They are watching Q over Q and Y over Y numbers. They will adjust their price targets and their projections after they see what the second quarter looks like....
It should not have gone there the first time or this time. We have had no bad news the entire year. Sales are growing, insurance coverage is 1 year ahead of schedule, we have tripled the sales staff and based on the last CC for Eisai, they still believe this is one of their primary drugs to grow the company for the next 10 years.
But you could be right.
Go pull my old post "Break down of this 6473 reveals a potential trend starting to show" 9 months ago. IT will clearly show you I am referring to the entire obesity agent market not just Belviq and Qsymia... But I have stated this before in the past and you know it.
Ooops hit return.
All of what you say is correct, the question is what are you going to do with the information? Are there real legit reasons for the above? Have those issues been addressed?
In the end it is your money and your decision, you have to invest according to your convictions.. that is how you can stay the course...
Yup they were a big disappointment to me as well. IR is not going to communicate anything, they have been by the book the entire time. They file all of their documents with the SEC when they are required to do so and nothing more. Oh I disagree, many will come back only they will come back after the stock has moved higher and the drug starts to sell more.
You should probably tell Icahn, Buffet and Ackman that, they don't seem to agree with you.
What about my post is dreams? Actions speak louder then words and history is the evidence of that action... Are scripts for IMS up or down ? Are scripts for Symphony up or down. Will our numbers be higher then last quarter and last year? Has Belviq commercial ran 2597 times as of that post since the launch of the TV campaign?
All we know is that the CEO planned a sale and sold shares. Everything else is assumptions and speculation. We don't know why he did it and probably never will. Lets see what happens when his stock options mature. Lets see if he sinks a ton of cash into the stock at 1.80 a share and sits on those shares.. I am betting he does... and for me that will answer why he sold. To pay his taxes and have the cash to exercise his next round of options without going into debt and paying interest.
The only way this ends is you sell and move on or you hold and wait for Belviq to become a household name. Nothing else to do. Last year, after a couple bad moves made by management (IMHO) I put up a couple posts that were not negative but looking at the glass a little differently. I got hammered for flipping and even accused of being a short. I wish I had looked at that more closely and sold, the writing was on the wall, but my fundamental story kept me in the stock. We have the first approved FDA weight loss drug in 13 years, safe and effective with no REMS. The drug has multiple indications and a potential patient base of over 140 million people. Rome was not built in a day and a block buster can not happen overnight unless we are hitting on all 12 cylinders and the stars lined up. The truth is we have not been firing on all 12 cylinders of a Lambo, we have been firing on all 4 cylinders of a Ford escort but guess what, The Ford will still get us to our destination. Not as fast and not as sexy but we will still get there.
Scripts have gone up from last quarter so I highly doubt that Eisai gave them some lower sales signal. Eisai just brought on 200 more sales reps and we are approaching 2600 commercials in 3 months. All signs of a company that plans on expanding their market and growing their market... 100k per month but what is his net? 50k ( 39% Fed and 12% CA)? He is not going to take money out of his cash flow to purchase long term stock holdings, he gets to sell at 5.80 and purchase the options at 1.80 compounding his growth while the stock price stays up.. Traders here do it all the time. Sell at 6.50 buy more shares with the same money when it gets down to 5.50...
Anthony, look at the big picture not week over week it will drive you crazy. Do you believe that Belviq and Bel Phen will be major sellers in 12 months to 18 months? Do you believe we can get to break even operations by end of this year or middle of next year? (that will stop the cash burn, so it is an important crossing point).
Approaching 70% insurance coverage... and for a drug that will help you lost 13%-18% of your BMI safely, WORTH EVERY PENNY. I can't even go to a ball game have a hot dog and bear for 2 for that kind of money.
Trying to decide which ones to buy, so many options and not enough money. :-) That is a high quality problem these days. You in gale?
It is going to take time to duplicate that success. Belviq was studied more and put through more hoops then any other weight loss drug in history and it still got approved. Belviq has more weight loss as a single agent weight loss drug then Fen or Phen and any others out there. Once the safety trials of Bel Phen are completed and the results are out, I think you will see even more doctors get on board. Keep in mind that 150,000 scripts per week of Phen are still being filled, what is going to happen when those cycling on Phen find out if they add Belviq to their routine that they will drop 13-18 percent of the BMI? And if a large percentage of those do get on Bel Phen and start to drop weight like crazy what do you think that will do?
This is going to take longer then many of us thought, not because the drug did not work or Arena management sux. It is going to take longer because the doctors are much more reluctant then we thought. But when you consider that after a year on the market Eisai convinced almost 50,000 doctors (my estimate for end of quarter number) to try scripting Belviq for their patients, that is a major accomplishment. And a great base to build off of, 50,000 scripting doctors are enough to get us well past break even if they become convinced that Belviq is the answer for their obese patients after they have seen great results.
A planned sale is a planned sale, we have seen insiders sell every time their options get exercised. That has never caused a 20% sell off. I posted a post yesterday calling into question his actions and the amazement I felt after listening to how excited he has been for 2 years to see the sell. But everyone has reasons for selling. He has a ton of options coming due soon and he needs the cash to exercise them, many be will be using that cash to compound his growth. We don't know why he did it, but we have been strapped with this management since the beginning.
If you don't like the management or their track record that is a valid reason to sell a stock and move one. I have seen many management teams taking millions out of a public company only to drive them into Bankruptcy. While I think Jack and company have made some major mistakes along the way and I would have played it differently, I don;t think they are trying to kill Arena or destroy its value. Clearly Wall Street does not like or trust our leaders, because they have dissed them and challenged them at every step.... When you consider how many companies will be hurt if Belviq actually aids say 30 million obese people in losing weight and controlling their appetites, you can certainly see why it is hated. All the food that won't be bought, all the insulin that won't be bought, all of the medications that will be dropped and no longer used as these folks shed pounds and medications getting healthy. They mock and bash and make fun of the very thing they fear.
I don't have them updated on my excel, I am a couple weeks behind. Been very busy these days... will get them updated this weekend.
from the bashers and the Jack haters.... We are over 10k on IMS and half way to 13k on symphony and we beat all of the obesity agents and Q again. We keep taking market share week after week. 2,597 commercials since the launch of the TV ads on April 15th. Sales reps can now tell reluctant doctors that Belviq has been on the market for over a year an not one single major event has been reported. This is bigger then folks here want to let on. I think that is why the bear raid now. This quarter will turn out to be a very big quarter, YoY and QoQ we will have seen scripts up significantly, insurance coverage needle will move up again, total doctors that have scripted the drug will be close to 50,000. That is a very large base of doctors that will have dipped their toe in the waters.