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Trius Therapeutics, Inc. (TSRX) Message Board

luckytrufflepig 120 posts  |  Last Activity: Oct 17, 2014 5:08 PM Member since: May 4, 2012
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  • Reply to

    Shorts Remain in Full Control

    by green_side_up Oct 17, 2014 12:07 PM
    luckytrufflepig luckytrufflepig Oct 17, 2014 5:08 PM Flag

    I owe both ZIOP and XON and it really is hard to tell which is uglier! In both cases the shorts are betting that dilution occurs prior to any meaningful commercial progress. The energy piece of XON intrigues me as I think they may be able to (one day) shift the economics of the space. ZIOP is a harder bet to justify given the virtual news blackout over 2014. Die hard longs are betting near term deal and shorts are betting on yet another dilutive down round.

    No news by EOY likely means both drift lower on tax-loss selling. Any upside surprise in either issue would likely have an over-sized effect given the significant short interest in both issues. Kirk has a history of being tight-lipped so let's see if he has any more rabbits in his billionaire#$%$.

  • Reply to

    Odd Positive Price Action

    by luckytrufflepig Oct 15, 2014 8:09 PM
    luckytrufflepig luckytrufflepig Oct 16, 2014 1:12 PM Flag

    I mam prepared to hunker down through a tough EOY. Tax loss selling likely hits many of Kirk's interests and the shorts will press their advantage with the additional (shares) supply. The only way to break the shorts' siege is significant news involving a known partner and good front-end economics.

  • Reply to

    Is ZIOP ever stop bleeding?

    by vantriusa Oct 7, 2014 3:47 PM
    luckytrufflepig luckytrufflepig Oct 15, 2014 9:42 PM Flag

    I remained convinced that we either see a raise or ZIOP gets sold outright (assuming there is magic behind those curtains). ZIOP is too small from both a headcount and balance sheet perspective . Kirk needs a way to get those long-awaited 8 INDs moving forward quickly. 50 persons and $50 million in the bank will not get that done.

  • luckytrufflepig by luckytrufflepig Oct 15, 2014 8:09 PM Flag

    Up 3 pts in a terrible tape. I hope this spurt portends good news short term. Now, if Kirk can only get something done on ZIOP.

  • Reply to

    Just 5 more days.....

    by czar2558 Oct 14, 2014 7:19 PM
    luckytrufflepig luckytrufflepig Oct 15, 2014 8:06 PM Flag

    As well. They checked of many boxes(balance sheet fix, lawsuit, FDA issue) but commercialization has been disappointing. Korea is a solid year away and where the heck is the ME agreement we heard about in JANUARY.

  • Reply to

    Just 5 more days.....

    by czar2558 Oct 14, 2014 7:19 PM
    luckytrufflepig luckytrufflepig Oct 15, 2014 8:04 PM Flag

    That would be me. One and the same. Too hard to swap IDs on Yahoo.

  • Reply to

    Just 5 more days.....

    by czar2558 Oct 14, 2014 7:19 PM
    luckytrufflepig luckytrufflepig Oct 15, 2014 10:01 AM Flag

    If they manage to get QIDP status, they will either ink a very good U.S. deal(based on 10 yrs exclusivity) or this gets sold. Small swallow for any # of playersd out there (Becton, Fresenius, DaVita, etc.) So we have an EU legal lottery ticket, potential sales in ME(someday) and hopefully a good U.S. trial partner. Korea likely no meaningful for at least a year. Stock appears cheap based on those items.

  • luckytrufflepig by luckytrufflepig Oct 14, 2014 9:41 AM Flag

    Let's hope we have clarity on IND status and get an update on Middle East situation. Fingers crossed on QIDP status and the partnering opportunities same could provide. I also wonder if they will provide color re: the EU Lawsuit Lottery ticket. Not sure if that is a six month or two year process. It likely depends on whether Tauro Guys want to settle or fight to the last man.

    It would be nice to see a few Form 4s.

  • Reply to

    Slow Death

    by garyjc2 Oct 6, 2014 1:05 PM
    luckytrufflepig luckytrufflepig Oct 9, 2014 12:29 PM Flag

    I think many view this as a longer term US story with a legal lottery ticket in thye EU. We really need to see something in the Middle East soon. In a perfect world they would also ink a comprehensive EU deal which would allow them to apply commercial pressure to Tauropharm along with the cuttent legal sword being employed.
    It would be nice to see some of the nerwer directors step up and buy a few shares in the open market. To his credit, CEO Milby has been a consistant buyer of the stock.

  • Reply to

    Question for the board.....

    by czar2558 Oct 3, 2014 4:44 PM
    luckytrufflepig luckytrufflepig Oct 4, 2014 11:49 AM Flag

    I own a little. The real question here is how severe will the dilution be? They need cash but dilution is likely priced in already.

