Be patient, Belviq will get world wide approval as a smoking drug where the risk/benefit is overwhelmingly positive. Go look at the chantix forecasts and market potential that Pfizer has pushed for years. Once approved for smoking it will get scripted for weight loss.
This appears to be the strategy for getting Belviq approved in EU and others.
While this is true it has nothing to do with the original post. Management was very clear that they were ramping up research budget to move pipeline forward., so no surprises there.
First, I have not seen over exuberance for a year. Second, Stock price clearly is not in line with norms and we have been manipulated for some time so you can't read anything into that, IMHO.
I am underwater, and have been very upfront about it. But I have purchases under 2 bucks that make it easier to look at. Ignore the noise, one day you will wake up to find Arena trading over 5 billion market cap if the science proves to be revolutionary.
You have not been fooled in any way. Belviq works, Eisai spent millions just for the right to sell it, they continue to spend millions spreading the news to doctors about this amazing drug. Everyone underestimated how resistant the market was to weight loss drugs, many in here, on Wall Street and at both companies. 60,000 doctors have tried the drug on at least one of their patients, 70% insurance coverage as of October.
Be patient if are really long and if you are short, enjoy what time you have left.
A long is a long because they have a positive thesis on the company. Yes they will tell you their reasoning with a bias but that is to be expected. They believe enough in the thesis to put their hard earned money into this investment. If you are invested in Arena you better have a strong understanding of why, and you better monitor to make sure they why is still in play. You should not be investing because someone you know or read says hey buy, we are going to pop by November. Go to the web, Facebook, drugs dot c0m belviqsuccess, you will find thousands of comments and feedback. The drug works.
Belviq is not running the company into bankruptcy it is actually producing cash flow. Cash flow that is growing quarter over quarter....
Eisai marketing requirement is best efforts, how do you enforce that? The committee is controlled by no one it is split up 50/50 with Arena folks and Eisai folks.
So yest they do have some input but no say.
40 million short shares would love to be able to buy up the offering without diving the prices higher by going to the markets.... I believe Baba is correct any kind of offering would be over subscribed but we have a few more options and a lot of time left before that decision has to be made if it will ever have to be made. But I am sure they have a plan B, C, and D.
I have been unhappy with several decisions that management made along the way like putting all our eggs in one basket, betting that Eisai would be able to roll out for the entire world when they were having such trouble with the US. Selling the rest of the world for pennies on the dollar compared the the US. Stating that they could get the EU's concerns answered but that they just needed a little more time before the final decision and then over a year later we still have no plan for moving forward and then they pawned off the responsibility onto Eisai to dodge the dropped ball and out right misrepresentation of the facts. The decision to start burning 40 million more a year to move the pipeline forward when Belviq was clearly having resistance in the market and the take up was going to be a lot slower then anticipated and planned. Maybe they should have moved only a few forward.
But those decisions were made by Jack and others at the company. That does not change the science for me or the size of the markets their drugs are going to address. I had to decide for myself were these mistakes in my eyes enough to change my thesis. For me the answer was no, Eisai is doing their job growing sales quarter over quarter and Arena is advancing the indications for Belviq and their pipeline.
A thousands different ways to skin a cat, and I don't have all the answers and I am not perfect, I in fact am very imperfect. I will trust they had more insight and better information then I did and do, so I stayed with the investment and continue to add to it.
Nope, don't think it is good at all. Not happy with it in any way, but for me this was a long term play. Hind sight is always 20/20.
This has also been a concern of mine, when Jack says he is cheap, it is a lie. He burning money "like a bunch of drunk sailors", to quote Ronald Regan... But what can we do? Jack is not being held accountable, the board does nothing. We have way to many people on staff for the amount of work that is being done today, IMO. Belviq should be providing enough cash flow to slow the burn rate significantly in the next few quarters if they stay on their current growth curve.
We are eligible for 176 million in regulatory and development milestone payments per the slide during the presentation. Now we won't get all of that but some of that will replenish the cash without further dilution. This is going to be a tight horse race and I think many large shorts are betting they will be able to cover with a secondary offering.
Did I post anywhere I loved anyone in the post?
If they are so corrupt and so bad, then they will destroy the company, sell and go away or short all you can and reap the rewards if you are right or the pain if you are wrong. I for one am looking at the big picture and with that said am fully aware of the consequences for failure on the share price.
Nope go back and listen to their CC, the 70% deadline was tied to their year end not calendar year end. Their fiscal ends March 2015...
That was my point Arena has nothing to do with marketing.. Sitting here bashing management over sales and marketing results is pointless. Arena has only one thing to do these days. Make Belviq, and expand the pipeline and other Belviq indications... They have no marketing responsibility and any success for increase in sales and market penetration is all on Eisai.
Common hedge, if a company has 2 million shares outstanding and we have another 1 million shares shorted we have 3 million longs. That is 150% of the float, yes the additional 1 million shares are now borrowed and owed back as some point.. Shorting creates more shares out of thin air impacting supply and demand... Instead of having to pay up to get longs to sell, they only need to buy shorted shares...
I am happy with a 5% increase in ownership during a time when the price was under pressure, over a decrease in ownership.
over 5 months ahead of schedule and ahead of guidance. How about giving them a thumbs up for blowing out that guidance over and over. Insurance coverage will be closer to 80% by their 70% deadline maybe even higher...
Or, you can keep posting FUD and personal attacks on Arena management.
Make it a great day.
In the short run a stocks price is a popularity contest, but in the long run it is a voting machine.
Institutional ownership now at 49.15% a nice pop up from the 46% area... Looks like they were buying into all that shorting...
Why admit you are wrong when you can make money proving you were right, by skating the rules and manipulating the stock price down. They were wrong on their bet against Belviq being approved, however, they have been successful and right about Arenas stock price. The successfully drove new buyers away and got some longs to jump ship taking this down to low 3's to times.