The only way this ends is you sell and move on or you hold and wait for Belviq to become a household name. Nothing else to do. Last year, after a couple bad moves made by management (IMHO) I put up a couple posts that were not negative but looking at the glass a little differently. I got hammered for flipping and even accused of being a short. I wish I had looked at that more closely and sold, the writing was on the wall, but my fundamental story kept me in the stock. We have the first approved FDA weight loss drug in 13 years, safe and effective with no REMS. The drug has multiple indications and a potential patient base of over 140 million people. Rome was not built in a day and a block buster can not happen overnight unless we are hitting on all 12 cylinders and the stars lined up. The truth is we have not been firing on all 12 cylinders of a Lambo, we have been firing on all 4 cylinders of a Ford escort but guess what, The Ford will still get us to our destination. Not as fast and not as sexy but we will still get there.
Scripts have gone up from last quarter so I highly doubt that Eisai gave them some lower sales signal. Eisai just brought on 200 more sales reps and we are approaching 2600 commercials in 3 months. All signs of a company that plans on expanding their market and growing their market... 100k per month but what is his net? 50k ( 39% Fed and 12% CA)? He is not going to take money out of his cash flow to purchase long term stock holdings, he gets to sell at 5.80 and purchase the options at 1.80 compounding his growth while the stock price stays up.. Traders here do it all the time. Sell at 6.50 buy more shares with the same money when it gets down to 5.50...
Anthony, look at the big picture not week over week it will drive you crazy. Do you believe that Belviq and Bel Phen will be major sellers in 12 months to 18 months? Do you believe we can get to break even operations by end of this year or middle of next year? (that will stop the cash burn, so it is an important crossing point).
Approaching 70% insurance coverage... and for a drug that will help you lost 13%-18% of your BMI safely, WORTH EVERY PENNY. I can't even go to a ball game have a hot dog and bear for 2 for that kind of money.
Trying to decide which ones to buy, so many options and not enough money. :-) That is a high quality problem these days. You in gale?
It is going to take time to duplicate that success. Belviq was studied more and put through more hoops then any other weight loss drug in history and it still got approved. Belviq has more weight loss as a single agent weight loss drug then Fen or Phen and any others out there. Once the safety trials of Bel Phen are completed and the results are out, I think you will see even more doctors get on board. Keep in mind that 150,000 scripts per week of Phen are still being filled, what is going to happen when those cycling on Phen find out if they add Belviq to their routine that they will drop 13-18 percent of the BMI? And if a large percentage of those do get on Bel Phen and start to drop weight like crazy what do you think that will do?
This is going to take longer then many of us thought, not because the drug did not work or Arena management sux. It is going to take longer because the doctors are much more reluctant then we thought. But when you consider that after a year on the market Eisai convinced almost 50,000 doctors (my estimate for end of quarter number) to try scripting Belviq for their patients, that is a major accomplishment. And a great base to build off of, 50,000 scripting doctors are enough to get us well past break even if they become convinced that Belviq is the answer for their obese patients after they have seen great results.
A planned sale is a planned sale, we have seen insiders sell every time their options get exercised. That has never caused a 20% sell off. I posted a post yesterday calling into question his actions and the amazement I felt after listening to how excited he has been for 2 years to see the sell. But everyone has reasons for selling. He has a ton of options coming due soon and he needs the cash to exercise them, many be will be using that cash to compound his growth. We don't know why he did it, but we have been strapped with this management since the beginning.
If you don't like the management or their track record that is a valid reason to sell a stock and move one. I have seen many management teams taking millions out of a public company only to drive them into Bankruptcy. While I think Jack and company have made some major mistakes along the way and I would have played it differently, I don;t think they are trying to kill Arena or destroy its value. Clearly Wall Street does not like or trust our leaders, because they have dissed them and challenged them at every step.... When you consider how many companies will be hurt if Belviq actually aids say 30 million obese people in losing weight and controlling their appetites, you can certainly see why it is hated. All the food that won't be bought, all the insulin that won't be bought, all of the medications that will be dropped and no longer used as these folks shed pounds and medications getting healthy. They mock and bash and make fun of the very thing they fear.
I don't have them updated on my excel, I am a couple weeks behind. Been very busy these days... will get them updated this weekend.
from the bashers and the Jack haters.... We are over 10k on IMS and half way to 13k on symphony and we beat all of the obesity agents and Q again. We keep taking market share week after week. 2,597 commercials since the launch of the TV ads on April 15th. Sales reps can now tell reluctant doctors that Belviq has been on the market for over a year an not one single major event has been reported. This is bigger then folks here want to let on. I think that is why the bear raid now. This quarter will turn out to be a very big quarter, YoY and QoQ we will have seen scripts up significantly, insurance coverage needle will move up again, total doctors that have scripted the drug will be close to 50,000. That is a very large base of doctors that will have dipped their toe in the waters.
Am I sure about what?
Sales are not declining. IMS and Symphony both have been under reported since the very start so we won't know the real numbers until the quarterly report. Flat week over week or slightly down on their numbers does not really tell the real story but you know this already.
I am sure they will be up significantly quarter over quarter and they will show a continued growth in scripts, doctors scripting and much better results then the studies indicated. We have now crossed over the 1 year on the market mark with no major events reported from Belviq users and we have had 10's of thousands of folks on it. That will give many doctors the confidence to allow their patients to try Belviq.
Insurance coverage is increasing as well. While the progress has been painfully show we have still had regular progress on all fronts.
Eisai is doing. Getting to hear the I am cheap speech and don't like to spend money. I just don't get him selling on the eve of Eisais big re launch of Belviq. Today is the 7th and the Eisai has started their sales meetings and the motivational break outs and classes. They are going to be launching new initiatives and getting their sales staff pumped to take us to the next level.
Selling half his position makes no sense what so ever to me. Even if he is being forced out or retiring, why would he sell half his stock after pointing out several times he has not been selling any of his shares. Even if he leaves he still believes in Belviq and the market potential for the drug he spent 10 years developing.
There have been several observed adverse side effects from taking Belviq.
Added expense of new clothes purchases.
Added expenses of vacations and trips now that you look good and feel good.
Reduced expenses on your current medication.
Reduced expenses on food and going out.
You will have an increase in birth control expenses now that you look and feel good.
You get the picture...
Have a great day.
Q over Q and Year over Year is the measure Wall Street uses, no one uses week over week for measuring a companies success. We will close this quarter out with a very nice sustainable growth of scripts and revenue completing our first year on the market. Ignore the noise and watch the real data points that matter. IMS under reports by 40% and Symphony is about 20% when compared to the numbers both Eisai and Arena are releasing.
If you are looking to get rich overnight in this stock that is not going to happen. This is going to be a few more years out...
to 42 million shares. Long term shorts still covering their shorts, a great signal in my book.
Look at ZFGN, the new Bio Tech IPO trying to come out with an obesity drug. They are running the thing way up giving it all kinds of attention. Heaven forbid they actually pay attention to the drug that has actually been approved and has multiple indications and great success stories all ready. Read about about the company and how big the obesity market is and how successful they will be if they can get a drug approved... SERIOUSLY, you can't make this stuff up.