In the short run maybe, but eventually the smoke clears and the mirror is broken.
They blamed the REMS as the cause for limited interest. Now they believe the relaxed REMS will open that door. The words used were "I Think", the CEO that makes millions and is in charge of this company says "I think", for that much money you better know.
That is how a short squeeze happens, a stocks value is underestimated and when it becomes obvious the stock is worth so much more the shorts have to bid up that price in order to get shares to cover. If that happens fast enough the B/D will buy in at any price adding fuel to that fire.
That has not been working here, retail understands what they have and they are holding through all of the dips and quick sell offs. In fact many are buying these shorted shares with the intention of holding them for much higher prices. Tutes are buying into that selling as well. When we finally get sales and guidance and the company starts to hit those numbers there won't be a lot of shares to buy to cover those short positions.
Had we gotten the 30 day waiver maybe but since we did not, games will be played and we will more then likely run up to that price as we run up to launch day. So by June 8, 2013 we might be in the 9.50-10.00 range going into launch.
Not sure I would short this, still to early in the game and the risk is still there. Might use put options though if they are far enough out.
"I think" nice safe harbor words to use. He stated it 2 times in that response.
FMC and all the other institutions are in VVUS big time and they realize they bought it up hook line and sinker. They need to get out but if they all run for the doors they get crushed. So this is the classic pump and dump, the stock gets moved up even with bad news.
The investors in VVUS have ignored.
-Missed quarter - expected
-53 million loss - signs burn is not under control
-Toxic financing deal - totally ignored, management did not want to kill the golden goose so they used debt
-5 million in stale expired inventory - signs that sales are no where near what management expected so now they cry to the FDA to allow them a 36 month shelf life. So they are going to sell stale less potent scripts which means results will be even lower.,
-Generic scripts are being written
-Belviq now on the market starting next month
-Institutional ownership is not increasing with all the sales volume signs that distribution could be happening
-Fighting between management and largest shareholders - Large investors not happy with execution of promises
-Fighting between management and the BOD - not on same page disagree about path ahead
-Only 3-4 months of cash to support the company before dilution or more debt will be needed
-EU rejected and said a 3 year CV will be needed and the FDA ignored this issue
-Long term use of Top has serious side effects and lawsuits could be on the horizon cutting even more into their cash position. Fortunately, most management are attorneys so they can run the cases internally.
A lot going against the company.
Management has been talking about partners for a while. And it is not just earnings, its the 5 million in stale inventory, its a burn rate of 53 million for the quarter, its insider selling, its Belviq will now be on the shelves, generic can be scripted cheaper, it is FMC bending over backwards to try and paint a nice picture that was biased and desperate. Wall Street can smell blood and when they do they will pounce.
Don't get me wrong, I think there is room in this market for everyone, but my fear is this is looking like a pump and dump. Tired of the crooks taking money away from legit investors.
Also they had a large amount of inventory expire so instead of figuring out the problem, they are going to cry to the FDA to allow them to have a shelf life of 36 months. So now they want to sell a drug thats stale and less potent.
Almost laughable if it was not so wrong and criminal, but you can bet the FDA will bend over backwards for these crooks. They have been the whole time, payollaa gets a lot of things done.
I think you need to learn to use the search bar. With key words you can find out all you need to know. We longs do not need to convince you to invest in ARNA. We don't need to justify why we invested in ARNA. Clearly the media does not like or care about Arena, hell even CNBC got almost everything wrong in their report yesterday on good news.
VVUS misses revenue, burns through another 53 million bucks, had to put a toxic debt deal together to help finance their venture, they are running out of money, this quarter only saw 4 million in sales, insiders are selling and the stock is going up. Why do you think a stock goes up ignoring all of the real facts? On hope, prayers or dreams of a buyout? OoooooooKKKKKKK
The longs don't want to you think or reason why just jump on board this moving train, it is going to 300 bucks a share.
Carl Icahn has a new strategy, it is to go long heavily shorted stocks. Eventually they shorts give up and the price recovers. He has now done this a couple times, and if you have big enough guns it is a great strategy.
Many insurance companies have a policy that if generics are available they will only cover the generics. Many obese are on the government insurance programs of Medicare and Medicaid I am not sure if they have the same policy in place. But if you are looking for an out of pocket expense of 50 bucks a month or 7 bucks or less a month I still think they will choose to be cheap.
If the co pay is on par with Qsymia I think your argument holds water. But we won't know until that is all worked out.
Have you asked why they have not given out generics? I have. I did my research and the doctors I talked with said they would never script Top for long term use for weight loss. Weight loss for an obese patient is a long term management proposition. They were not comfortable allowing their patients to be on Top for multiple years at a time. The risks are to high when you stay on it long term. Not my words. Belviq was a new and novel drug so they had no opinion other then to say they would need to wait till the studies were done and review the data and their professional journals for others experience.
4 thumbs down but am I wrong? Did I say something that was not true? I can't get Top and Phen at a fraction of the cost? What exactly was wrong about what I am saying?
FMC have a vested interest in slanting the presentation in their favor, correct? So their opinions are biased. So I take that with a grain of salt.
First Manhattan Co. ("First Manhattan" or "FMC"), an owner-operated investment advisory firm and the beneficial holder of approximately 9.7 percent of the outstanding shares of VIVUS, Inc. ("Vivus") (NASDAQ: VVUS), today filed a presentation with the Securities and Exchange Commission (the "SEC") entitled "VIVUS -- Why Change is Needed Now." FMC will use the presentation in meetings with Vivus shareholders in advance of Vivus' Annual Meeting of Stockholders, which Vivus has scheduled for July 15, 2013.
They have to put lipstick on this pig and dress it up for sale or they will lose their investment.
Time will tell,
I totally disagree with those professionals that see the IP as being very strong and their IP is nothing more then a patent on the combo of 2 generics. The side effects will be the same only difference will be 1 pill vs.2 pills when dosing. If I was to take the drug I would take the 2 pills to save 130 bucks a month and I believe so will many other patients. Doctors have been scripting the combo for years and they were the ones that recognized the weight loss the combo had. VVUS just scalped the idea, patented it and went through the trials to get the combo approved by the FDA.
Your calls on this stock have been wrong that was my point. You should be making fun of yourself.