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ZIOPHARM Oncology, Inc. Message Board

luckytrufflepig 63 posts  |  Last Activity: Oct 22, 2014 12:22 PM Member since: May 4, 2012
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  • luckytrufflepig luckytrufflepig Oct 22, 2014 12:22 PM Flag

    Finally, a reasonable post. SAND is a lender of last resort and has able to cut some very tough deals over the past 18 months. The question simply boils down to how many of SAND's partners will be left standing if gold prices stay below their extraction costs for an extended period. After the massive failure at Colossus, I assume SAND's management team is somewhat chastened and will look to spread the risk better in future deals. Bought a few today and will continue to add as the likely tax-loss selling arrives thruough Nov and Dec.
    Very hard to pick a bottom or predict the tradectory of gold so we must simply bet that management can ink deals that are accretive long term.

  • Reply to

    What a shame that

    by invest_a_mint Oct 21, 2014 9:37 AM
    luckytrufflepig luckytrufflepig Oct 21, 2014 3:32 PM Flag

    I disagree. The lack of sales in EU is likely a function of pricing. TauroThieves have no IP stateside whatsoever and adressable markets (ICU, dialysis, feeding etc.) are large. Anti-Infectives are a hot space right now and this will be a relatively short trial that is somewhat derisked given the historical safety profile of the product.

  • Reply to

    What a shame that

    by invest_a_mint Oct 21, 2014 9:37 AM
    luckytrufflepig luckytrufflepig Oct 21, 2014 2:20 PM Flag

    Bottonm Line: If they garner QDIP status; we will be OK. The stock is cheap and it would make for a tiny swallow for any interested buyer.

  • Reply to

    What a shame that

    by invest_a_mint Oct 21, 2014 9:37 AM
    luckytrufflepig luckytrufflepig Oct 21, 2014 10:01 AM Flag

    To be fair, they have done much with 5 or so employees. Lawsuit filed, FDA seems to be progressing, delisting issue was resolved. The only real sore spot for me is commercialization guidence vs. current known reality. If it is a pricing issue(an I suspect it is) they will need to find a global EU partner to push back against the Catheter Crooks. ME is also a sore spot. How the heck do you announce a LOI in January and still report zero sales by mid Oct?

  • Reply to

    Shorts Remain in Full Control

    by green_side_up Oct 17, 2014 12:07 PM
    luckytrufflepig luckytrufflepig Oct 17, 2014 5:08 PM Flag

    I owe both ZIOP and XON and it really is hard to tell which is uglier! In both cases the shorts are betting that dilution occurs prior to any meaningful commercial progress. The energy piece of XON intrigues me as I think they may be able to (one day) shift the economics of the space. ZIOP is a harder bet to justify given the virtual news blackout over 2014. Die hard longs are betting near term deal and shorts are betting on yet another dilutive down round.

    No news by EOY likely means both drift lower on tax-loss selling. Any upside surprise in either issue would likely have an over-sized effect given the significant short interest in both issues. Kirk has a history of being tight-lipped so let's see if he has any more rabbits in his billionaire#$%$.

  • Reply to

    Odd Positive Price Action

    by luckytrufflepig Oct 15, 2014 8:09 PM
    luckytrufflepig luckytrufflepig Oct 16, 2014 1:12 PM Flag

    I mam prepared to hunker down through a tough EOY. Tax loss selling likely hits many of Kirk's interests and the shorts will press their advantage with the additional (shares) supply. The only way to break the shorts' siege is significant news involving a known partner and good front-end economics.

  • Reply to

    Is ZIOP ever stop bleeding?

    by vantriusa Oct 7, 2014 3:47 PM
    luckytrufflepig luckytrufflepig Oct 15, 2014 9:42 PM Flag

    I remained convinced that we either see a raise or ZIOP gets sold outright (assuming there is magic behind those curtains). ZIOP is too small from both a headcount and balance sheet perspective . Kirk needs a way to get those long-awaited 8 INDs moving forward quickly. 50 persons and $50 million in the bank will not get that done.

  • luckytrufflepig by luckytrufflepig Oct 15, 2014 8:09 PM Flag

    Up 3 pts in a terrible tape. I hope this spurt portends good news short term. Now, if Kirk can only get something done on ZIOP.

  • Reply to

    Just 5 more days.....

    by czar2558 Oct 14, 2014 7:19 PM
    luckytrufflepig luckytrufflepig Oct 15, 2014 8:06 PM Flag

    As well. They checked of many boxes(balance sheet fix, lawsuit, FDA issue) but commercialization has been disappointing. Korea is a solid year away and where the heck is the ME agreement we heard about in JANUARY.

