The value of a stock is not always represented in the current price of the stock. On this we agree. It has been said that the short term pricing action of a stock is a popularity contest and the long term price is a vote.
And the closer we get to those events the stock price will start to creep up in anticipation of the news...
This is a growth story and a binary story. We are back to valuing the company based on the pipeline until Belviq issues are worked out. So most institutions are not buying these types of companies for cash flow and profits, they are buying the science and the probability that the drugs will be successful.
We will have 5 drugs completing their Phase 2 proof of concepts next year. If 1 of them looks great we are shooting up, if all 5 show great promise shorts will get wiped out.
While I am long and agree with the long term sentiment, I have to say the shorts and the bashers that were really short have made a fortune on this ride down.
I don't count the 13 a share garbage because that was there for only a few trades and we then had to deal with 11 months of DEA scheduling before we could even start to market it. By that time we were down in the 7-8 range, I think we even dipped into the 6's if my memory serves me well. I guess I could look it up. From 6-8 to 2 bucks they did make some money.... I hope they cover and take their profits, because there is not much more they can get out of it. 1.80 to the down side and 5 Phase 2 drugs and Belviq to the upside.
That is 100% accurate, Craig Audet stated that on many occasions. They went after the low hanging fruit. The problem is they picked the wrong partner, the revenue did not come in as anticipated and they are still shell shocked....
Well don't worry your little head about that, they will fall into the retained earnings column and add to the NOL which are of value down the road when we start to make money off of the drugs that are in the market. OR when someone buys us out and wants to take advantage of the NOL and the tax holiday that Arena enjoys.
No way for them to know that, it takes the 13f to see what really happened... They are using an algorithm to guess at this point.
Today's activity is starting to look like a bottom is forming..... We won't know for sure until it is well in the past. :-)
I was just offering a reasonable explanation why smaller BP are buying up others and not us. Share price in a manipulated stock really says nothing much. I have been in many a stock that were taken down more then 50% over short periods and longer ones. Only to go back up and continue much higher... IT was a take down nothing more. We were trading in the 3-5 range while waiting for the pipe to advance... A 1.1-1.3 billion dollar value was reasonable for a company with 5 drugs in Phase 2 ...
But we know that is not true, we know that BP has been talking with Jack and Company. So they just did not invite anyone else to the party.
While I would love to see a partnership, I think I would rather just see Jack sell off the company. He does not value his shareholders and Wall Street places no confidence in his management team. I would prefer the buyout to be all stock for stock tho, that way I could stay on board but with a better IR, PR and management.