  • Reply to

    Cheap here?

    by platguru Sep 30, 2014 11:47 PM
    luckytrufflepig luckytrufflepig Oct 1, 2014 8:56 AM Flag

    We'll see. If they don't ink something big with a known counter-party , this could get cheaper as Wall street abandons hope stories---the stocks of the ECCs have been pounded over the past several months. Energy potential her intrigues me. Cancer progress is a huge question mark.

    Also, they need to get some legitimate coverage. The endless Griffon reports and inflated price targets are no longer taken seriously. Major plus here is that Bill Miller is on board. One of the smartest investors of all time.

  • Reply to

    Buyers stepping up

    by lwe6638 Sep 26, 2014 3:06 PM
    luckytrufflepig luckytrufflepig Sep 30, 2014 10:50 AM Flag

    Big bids are (sadly) often head fakes. When you start to see offers getting lifted, the storm is over.

  • luckytrufflepig by luckytrufflepig Sep 30, 2014 10:21 AM Flag

    XON in the syn fuel space. Very immature but they plan on using NG as base stock to create higher value products(lubricants etc.)

  • Reply to

    Willing Seller

    by luckytrufflepig Sep 29, 2014 9:53 AM
    luckytrufflepig luckytrufflepig Sep 30, 2014 9:47 AM Flag

    Agree. profoundly disappointing that we have not heard of any sales in the ME yet. Q3 is over today. When you listen to the last few CCs, in retrospect, some of the early hopes of B/E by year end seem silly---best laid plans of mice and men. As you noted, at least they have made solid progress on FDA front, solved the delisting issue, and have finally launched legal action. All major positives.

  • luckytrufflepig by luckytrufflepig Sep 29, 2014 9:53 AM Flag

    out there. It seems like $2 is a good sale for someone who continues to offer shares.

  • Reply to

    Label Expansion Approved!!!!!

    by steve.higgins16 Sep 22, 2014 8:05 AM
    luckytrufflepig luckytrufflepig Sep 24, 2014 9:01 AM Flag

    Filing IND is step one. Typically 30 day waiting period. If all is well they can begin trial. At that point they can also apply for GAIN Act status. Again, there is a brief waiting period until we get thumbs up or thumbs down on additional 5 year exclusivity. I think sales in the US might occur in 2016 if all goes acccording to plan(solid trial data, FDA /approves drug). The interesting thing here is who will be the partner? DaVita? Fresenius? One of the large hospital suppliers? Maybe even a longshot such as one of the large HMOs.

  • Reply to

    Label Expansion Approved!!!!!

    by steve.higgins16 Sep 22, 2014 8:05 AM
    luckytrufflepig luckytrufflepig Sep 22, 2014 9:13 AM Flag

    This is very good news. Milby and Co. are beginning to execute. I remain hopeful that we see IND short term and that they move toward GAIN Act inclusion soon thereafter. TauroPharm lawsuit is a wild card. I sure hope that CRMD is going to be very aggressive. Maybe Elliot will sieze their BMWs!

  • Reply to

    I hate warrants

    by luckytrufflepig Sep 21, 2014 8:57 PM
    luckytrufflepig luckytrufflepig Sep 21, 2014 9:06 PM Flag

    Sorry, financials are oddly presented. It looks like there was a 1 for 5 reverse(consolidation) of old $1 strike derivatives, so the # of wts is only 1/5 as many.

  • luckytrufflepig by luckytrufflepig Sep 21, 2014 8:57 PM Flag

    19 million wts with a strike of $5 are a double- edged sword. Sure, they could become additional capital down the road but they also permits folks to lean at will (essentially a covered short) in choppy markets. Does anyone have a handle as to who owns the majority of these derivatives? Were they part of an early public deal or an institutional placement?

  • Reply to

    why down so much?

    by fireballmoney Sep 18, 2014 2:32 PM
    luckytrufflepig luckytrufflepig Sep 19, 2014 11:30 AM Flag

    Accurate post. I believe the remaining longs are here due to the Kirk connection.My thesis remains that we will not see a partnering but rather an outright sale of the company by someone with the deep pockets and bandwidth to move Kirk's oncology aspirations forward in a timely fashion. ZIOP holds the keys to the entire human oncology space but it is too small both financially and headcount wise to build this out. IF we assume Intrexon has meaningful technology, they will find a way to realize a sale and move on to a better resourced partner. KITE has a significant valuation based on some very early stage programs. IF IF IF ZiOP can show us any meaningful progress (brain cancer perhaps) the tide will turn. Until then, shorts own the playing field. Buy at your own risk but not for a quick trade because billionaires tend to have long timelines.

    The good news: Kirk has a track record of being a fair partner to public shareholders. I added a few yesterday @ 2.99. I am probably too early since; well...... I am ALWAYS too early.

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