  • Reply to

    Just 5 more days.....

    by czar2558 Oct 14, 2014 7:19 PM
    luckytrufflepig luckytrufflepig Oct 15, 2014 8:04 PM Flag

    That would be me. One and the same. Too hard to swap IDs on Yahoo.

  • Reply to

    Just 5 more days.....

    by czar2558 Oct 14, 2014 7:19 PM
    luckytrufflepig luckytrufflepig Oct 15, 2014 10:01 AM Flag

    If they manage to get QIDP status, they will either ink a very good U.S. deal(based on 10 yrs exclusivity) or this gets sold. Small swallow for any # of playersd out there (Becton, Fresenius, DaVita, etc.) So we have an EU legal lottery ticket, potential sales in ME(someday) and hopefully a good U.S. trial partner. Korea likely no meaningful for at least a year. Stock appears cheap based on those items.

  • luckytrufflepig by luckytrufflepig Oct 14, 2014 9:41 AM Flag

    Let's hope we have clarity on IND status and get an update on Middle East situation. Fingers crossed on QIDP status and the partnering opportunities same could provide. I also wonder if they will provide color re: the EU Lawsuit Lottery ticket. Not sure if that is a six month or two year process. It likely depends on whether Tauro Guys want to settle or fight to the last man.

    It would be nice to see a few Form 4s.

  • Reply to

    Slow Death

    by garyjc2 Oct 6, 2014 1:05 PM
    luckytrufflepig luckytrufflepig Oct 9, 2014 12:29 PM Flag

    I think many view this as a longer term US story with a legal lottery ticket in thye EU. We really need to see something in the Middle East soon. In a perfect world they would also ink a comprehensive EU deal which would allow them to apply commercial pressure to Tauropharm along with the cuttent legal sword being employed.
    It would be nice to see some of the nerwer directors step up and buy a few shares in the open market. To his credit, CEO Milby has been a consistant buyer of the stock.

  • Reply to

    Question for the board.....

    by czar2558 Oct 3, 2014 4:44 PM
    luckytrufflepig luckytrufflepig Oct 4, 2014 11:49 AM Flag

    I own a little. The real question here is how severe will the dilution be? They need cash but dilution is likely priced in already.

  • Reply to

    Cheap here?

    by platguru Sep 30, 2014 11:47 PM
    luckytrufflepig luckytrufflepig Oct 1, 2014 8:56 AM Flag

    We'll see. If they don't ink something big with a known counter-party , this could get cheaper as Wall street abandons hope stories---the stocks of the ECCs have been pounded over the past several months. Energy potential her intrigues me. Cancer progress is a huge question mark.

    Also, they need to get some legitimate coverage. The endless Griffon reports and inflated price targets are no longer taken seriously. Major plus here is that Bill Miller is on board. One of the smartest investors of all time.

  • Reply to

    Buyers stepping up

    by lwe6638 Sep 26, 2014 3:06 PM
    luckytrufflepig luckytrufflepig Sep 30, 2014 10:50 AM Flag

    Big bids are (sadly) often head fakes. When you start to see offers getting lifted, the storm is over.

  • luckytrufflepig by luckytrufflepig Sep 30, 2014 10:21 AM Flag

    XON in the syn fuel space. Very immature but they plan on using NG as base stock to create higher value products(lubricants etc.)

  • Reply to

    Willing Seller

    by luckytrufflepig Sep 29, 2014 9:53 AM
    luckytrufflepig luckytrufflepig Sep 30, 2014 9:47 AM Flag

    Agree. profoundly disappointing that we have not heard of any sales in the ME yet. Q3 is over today. When you listen to the last few CCs, in retrospect, some of the early hopes of B/E by year end seem silly---best laid plans of mice and men. As you noted, at least they have made solid progress on FDA front, solved the delisting issue, and have finally launched legal action. All major positives.

  • luckytrufflepig by luckytrufflepig Sep 29, 2014 9:53 AM Flag

    out there. It seems like $2 is a good sale for someone who continues to offer shares.

  • Reply to

    Label Expansion Approved!!!!!

    by steve.higgins16 Sep 22, 2014 8:05 AM
    luckytrufflepig luckytrufflepig Sep 24, 2014 9:01 AM Flag

    Filing IND is step one. Typically 30 day waiting period. If all is well they can begin trial. At that point they can also apply for GAIN Act status. Again, there is a brief waiting period until we get thumbs up or thumbs down on additional 5 year exclusivity. I think sales in the US might occur in 2016 if all goes acccording to plan(solid trial data, FDA /approves drug). The interesting thing here is who will be the partner? DaVita? Fresenius? One of the large hospital suppliers? Maybe even a longshot such as one of the large HMOs.

ZIOP
3.24+0.44(+15.71%)Oct 24 4:00 PMEDT

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