That is the double-edged sword here. Small staff size lowers burn rate but often causes delays. they will not be running a $500M sales operations---someone else will and they will collect royalties or be bought out entirely. Lot's of ways to win here. Be patient---this story has a happy ending.
As yesterday's downdraft (and today's bounce) demonstrate, this issue still quite illiquid. A small amount of buying or selling can quickly move this 10%. All of the price action is noice. If Milby and Co. execute on any level within the next month or so people should take note. I also suspect that many potential partners will do a back of the napkin calculation and quickly figure that they could own both US future rights AND current EU sales for what they would consider a nominal amount. This will get very interesting.
Streaming companies are essentially lenders to high risk (marginal or small) mining operations that may not have the ability to acess more traditional capital sources. . When gold price drops under "all in" cost of production many of the marginal producers get whacked. Such is the nature of this type of financing.
I feel your pain. 6 years in and unsure what we now have. To be fair Lewis /Bagley spent the first 2 years running an under capitalized/under-staffed entity. This was originally a Paramount project and their usual MO was to create issuers with thin balance sheets to leave the financing window open down the road for those that showed promise. That is a very tough model to prosper under.
My difficulty is that although all corporate focus is on synthetics the Pali effect remains in that we still have it being used the SCLC trial and the combo IL12/Pali trial in breast. We never got a data release so how is it possible to ascertain why the PICASSO III trial extended???? It was either something was working (treatment arm extending) or enrollment was behind schedule. I can't think of any other rationale. The initial PR on PICASSO III was very light on detail and it was emphatically stated that the drug could not get approved based on the data yet yesterday it was hinted that the drug worked in certain subgroups. I think the market entirely discounts the likelihood of Pali being efficacious in any setting but I am not sure that is correct. Different cancers are just that---different diseases .
The odd thing is that the stock is trading as if there is no anticipation of any upside surprise form the data this weekend yet some of the near term out of the money calls are priced as if a surprise is in the cards. Very strange indeed.
If there is any hope in either of the residual Pali programs and /or we see compelling data this weekend the stock could move given the over-sized short interest. If not, this could take a while as the synthetic programs are still pretty immature. I guess the other wild card is brain cancer. The FDA has some hyper accelerated fast track designations for deadly diseases with no current viable treatment options.
My bet remains that Kirk likely cracks the code long term but this is a very tough one to handicap in the short term. Good Luck
Concur. JL seemed to be reading from his "great things are around the corner, just not the next corner" script. Many folks simply take the aforementioned with 7 grains of salt given the track record or JL's prior "paradigm shifting" assertions. He is a very, very smart man but many folks are simply no longer believers.
Well, I expect to hear if this is a "one and done" trial or a multi-part affair They likely submitted proposed trial size etc. to FDA and are simply awaiting response/modifications. Next step is getting it funded. Fingers crossed.
I remain hopeful that these guys have pushed their luck too far. Good news would likely generate an over-sized response.
We never got PFS numbers or anything else substantive. Essentially investors were told "there is no way this drug would be approved in STS" PERIOD. No efficacy data, no safety data, no subset breakout--NADA.
Well, the first test will be to see what kind of partnering deals are out there after CRMD and FDA negotiate trial parameters. This could end quickly if the counterparty(s) realize the market potential of the product and come to the conclusion that owning the global cow is better than owning a portion of milk sales in the U.S.
I hear your frustration,. So many promises of paradigm shifts and partnerships being right around the corner. I think the smallish legacy shareholder base that still remains is officially in the "show me" mode. For the life of me, I cannot figure out why the PICASSO III data was never released. The optimist in me want to think it has some effect on the Breast/ SCLC trial(s). The realist in me fears the trial may have been late to enroll(explaining the extension) of somehow screwed up outside of the U.S..
I think CEO Milby has finally engaged some administrative support. Hopefully they will present a more professional packge going forward. CEO/CFO/CSO here have all been asked to stretch. These guys raised the last 3MM themselves. Hard to ask for much more.
The key here will be if they can partner sales quickly in either middle east or asia. That would give them some breathing room. Also, I am very interested to see who ponies up on the U.S. trial. The "who" will be telling. Outside shot that one of the the counter-parties in U.S. trial negotiations may just decide to take them out. A big boy could quickly ramp sales in EU and would own 100% of U.S. free and clear. Interesting times.
Please never use DREAM TEAM again in reference to ZIOP. See below--
Academic smart is not guarentee of success. I will take Mr. Kirk's business smarts.
NEW HAVEN, CT SEPTEMBER 14 - Newly formed and privately held ZIOPHARM, Inc., headed by chief executive officer Jonathan J. Lewis, MD, PhD announced the members of its senior management team whose positions are effective immediately.
"This is a 'Dream Team' for a cancer products company," said Dr. Lewis, former chief medical officer of Antigenics, Inc. who earlier pioneered cancer research at Yale and Memorial Sloan-Kettering.
"Each has proven himself many times over in his functional area, and together they bring enormous expertise and experience on how to do things right the first time - a rare finding in any business, and an especially important one in a business dedicated to bringing life-saving medicines to market as quickly, carefully, and effectively as possible."
This quote was from 2004----- so much for a lost decade.
Sales in Germany initiated but not yet official--paperwork snafu with regional authorities. FDA meeting seemed VERY positive--potential fast track. Still waiting for PROSL. Commercial partnering progress was the weak point of the call. It is very hard to books substantial sales with 4 guys on the ground in Germany. They need a wholesale channel in Middle East and/or Asia. Management seemed open to questions (as usual). It was nice to have German sales lead on the call. He seemed upbeat. I would grade the call a solid B for organization and effort.