No one knows about Belviq, give it time. Wall Street bet heavily against this drug and this company and lost this bet. JPMorgan announced with pride in an entire quarter they did not lose money on day on their trading. Let Wall Street get on the right side of this trade and they will let it fly.
In the words of the ultimate #$%$ and cheat, "Bulls make money, Bears make money, but pigs get slaughtered". You shorts had the chance to cover at 4.05 and in the 5,s and now the low 6's.
They don't have much time left to play those games so they need to be very effective these last couple months. I would not taunt them to much, we have seen how effective they are in taking this stock down, I am not surprised about anything. Freeing up another 100k to buy lower if it comes.
They just started today we will not see the effects of the TV ads for a few weeks. It takes times to build brand name recognition. Someone has to see it a few times, make the call to their doctor to get an appointment. A couple weeks to get in, then going to fill the script... 90 days on the program for that new doctor to see results...
BUT ITS COMING ! :-)
You need to look at the bigger picture. If the leaders of this country are telling insurance companies they can't refuse to cover obesity drugs because they believe it is a life style choice or a vanity item, then they are sending a loud message. The views on obesity have changed and if they are changing those for the government workers, those changes are soon coming to Medicare and Medicaid. How many are covered under Medicare or Medicaid? Soon very soon we will be at over 80% coverage.
think we would see this territory again. The drug is approved and being marketed, Aerosurf is moving forward. Guess we are throwing the baby out with the water. I was worried about the price during the Bio Tech sell off but it held up well. Now that the market is recovering we are going down. Crazy.
I am just amazed at the price level this stock is trading at when you consider its true potential... This is nuts, but heck what a great opportunity for many to get on board. The good news is all that money that went screaming from the high flying Bio Techs is going to look for great opportunities when they pile back into the sector. We will have billions of investment dollars looking for the next big Bio runner. If I were a short I would be seriously concerned at this point...
We have over 130 million potential patients if we just got 1 million of them to go on the drug that is 2.4 Billion a year in revenue.
Canada has a little over 20 million total population and Brazil and SK are small markets as well. Mexico has a monster market like the US, but they all will add revenue streams to Arena when they finally are all approved. But for now we have plenty of money to make here in the US. When Medicare and Medicaid get on board scripting weight loss drugs we will have over 80% coverage.
I guess that depends on your perspective. I just watched a Latuda ad for Biopolar folks. They said the drug could be fatal or cause death 4 times folks. More then 2/3 of that commercial was safe harbor disclosures and they were scary disclosures...
This commercial will help to build brand awareness, it puts to rest all of the noise about will they or won't they actually launch the TV ad campaign. We now have 12 weeks of market share growth over the competition and with these ads that growth is going to continue. Not a whole lot of stuff that can be spun with FUD left.
Ads started today, a work day. Most doctors are at their offices not watching TV during the day. But over time they might see the ad, but even if they don't patients will and they will come in and ask about it.
Just watched a Latuda ad for Biopolar folks. They said the drug could be fatal or cause death 4 times folks. FOUR times in their disclosure and those disclosures took up 2/3 of the commercial...
The official end of the road for Qsymia is when the results are made known from the Bel Phen then we will have an apples to apples comparison. Bel Phen will crush Qsymia's Top Phen hands down without the risks...
We need to build a brand name and this commercial is a good start. I like it much better then the Magazine ads that say, " you could be carrying around something more then weight".... It hits home for the uncontrollable desire to eat and the games I am sure many go through daily. I think that is a great message to send and in truth that is what Belviq does and that was what the commercial should have been about. Not hey you will lose 30 pounds look at the before and after.... Those will come way down the line.
Full disclosure and you throw out the real risks and the potential unknown risks to cover your but. It reads just like the warning label does. I think they will fine tune it or tweak it as needed. Several of the risks they list did not happen even 1 time for the 8,000 patients that tried the drug. But what happens when 120,000 people get on the drug? 500,000 get on the drug? When the long term studies are done and none of those side effects have shown up, they will still run the safe harbor disclosure to cover their legal departments concerns.