 weeks and that line is presently at 43.00, meaning that it is likely the stock will rally up to that line over the next couple of days. If that line is broken and the bulls can get above 44.49, a stronger buy signal will be generated. If the bulls can get the stock above 45.70, a buy signal will be given on both the daily and weekly charts and that will be a lot more indicative. If that scenario occurs, the stock is highly likely to rally up to the $50 level where stronger resistance, both psychologically and from previous trading action, will be found.

    I believe this scenario is now possible and perhaps even likely to occur over the next week or two as I believe the $40 level will not be broken decisively. A $40 to $50 trading range could then ensue over the next 3+ months.

    I believe the stock will get up to 43.00 and then fall back to the 39.70-40.30 level where I plan to buy, using a stop loss below 39.18 and having a $50 objective.

  • luckyone581 luckyone581 Jan 21, 2015 3:22 PM Flag

    "If" is always a possibility but not a probability. Trading stocks using "ifs" is the fastest way to go broke. It is almost like playing the lottery and the "ifs" of success, which is about 13 million to 1.

    Do yourself a favor and play the probabilities as they will more often turn out in your favor than against you.

    Using common sense also works. On December 1th when AREX hit its 58-month low at 4.28, the price of oil was at $59. A week ago, crude oil got down below $45 and AREX got down to 5.01. What does that tell you????

    What it tells me is that AREX has found a bottom and is not likely to go lower, even if oil prices go lower.

    Last but not least, AREX was trading around the $4.50-$5 level back in 2008 when oil prices were around $28 and for the next 22-months it traded mostly between $5 and $10, with the $10 level being seen 3 times during that period of time and the $5 level, having been seen 4 times. That action suggests the stock will likely at least mimic that period of time and with it presently at 6.50, it means there is more upside (about $3.50) than downside (about $1.50).

    All it takes is looking at history of the stock and it clearly gives you the probabilities. Trying to "analyze" what the stock is going to do now fundamentally is more likely to give you a headache than to put profits in your pocket.

    My opinion.

  • Reply to

    Purchased AREX

    by luckyone581 Jan 21, 2015 8:13 AM
    luckyone581 luckyone581 Jan 21, 2015 12:21 PM Flag

    AREX has run into some minor resistance on the 60-minute chart that is found between 6.56 and 6.75 (high today has been 6.66). Nonetheless, other than perhaps a small pullback that could take the stock as low as 6.00, a rally up to the 7.00-7.10 level still looks likely to occur.

  • luckyone581 by luckyone581 Jan 21, 2015 8:13 AM Flag

    I purchased AREX yesterday at 5.52!

    I put out this buy mention in my newsletter on Sunday:

    AREX has been in a strong downtrend for almost 3 years but it is a big range moving stock, meaning that trades can bring in some nice profits if chosen correctly. In reading about the company and looking at the chart, this stock gave me an urge to buy.

    The stock should have continued moving lower with oil prices having dropped down to $44 dollars this past week as the stock is an oil exploration company. Nonetheless, what the stock did instead was generate a successful retest of the low at 4.28 made 5-weeks ago (when oil prices were much above $50) that suggests the stock has found a low.

    It should be also mentioned that the stock shows the $5-$6 level to be strong support, going all the way back to the 2008 period when the recession occurred and oil dropped precipitously (I believe down to the $28 level). This level of support stood up for over 1 year. This stock can "easily" rally up to the $10 level on simply a sneeze and it seems that it is now ready to do just that.

    Purchases of AREX between 5.50 and 5.75 and using a stop loss at 4.90 and having a $10 objective will offer better than a 4-1 risk/reward ratio. My rating on the trade is a 3.5 (on a scale of 1-5 with 5 being the highest).

  • luckyone581 by luckyone581 Jan 13, 2015 4:07 PM Flag

    I just did a new chart evaluation on AKS based on the action seen today and this is what came up.

    AKS now will show decent support daily close support around the 3.60-3.70 level and minor to decent daily close resistance between 4.70 and 5.00. On an intra-week basis, the stock could get up as high #$%$30 and as low as 3.44.

    Nonetheless, for the time being and until the fundamental picture changes, it is unlikely the stock will get out of that trading range.

  • luckyone581 by luckyone581 Jan 13, 2015 3:54 PM Flag

    Yesterday I was looking at the chart of AKS and at the volume and I want to point out something I found that could be of help.

    Over the past 4 months, ever since the stock dropped from 11.37 to 9.01, there have been 9 previous occasions when the stock got above 20 million shares traded. On 7 of those occasions, the stock within 1 or 2 days generated a spike or rally upward.

    On the 2 occasions when that did not happen, the first one was after the stock had already rallied from 9.01 to 10.31 and the second one was the day when the stock dropped from 7.22 to 6.47. On that occasion the stock continued lower for 5 days to 5.14 but then bounced up to 8.00.

    Volume yesterday was 28 million and today it will probably end up being the same or higher. Either the stock will generate a bounce up tomorrow (as seen 7 other times) or will continue lower (probably down to the support at 3.42) and then generate a stronger rally thereafter. The rally tomorrow is more likely than further downside, simply because of this history.

  • Reply to

    Buy-Buy-Buy

    by spanspur Jan 13, 2015 12:51 PM
    luckyone581 luckyone581 Jan 13, 2015 2:44 PM Flag

    ???? X is trading at the low for the past 14 months and RS is at 2-year lows. As to why AKS may be getting hit more today, it probably has to do with the 4.70 and 4.44 levels of support getting broken and stop loss orders getting hit.

    This is NOT a personal stock issue but an industry issue.

  • Reply to

    Buy-Buy-Buy

    by spanspur Jan 13, 2015 12:51 PM
    luckyone581 luckyone581 Jan 13, 2015 2:41 PM Flag

    I did not know that, but then again numbers are numbers and those are tough to BS about. In addition, the steel stocks are getting hit, with X now trading at the low seen for the past 14 months

  • Reply to

    Any one want to try to call a bottom?

    by jrkkek Jan 12, 2015 1:12 PM
    luckyone581 luckyone581 Jan 13, 2015 2:35 PM Flag

    3.42 is the next support level, now that 4.44 has been broken.

  • Reply to

    Buy-Buy-Buy

    by spanspur Jan 13, 2015 12:51 PM
    luckyone581 luckyone581 Jan 13, 2015 1:02 PM Flag

    could this be a reason?

    http://finance.yahoo.com/news/massive-overcapacity-steel-industry-2015-163601971.html

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